[TedH42]

Why you shouldn't wear a COVID-19 mask that has a valve

Summary: a mask with a valve spews virus and non-narcissists and those responsible for saving lives avoid/prohibit them.

One would think that it would be obvious that common valved masks are DUST masks that protect ONLY the wearer from inhaling DUST.

I tried to get one, just one, from construction supply places all around - they had already been stripped clean in early February, and haven't had ANY since then.
Makes it rather unpleasant sanding walls extensively repaired with joint compound. Fogged glasses and goggles from makeshift masks.

[Rondec]

The IFR (infection fatality rate) seems to be more in the range of 0.4% (German data that tested 80% of the entire population of one town) to 0.5%-0.8% (a New York study which likely under-estimates due to biased sampling). Also, now we are learning that overall death rates have surged in conjuction with COVID-19, thousands have died at home, in nursing homes, etc. and never tested for COVID-19. Thus, the fatality side of the equation is worse than Iliff thinks.

Illiff estimates only 10 people would die in Shawnee County but apparently citizens over 55 don't count as people in his book. The 130 "aged units" (as President Reagan call them) culled from the population don't matter to Iliff but probably do matter to their friends, relatives, and community.

We also don't know the true percentage required for herd immunity maybe it's 60%, maybe it's higher. In fact, we don't even know if herd immunity works with COVID-19 or how long it lasts. We do know that viruses can mutate and that the greater the total virus population, the greater the chance that some mutation happens somewhere that lets the virus reinfect all those that had it (sparking another global pandemic!).

We also do know that if the infection rate gets high enough, the death rate surges. And we do know that without social distancing, the case rate doubling time of the virus makes it easy to exceed the allowable infection rate. We only get the lower IFR values that Iliff hopes for if the hospitals have capacity. But that requires social distancing. Ergo, Iliff's low death rate projections are incompatible with Iliff's economic reopening strategy.


TL;DNR: Iliff underestimates the death rate, recommends a strategy that will increase the death rate, and pins his hopes on an unproven "herd immunity" and the virus not mutating.

Honestly, I think the biggest questions have to do with what percentage of patients who get covid form adequate antibodies and how long those antibodies last. If the answers to those are not high enough than the whole "herd immunity" question is fairly silly.

I am not pessimistic in this respect and I think probably a decent number of younger people will form good immune responses, but without data, we don't know.

That is why the WHO have been cautious on stating that people are immune long term after getting this infection.

[Serkevan]

I've seen people pull gloves off to operate touch screens and then put them back on, Iv'e seen people wearing nitrile gloves absentmindedly adjust their mask and then rub their eyes.
None of this takes away from the fact that an N95 mask is only effective against virus transmission for a very short period of time, definitely shorter than the time it takes for a mask to turn tan from use, which I have also seen.
The gold standard is all well and good, but very few people even come up to the mine tailings standard.

I was a bit puzzled about people having issues with gloves because after some years of working in a lab the blue gloves become a second skin - I had to stop and realize that proper use is not commonly needed. I use the masks* far less often so I have to be on my toes with them because I don't default to "don't touch anything" mode.

*we have FFP2 masks for "normal" particulate matter and I specifically requested to have half-face solvent vapour masks (the ones with bayonet filters) for when something happens and you have to go in and clean a mess - incidentally those ones really leave you winded after half an hour of constant use and, no matter how cool and crazy-prepared you look like, are absolutely useless for the virus anyway ; the filters we have don't protect against particles and you have an exhalation valve.

[aslyfox]

looks like my hair, what there of it, will be getting longer:

TOPEKA — Gov. Laura Kelly said on Wednesday the state’s coronavirus disaster declaration would be renewed through May 14 and a slate of executive orders would be renewed before most decisions about stay-at-home directives and other mandates shift May 4 to county officials.

Kelly said during a briefing at the Capitol that 500,000 testing kits for COVID-19 had been acquired overseas and the first shipment of 5,000 units had cleared customs. The state will get 10,000 testing kits each week under the deal until the order was filled. The federal government promised 50,000 units would be sent in the next two weeks to raise testing in Kansas, which has had among the lowest per-capita rate in the nation.

“There is no question that expanded testing for COVID-19 is the key to reopening the state and rebuilding our economy,” the governor said. “There is no doubt many parts of the state need stepped-up capability to test Kansans who have symptoms.”

She also said the state had acquired FDA-approved equipment to sanitize N95 masks and make them safe for health care workers originally assigned the gear. It’s possible the masks could be reused by a health-care worker up to 20 times if properly sanitized, but won’t deter the state from seeking to acquire new masks.

