Coronavirus

**aslyfox** · 05-02-2020, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by swanlefitte

If i remember correctly the average mean is 5 days with 1% longer than 14 days.
Still to early to know.

my point exactly

brewmaster15 · 05-02-2020, 05:09 PM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by aslyfox

can some one help me out

the first opening of the restrictions was Thursday isn't that correct. in Georgia if my memory is correct

there is a known incubation time between exposure to the virus and signs of infection - 14 days as I understand it

so how is can this be accurate ?

Coronavirus live updates: Pelosi, McConnell jointly decline Trump administration?s offer of rapid coronavirus testing for Capitol Hill - The Washington Post

another child like lie, a lie easily disproved

EXACTLY. For all the talk of doing things in a smart sensible and safe manner based on conditions.. we obviously have a state Governor that isnt basing the decision to open on anything except his desire to get his states economy going now... even if it obviously isnt ready for that and everyone can see it, even adjoining states and the white house.

Its no different though than whats going on in Florida... openning things up while simultaneously stopping the reporting of Covid related deaths and nursing home deaths.

The pressure to re-open is causing it to be done prematurely. .History repeats itself...this happened during the spanish flu.

The problem is when the decisions in dealing with this pandemic are left to people with little clue as to how sciences and diseases work.. bad decisions are often made.

AL

reeftool · 05-02-2020, 05:21 PM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by photoptimist

Aye! There's the rub!

"Normal life" requires social proximity -- people going to restaurants, parties, churches, games, shops, etc.

"Safe as possible" requires social distance -- people avoiding restaurants, parties, churches, games, shops, etc.

It's a major impasse!

The only "tweak" that can give most people a normal life without digging hundreds of thousands or millions of graves is intensive testing and compliance with contact tracing. That lets more than 95% of the population have a safe, normal life while requiring only 5% or less to stay home and self quarantine for a few weeks. Of course, there's two YUGE problems with tests-and-trace: 1) a significant fraction of the US population that would consider test-and-trace to be not a normal life; 2) the person in charge of testing has consistently underfunded the effort while consistently lying about the extensiveness of the program.

The core challenge with COVID-19 is that it truly knows if people are naughty or nice when it comes to compliance with social distancing, disinfection, compliance, quarantines, etc. The virus is entirely immune to bluster and the rationalizations people use to cheat.

The one thing that everyone needs to keep in mind is that all the social distancing isn't going to end this virus. It's out there in the wild and isn't going away. It's extremely contagious but doesn't cause most people to get seriously sick. There is no cure or vaccine at this point and probably won't be for a long time. Sooner or later, millions are going to catch it. The big question is are we all willing to spend the rest of our lives hiding away in fear? What if there is no herd immunity? There have been some reports from S Korea of reinfection. There are also reports that after 90 days, no antibodies show up in some tests. What then? How long can our countries stay locked down before our economies collapse and society begins to break down? Safety is an illusion. If these lockdowns continue much longer, the end result will be worse than the virus.

swanlefitte · 05-02-2020, 05:55 PM - **2 Likes**

Originally posted by reeftool

The big question is are we all willing to spend the rest of our lives hiding away in fear?

That is not the big question. The answer is easily "yes". We do everyday. Hurricanes, tornados of course. A raincoat is hiding from the rain. Throw away questionable food, keep your pets in during fireworks, skip a trip in a snow storm, leave a crowded store are all hiding.
The big question is what will we trade as individuals, a society, and world to come out from hiding. Unfortunately this depends on balancing many uncertainties with many options and many values but to pretend it is either this or that and not nuanced is dishonest.

**aslyfox** · 05-02-2020, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by brewmaster15

EXACTLY. For all the talk of doing things in a smart sensible and safe manner based on conditions.. we obviously have a state Governor that isnt basing the decision to open on anything except his desire to get his states economy going now... even if it obviously isnt ready for that and everyone can see it, even adjoining states and the white house.

Its no different though than whats going on in Florida... openning things up while simultaneously stopping the reporting of Covid related deaths and nursing home deaths.

The pressure to re-open is causing it to be done prematurely. .History repeats itself...this happened during the spanish flu.

