[aslyfox]

. . . Basically, they are trying to shave 5 or 6 months off of the development process.

i have my suspicions, driven by my observations of some, as to motives for " speed "

[ excuse me as I adjust my foil beanie ]

I hope I am wrong

I really do

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Last edited by aslyfox; 04-30-2020 at 06:41 AM.

[Fogel70]

I don't know, as my expectation is that this vaccine will likely be recommended for children, at least eventually.

The issue to me with speeding the process mainly has to do with the fear that the government will back the wrong vaccine. Not all vaccines are created equal. Zostavax was the only shingles vaccine for a long time, but now there is a better one, Shingrix. When you choose a vaccine to back, early in the process, you may back one that isn't as effective as other vaccines in development or, of course one that has more side effects.

Obviously, if the government backs a vaccine and tells a company to go forward with development, there will still be testing done on it. If it turned out to have some really bad side effect, say, Guillain-Barre, then they would have wasted that money and time and would have to choose a different vaccine. But there is a distinct possibility that they choose a vaccine that is adequate, has minimal side effects and they can then vaccinate the public by the beginning of next year.

Basically, they are trying to shave 5 or 6 months off of the development process.

It is most likely much more the 5-6 month they try to shave off. Some say that 18 month is already too optimistic.
Many of vaccines for recent pandemics have taken years to develop as each testing phase needs to be monitored for for a long time before it is safe to assume no reaction will come from the test subjects.

Doing it in less than a year means that each testing phase only gets a few months, which is no where long enough for safety.
FI the narcolepsy cases I mentioned earlier took in average 8 month to develop after vaccination.

Covid-19 vaccine in 18 months? Experts are skeptical. - CNN

[beholder3]

Here are a ton of graphics/stats:
Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as countries fight to contain the pandemic | Free to read | Financial Times

Brazil and Ireland seem on the "growth" path.

UK has a scary daily death rate.

[aslyfox]

speaking of Ireland

may I present the Champ " Tiny Irish Bob Murphy "

You Tube

You Tube

[ I needed a change of pace right now ]

Sammie Davis Jr. reputed to be 5 ' 5 " ( 165.1 cm )

Wilt Chamberlin reputed to be 7 ' 1 " ( 215.9 cm )

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Last edited by aslyfox; 04-30-2020 at 07:04 AM.

[Rondec]

It is most likely much more the 5-6 month they try to shave off. Some say that 18 month is already too optimistic.
Many of vaccines for recent pandemics have taken years to develop as each testing phase needs to be monitored for for a long time before it is safe to assume no reaction will come from the test subjects.

Doing it in less than a year means that each testing phase only gets a few months, which is no where long enough for safety.
FI the narcolepsy cases I mentioned earlier took in average 8 month to develop after vaccination.

Covid-19 vaccine in 18 months? Experts are skeptical. - CNN

It totally depends on the vaccine used and how similar it is to existing vaccines. If you are starting from scratch, you are probably right. On the other hand, we produce millions of doses of flu vaccine every year and the process of generating that does not take years.

If you read about this vaccine attempt, for instance: https://www.upmc.com/media/news/040220-falo-gambotto-sars-cov2-vaccine It appears that the researchers are going on an existing coronavirus research into vaccines to create a new vaccine specifically for COVID 19. The point is not to reinvent the wheel, but rather use basic knowledge that we already have about vaccine creation and make something that is similar to the stuff we know that works.

Of course, that is no guarantee, but I am not nearly as pessimistic as you all seem to be.

[aslyfox]

will the actions of some in California create the next crisis ?

The California Police Chiefs Association has told its members that Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) plans to announce Thursday that all beaches and state parks will be closed effective Friday. The anticipated move follows a weekend on which thousands of people took advantage of warm weather and flocked to California beaches in violation of the state’s social distancing restrictions, prompting Newsom to warn of the potential of a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak.

“After the well-publicized media coverage of overcrowded beaches this past weekend, in violation of Governor Newsom's Shelter in Place Order, the Governor will be announcing tomorrow that ALL beaches and all state parks in California will be closed, effective Friday, May 1st,” the notification to police chiefs said. “We wanted to give all of our members a heads up about this in order to provide time for you to plan for any situations you might expect as a result, knowing each community has its own dynamics. … State Parks personnel will be out … to help support local efforts as well.” . . .

In a television interview broadcast Wednesday, Newsom voiced frustration with residents who crowded the beaches. Asked if he thinks the worst of the pandemic has passed in California, he warned that it might not have.

“If people just assume, like they did in Newport Beach over the weekend, that the virus is going to take the weekend off or maybe go on summer vacation, then we’re in real trouble, with a potential second wave that erases all the progress and potentially puts literally tens of thousands of lives at risk,” he said on NBC’s “Today” show.