The Kansas Department of Health and Environment said the state had 55 clusters of COVID-19. The agency said there were 3,738 confirmed cases of the virus in Kansas and the malady had contributed to 125 deaths. Cases have been confirmed in 78 of the state’s 125 counties . . ..

Kansas coronavirus update: Gov. Laura Kelly to renew directives, scores 500,000 test kits on international market - News - The Topeka Capital-Journal - Topeka, KS

_____________________________________

moving too quickly ? a plateau, to me means a steady level place, not a declining slope

By Philip Bump April 29, 2020 at 11:22 a.m. CDT
Speaking during an interview on Fox News on Wednesday morning, senior White House adviser Jared Kushner suggested. . . “We are on the other side of the medical aspect of this and I think that we have achieved all of the different milestones that are needed,” Kushner said. “The government, the federal government rose to the challenge and this is a great success story and I think that that’s really, you know, what needs to be told.” . . .

The problem with that, though, is that the back of the mountain doesn’t look the way the front did. We saw a steady, exponential rise in confirmed cases and deaths each day for several weeks. But particularly with daily case totals, the period after the peak nationally has looked more like a plateau than a downward slide. . . . . . .

The challenge isn’t that the variability exists, it’s that the pandemic isn’t fading as smoothly as it emerged. While the worst effects of the outbreak may be behind us, that doesn’t offer as much assurance as one might expect.. . . . What’s more, in many states we’ve also seen declines from peaks followed by new increases.

We don’t want to be gloomy. It’s important to realize, though, that the opposite of exponential increase isn’t necessarily exponential decrease. Sometimes instead of things getting better, you have to settle with things not getting worse.

Even where the coronavirus is past its peak, it?s often on a plateau - The Washington Post

---

Last edited by aslyfox; 04-29-2020 at 01:58 PM.

[photoptimist]

Honestly, I think the biggest questions have to do with what percentage of patients who get covid form adequate antibodies and how long those antibodies last. If the answers to those are not high enough than the whole "herd immunity" question is fairly silly.

I am not pessimistic in this respect and I think probably a decent number of younger people will form good immune responses, but without data, we don't know.

That is why the WHO have been cautious on stating that people are immune long term after getting this infection.

Exactly!

There's lots of mixed evidence (What if immunity to covid-19 doesn?t last? | MIT Technology Review) on coronavirus immunity.

On one hand, there's evidence that the human immune system doesn't remember coronaviruses very well -- people can easily get the identical coronavirus 2-3 times a year when it comes to the common cold.

On the other hand, there's evidence that the original SARS coronavirus provoked a stronger immune response although even that may fade in a few years. (Alas, SARS did not recur so scientists don't actually know if any of the 8,000 people that had it were/are truly immune to SARs).

There's also a bit of speculation that people who have a worse case of COVID-19 might end up with a longer-lived immune response and people who did not get very sick might be more susceptible to it if exposed a second time.

It all adds up to a big "we don't know" and that makes some experts wary of using the antibody test results for an "immunity card" that lets some people return to normal life.

[aslyfox]

" want to play a game ? "

virus will ‘go, it’s going to leave,’ even if there’s not a vaccine

the United States will soon be back to operating at 100 percent,. . .

“I don’t want people to get used to this because this virus is going to be gone. And when it’s gone, you want to get back to normal,”. .

“If you don’t have a vaccine, if the virus has gone, we’re like we were before,”

“It’s going to go, it’s going to leave, it’s going to be gone, it’s going to be eradicated.”

guess who made those statements today

hint, sometimes he claims that he speaks sarcastically

[ChrisPlatt]

One would think that it would be obvious that common valved masks are DUST masks that protect ONLY the wearer from inhaling DUST.

I tried to get one, just one, from construction supply places all around - they had already been stripped clean in early February, and haven't had ANY since then.
Makes it rather unpleasant sanding walls extensively repaired with joint compound. Fogged glasses and goggles from makeshift masks.

Automated mail processing DBCS machines operating at 39,500 mailpieces per hour generate a lot of dust.
Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak we were issued N95 dust masks with valve. IIRC they were made by 3M.
Several weeks ago they stopped issuing those. Now only practically useless disposable surgical masks are available.
I'm not sure if they were directed to discontinue use or the N95 masks are now simply unavailable.

Chris

[aslyfox]

interesting concept

in order to rush production of a vaccine for the virus

there will be protection given against liability for mistakes including mistakes that causes injury or death

“Operation Warp Speed.” . . .

According to one administration official, the idea would be to indemnify the major pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies from liability if the vaccines incite sickness or death, and to involve the Pentagon in the testing program. But most of the military’s efforts have focused on defenses against biological weapons, not viruses that arise naturally or are transmitted by community spread.
It is not clear how much federal money the administration might put behind the effort.