The problem is when the decisions in dealing with this pandemic are left to people with little clue as to how sciences and diseases work.. bad decisions are often made.

AL

what gets me is the claim by the white house advisor that the opening of the states have been down safely

there hasn't been the time necessary to tell if the opening states did it safely or not

swanlefitte · 05-02-2020, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by aslyfox

there hasn't been the time necessary to tell if the opening states did it safely or not

What number over what time period could be claimed as successful?
If they double in a week one can claim they would have anyway. If they go down you just claim it. Or you claim the opposite. If they go down they would have gone down twice as much. If they go up you claim it didn't work. Compared to what prediction or what other state?

**aslyfox** · 05-02-2020, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by swanlefitte

What number over what time period could be claimed as successful?, , ,

a number up or down

after a longer period of time, certainly not 3 days

my WAG is on an increase of infections by the end of the month

I would love a reduction but won't bet on it

RoxnDox · 05-02-2020, 09:05 PM - **3 Likes**

Originally posted by gifthorse

There, in a nutshell, is why some of us resist these decrees. The capriciousness of many of theses edicts. If you walk with a dog, it's all good. If walking is just for exercise or relaxation, the neighbors will be dropping like flies? I go to Wallyworld and pick up a six pack? No problem. Need food? Yeah, that's good. Wander into the electronic area and a wave of death follows me? Nonessential, you say? My cell phone requires a card found in the electronics section of the store and no card means no cell phone. But some bureaucrat has waved the royal sceptre and left me without a phone! Most of these commandments don't really affect my life (I really can live without a cell phone) but when the governor of Washington state recently suggested that protesters were "bordering on insubordination", I took great offense. Governor, I'm not your subordinate! I'm the public and you are the public servant. Any would be ruler who forgets that needs to be sent to Corruption Acres where the former politicians go to retire.

I am a resident of Washington. I fully support our Governor's efforts to control the spreading of the virus, including all of his decrees. Our state laws expressly grant him the authority to take such actions as deemed necessary in a public health emergency, so yes, the term 'insubordination' is appropriate. Until such time as he and the state's health officers declare the emergency has passed, or until another person is elected Governor, he is the top of the hierarchy here. FYI, I am also a veteran USAF officer, I have guns, and I swore an oath that has no end date on it. That oath assumes I have a brain and the ability to judge what does and does not violate the law. Our Governor's actions do not.

RoxnDox · 05-02-2020, 09:12 PM - **3 Likes**

Originally posted by reeftool

The one thing that everyone needs to keep in mind is that all the social distancing isn't going to end this virus.

It's not supposed to end this virus. It's supposed to slow down the spread so healthcare systems aren't overwhelmed. And it works.

gifthorse · 05-02-2020, 09:25 PM - **2 Likes**

Originally posted by RoxnDox

I am a resident of Washington. I fully support our Governor's efforts to control the spreading of the virus, including all of his decrees. Our state laws expressly grant him the authority to take such actions as deemed necessary in a public health emergency, so yes, the term 'insubordination' is appropriate. Until such time as he and the state's health officers declare the emergency has passed, or until another person is elected Governor, he is the top of the hierarchy here. FYI, I am also a veteran USAF officer, I have guns, and I swore an oath that has no end date on it. That oath assumes I have a brain and the ability to judge what does and does not violate the law. Our Governor's actions do not.

There's the problem. "Until such time as he..." By the law you champion, if the governor decides the "emergency" is eternal, he is legally ruler for life (Or "top of the hierarchy" as you put it). We have much in common. I was born in Washington. I too am a veteran. I don't have guns. (That doesn't prevent me from believing in the Second Amendment, I don't have a lawyer, either.) I also swore an oath. But the oath I took was to the Constitution not a governor. You can keep your governor. I'll keep the Constitution.

swanlefitte · 05-02-2020, 09:43 PM

WA is interesting in that what constitutes a state of emergency seems to be undefined. In MN it holds for 5 days and then congress can pass a resolution to end it.