Coronavirus live updates: U.S. unemployment claims rise by 3.8 million; vaccine effort is ramped up - The Washington Post

tick tock, tick tock

[Wheatfield]

OK, so meat packers are required to go back to work in the USA via an Executive Order that relieves the packing plants of liability if their people get sick and possibly die. Who then takes this liability on? Does it become a Federal Government liability or are the employees being thrown under the bus?

[photoptimist]

It totally depends on the vaccine used and how similar it is to existing vaccines. If you are starting from scratch, you are probably right. On the other hand, we produce millions of doses of flu vaccine every year and the process of generating that does not take years.

If you read about this vaccine attempt, for instance: COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Shows Promise It appears that the researchers are going on an existing coronavirus research into vaccines to create a new vaccine specifically for COVID 19. The point is not to reinvent the wheel, but rather use basic knowledge that we already have about vaccine creation and make something that is similar to the stuff we know that works.

Of course, that is no guarantee, but I am not nearly as pessimistic as you all seem to be.

The core problem with COVID-19 is that we actually haven't invented the wheel yet for either this virus or related ones. Thus, we can't quickly adapt a known working vaccine system to COVID-19 with any assurance it will work. Heck, we don't even know if having antibodies to COVID-19 confers lasting immunity (or any immunity) to COVID-19. Yes, it's fairly clear that people who have survived a bout of COVID-19 don't seem to get instantly reinfected by COVID-19 and they have antibodies to COVID-19 but it is the antibodies that are protecting them or is it some other aspect of their immune system that protects them?

One universal problem in medical research is that every researcher is very confident that they've got the solution. These researchers are often top-flight scientists who are used to being right. Moreover, in order to attract funding and high-quality collaborators, proponents of a vaccine technology must project confidence in the correctness of their approach.

However, as we have seen in the political sphere (as in the scientific sphere), human confidence is an abysmal predictor of the truth. Confidence and correctness don't correlate very well.

That said, the fact that there are more than 100 groups working on vaccines certainly increases the chance that someone will find something. The only challenge is to avoid the natural human desire to pick the winner as soon as possible and throw all our resources behind the best option. The most promising vaccines early on might well fail in later phases. The optimal strategy might be to fund industrial production of multiple prototype vaccines even as trials are ongoing. That might seem like an expensive and wasteful strategy but with thousands of lives being lost each day and trillions of dollars in accumulating economic damage, now is not the time to put all the eggs in one shaky basket.

[brewmaster15]

So Florida is openning up alot of the state and their Governor who has been criticized for being slow to respond to the pandemic was recently quoted to be down playing the pandemic.

Florida will start to reopen May 4, but for now Miami-Dade and two other counties won't be included - CNN

A lot has been done to promote fear," DeSantis said. "We haven't seen an explosion of new cases."

I find it interesting that Florida no longer reports covid 19 death stats or nursing home ones.



Florida Stops Medical Examiners From Releasing Coronavirus Death Data: Report

Call me inherently skeptical in nature but if thats not suspicious, Im not sure what is.

AL

[Serkevan]

OK, so meat packers are required to go back to work in the USA via an Executive Order that relieves the packing plants of liability if their people get sick and possibly die. Who then takes this liability on? Does it become a Federal Government liability or are the employees being thrown under the bus?

They are not being thrown under the bus, they clearly have the right to quit their jobs and become unemployed .

[slartibartfast01]

So Florida is openning up alot of the state and their Governor who has been criticized for being slow to respond to the pandemic was recently quoted to be down playing the pandemic.

Florida will start to reopen May 4, but for now Miami-Dade and two other counties won't be included - CNN




I find it interesting that Florida no longer reports covid 19 death stats or nursing home ones.



Florida Stops Medical Examiners From Releasing Coronavirus Death Data: Report

Call me inherently skeptical in nature but if thats not suspicious, Im not sure what is.

AL

You would think if the numbers were low he would be proud to announce them.

[aslyfox]

OK, so meat packers are required to go back to work in the USA via an Executive Order that relieves the packing plants of liability if their people get sick and possibly die. Who then takes this liability on? Does it become a Federal Government liability or are the employees being thrown under the bus?

They are not being thrown under the bus, they clearly have the right to quit their jobs and become unemployed .

and if they refuse to show up, they are not eligible for unemployment

By
Tony Romm
April 30, 2020 at 7:08 a.m. CDT
Iowa, Oklahoma and other states reopening soon amid the coronavirus outbreak are issuing early warnings to their worried workers: Return to your jobs or risk losing unemployment benefits.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/30/republican-states-unemployment-benefits/

[photoptimist]

XKCD du jour:

[bertwert]

Today's xkcd is relevant (and funny) - quite a few recent ones are good.

[bertwert]

XKCD du jour:

Oh dear...