Live Updates: F.D.A. Plans to Announce Emergency Use of Coronavirus Drug - The New York Times

‘Operation Warp Speed’ Aims to Rush Coronavirus Vaccine
By Jennifer Jacobs and Drew Armstrong
April 29, 2020, 1:08 PM CDT Updated on April 29, 2020, 2:18 PM CDT
. . . a Manhattan Project-style effort to drastically cut the time needed to develop a coronavirus vaccine, with a goal of making enough doses for most Americans by year’s end.

Called “Operation Warp Speed,” the program will pull together private pharmaceutical companies, government agencies and the military to try to cut the development time for a vaccine by as much as eight months, according to two people familiar with the matter.

As part of the arrangement, taxpayers will shoulder much of the financial risk that vaccine candidates may fail, instead of drug companies.

The project’s goal is to have 300 million doses of vaccine available by January, according to one administration official. There is no precedent for such rapid development of a vaccine.

Vaccine development is typically slow and high risk. The project’s goal is to cut out the slow part, the people said. Operation Warp Speed will use government resources to quickly test the world’s most promising experimental vaccines in animals, then launch coordinated human clinical trials to winnow down the candidates.

The project will cost billions of dollars, one of the people said. And it will almost certainly result in significant waste by making inoculations at scale before knowing if they’ll be safe and effective -- meaning that vaccines that fail will be useless. But it could mean having doses of vaccine available for the American public by the end of this year, instead of by next summer.
The group is discussing which Americans might be vaccinated first, as the medicines would likely roll off production lines in batches, one of the people said. The project would be funded from money already available to the government and won’t require new authority from Congress, one of the people said.. . .

Under the effort, the Defense Department would make its animal research resources available for pre-clinical work on vaccines. . . .

Trump Coronavirus Vaccine: 'Operation Warp Speed' Project News - Bloomberg

who needs safeguards and other safety protocols

[Fogel70]

interesting concept

in order to rush production of a vaccine for the virus

there will be protection given against liability for mistakes including mistakes that causes injury or death



Live Updates: F.D.A. Plans to Announce Emergency Use of Coronavirus Drug - The New York Times







Trump Coronavirus Vaccine: 'Operation Warp Speed' Project News - Bloomberg

who needs safeguards and other safety protocols

This sounds dangerous, but for high risk groups it may save lives even though the vaccine is not fully proven.

But for the general population in low risk groups an unproven vaccine may pose a bigger risk than the virus itself.
If government does not want to take liability for any side effects of the vaccine, I would not be interested in taking it (unless I was in a high risk group).


it was not long ago a vaccine for swine flu was introduced in Europe, caused narcolepsy mainly among children and young adults. This vaccine was later withdrawn from the market.
We may Finally Know why a Flu Vaccine Triggered Narcolepsy | IFLScience

These people could at least get some economic compensation, when they got their lifes ruined.

[automorphism]

Now: where exactly is (any) difference today in such thinking that it is ok to sacrifice "a couple of tens of thousands" of ("hopefully") anonymous citizens to the god of economy?

I think the distinction is a lot more subtle than that. Believe it or not, people will also die and suffer due to the quarantining as well. People in ancient civilizations may have believed that random human sacrifice did something, but it benefited no one. But today, because we shut things down, some people will lose their jobs, and the large amounts of subsequent stress can actually kill them (such as with increased heart problems, suicide, etc.) So, it is not a question of stopping some abstract concept like "the economy" to save some people. Rather, it is trading the suffering of some people for the suffering of others.

[Rondec]

This sounds dangerous, but for high risk groups it may save lives even though the vaccine is not fully proven.

But for the general population in low risk groups an unproven vaccine may pose a bigger risk than the virus itself.
If government does not want to take liability for any side effects of the vaccine, I would not be interested in taking it (unless I was in a high risk group).


it was not long ago a vaccine for swine flu was introduced in Europe, caused narcolepsy mainly among children and young adults. This vaccine was later withdrawn from the market.
We may Finally Know why a Flu Vaccine Triggered Narcolepsy | IFLScience

These people could at least get some economic compensation, when they got their lifes ruined.

Vaccines have had a good record over time of being safe and effective. In the United States, it is not legal to sue drug companies over vaccine side effects. This has been the law for quite awhile (I think since the 80s). There is a vaccine compensation fund that you can apply to if you think you have had some vaccine related issue and it will determine if so and how much to compensate: National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program | Official web site of the U.S. Health Resources & Services Administration

Honestly, it is hard to comment about a vaccine without knowing particulars about the vaccine, but this is probably the only safe way to get herd immunity safely in the population -- that is safely to high risk groups.

As far as vaccines go, there will be pre-production studies done on them (they are already in process), but it really isn't till you can do the post hoc analysis when you've given several million doses, that you can know the minor side effects (some of which could be major, but only present in tiny percentages of the population).

[aslyfox]

. . . As far as vaccines go, there will be pre-production studies done on them (they are already in process), . . .

but that is reportedly what is being planned

skipping those necessary studies to make sure any proposed vaccine is as safe as possible before its release in order to rush it to market

___________________

the statute cited for the idea not being able to sue a company which produces a vaccine appears to be limited in its coverage:

Covered Vaccines
The National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP) covers most vaccines routinely given in the U.S.
For a vaccine to be covered, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) must recommend the category of vaccine for routine administration to children or pregnant women, and it must be subject to an excise tax by federal law.

https://www.hrsa.gov/vaccine-compensation/covered-vaccines/index.html

[Rondec]

but that is reportedly what is being planned

skipping those necessary studies to make sure any proposed vaccine is as safe as possible before its release

___________________

the statute cited for the idea not being able to sue a company which produces a vaccine appears to be limited in its coverage:



Covered Vaccines | Official web site of the U.S. Health Resources & Services Administration

It is the majority of vaccines administered in this country, including DPT, Polio, Gardasil, MMR, Varicella, Flu, etc. The only routine vaccinations that would not be covered would be vaccines that are only recommended for older folks, like Shingrix. Or vaccines that are necessary to travel abroad like Yellow Fever and Typhoid.

As far as "necessary studies" my point is that they are going on right now and will continue to go on until the vaccines are released, maybe in January. That's 8 or 9 months of data that we would have on the vaccines. Is it enough? Well, it certainly will give us an idea of risks of the vaccine. I think the point is that it is not nearly as much data as what you would have to get if you were to release a new vaccine that, say, targeted RSV. And there is a chance that the government chooses the wrong vaccine to produce and ramps up production of one that doesn't provide as good antibody levels and has more side effects than a different one.

[aslyfox]

. . ,. As far as "necessary studies" my point is that they are going on right now and will continue to go on until the vaccines are released, maybe in January. That's 8 or 9 months of data that we would have on the vaccines. Is it enough? Well, it certainly will give us an idea of risks of the vaccine. I think the point is that it is not nearly as much data as what you would have to get if you were to release a new vaccine that, say, targeted RSV. And there is a chance that the government chooses the wrong vaccine to produce and ramps up production of one that doesn't provide as good antibody levels and has more side effects than a different one.

from what I have read, certain proposals are at different stages. that is not what I am saying

If they follow the necessary safety protocols, which takes time that is one thing


if they are rushing the job in order to produce a miracle on an artificial deadline and it turns out they screwed up

that is a horse of a different color

supposedly, the " oxford " is on the old track but advanced and might, might be available sometime next year

It is the majority of vaccines administered in this country, including DPT, Polio, Gardasil, MMR, Varicella, Flu, etc. The only routine vaccinations that would not be covered would be vaccines that are only recommended for older folks, like Shingrix. Or vaccines that are necessary to travel abroad like Yellow Fever and Typhoid. . . .

as far as what is covered by the act, I haven't researched that.

all I can say is that one of the announced goals of one major political party is to give manufacturers immunity from liability for producing a new vaccine for this virus

I wonder why if it is already covered ?

[Rondec]

from what I have read, certain proposals are at different stages. that is not what I am saying

If they follow the necessary safety protocols, which takes time that is one thing


if they are rushing the job in order to produce a miracle on an artificial deadline and it turns out they screwed up

that is a horse of a different color

supposedly, the " oxford " is on the old track but advanced and might, might be available sometime next year



as far as what is covered by the act, I haven't researched that.

all I can say is that one of the announced goals of one major political party is to give manufacturers immunity from liability for producing a new vaccine for this virus

I wonder why if it is already covered ?

I don't know, as my expectation is that this vaccine will likely be recommended for children, at least eventually.

The issue to me with speeding the process mainly has to do with the fear that the government will back the wrong vaccine. Not all vaccines are created equal. Zostavax was the only shingles vaccine for a long time, but now there is a better one, Shingrix. When you choose a vaccine to back, early in the process, you may back one that isn't as effective as other vaccines in development or, of course one that has more side effects.

Obviously, if the government backs a vaccine and tells a company to go forward with development, there will still be testing done on it. If it turned out to have some really bad side effect, say, Guillain-Barre, then they would have wasted that money and time and would have to choose a different vaccine. But there is a distinct possibility that they choose a vaccine that is adequate, has minimal side effects and they can then vaccinate the public by the beginning of next year.

Basically, they are trying to shave 5 or 6 months off of the development process.