The proposed resolution would have ended the executive orders Walz issued and allow elected members of the Minnesota Legislature to vote on what rules, orders, and policies be put in place to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Minnesota House blocks resolution to end Walz? Peacetime Emergency declaration

Perhaps in WA impeachment is needed. I have to assume there is a legal way to end a state of emergency.

**sbh** · 05-02-2020, 11:07 PM

Originally posted by RoxnDox

It's not supposed to end this virus. It's supposed to slow down the spread so healthcare systems aren't overwhelmed. And it works.

Plus having more time for a vaccine.

Social distancing in theory can end the virus but at a rather high price that our society as such probably wouldn't want to pay.

MarkJerling · 05-02-2020, 11:30 PM - **2 Likes**

Originally posted by gifthorse

There's the problem. "Until such time as he..." By the law you champion, if the governor decides the "emergency" is eternal, he is legally ruler for life (Or "top of the hierarchy" as you put it). We have much in common. I was born in Washington. I too am a veteran. I don't have guns. (That doesn't prevent me from believing in the Second Amendment, I don't have a lawyer, either.) I also swore an oath. But the oath I took was to the Constitution not a governor. You can keep your governor. I'll keep the Constitution.

I've been scanning the constitution and try as I may, I can't find the section that says: "In the event of a pandemic all your rights are guaranteed as always"

mkgd1 · 05-02-2020, 11:57 PM

Originally posted by MarkJerling

I've been scanning the constitution and try as I may, I can't find the section that says: "In the event of a pandemic all your rights are guaranteed as always"

The constitution specifically prohibits the government from infringing certain rights. They are not granted by the government.as they do not belong to the government. Most of the restrictions put in place by the governors are by executive fiat, not legislation many of them would not stand up to judicial scrutiny. Pandemic as a reason to seize power is not in the constitution.

Dartmoor Dave · 05-03-2020, 01:09 AM - **8 Likes**

There are two sorts of people:

Those whose primary consideration is how their actions affect themselves. (I want all my privileges back NOW, and I don't care if that means some other people have to die.)

Those whose primary consideration is how their actions affect their community. (We all need to give up some of our privileges for a while to try to minimise how many people die.)

Really, you only need to establish which of those two groups any individual falls into and you'll know everything you need to know about their opinions about Covid all in one.

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05-02-2020, 04:35 PM	#3121
aslyfox Seeker of Knowledge Join Date: Aug 2016 Location: Topeka, Kansas Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 24,581	Originally posted by swanlefitte If i remember correctly the average mean is 5 days with 1% longer than 14 days. Still to early to know. my point exactly

05-02-2020, 05:09 PM - 1 Like	#3122
brewmaster15 Veteran Member Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: CT Posts: 1,860	Originally posted by aslyfox can some one help me out the first opening of the restrictions was Thursday isn't that correct. in Georgia if my memory is correct there is a known incubation time between exposure to the virus and signs of infection - 14 days as I understand it so how is can this be accurate ? Coronavirus live updates: Pelosi, McConnell jointly decline Trump administration?s offer of rapid coronavirus testing for Capitol Hill - The Washington Post another child like lie, a lie easily disproved EXACTLY. For all the talk of doing things in a smart sensible and safe manner based on conditions.. we obviously have a state Governor that isnt basing the decision to open on anything except his desire to get his states economy going now... even if it obviously isnt ready for that and everyone can see it, even adjoining states and the white house. Its no different though than whats going on in Florida... openning things up while simultaneously stopping the reporting of Covid related deaths and nursing home deaths. The pressure to re-open is causing it to be done prematurely. .History repeats itself...this happened during the spanish flu. The problem is when the decisions in dealing with this pandemic are left to people with little clue as to how sciences and diseases work.. bad decisions are often made. AL

05-02-2020, 05:21 PM - 1 Like	#3123
reeftool Pentaxian Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Upstate New York Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 9,554	Originally posted by photoptimist Aye! There's the rub! "Normal life" requires social proximity -- people going to restaurants, parties, churches, games, shops, etc. "Safe as possible" requires social distance -- people avoiding restaurants, parties, churches, games, shops, etc. It's a major impasse! The only "tweak" that can give most people a normal life without digging hundreds of thousands or millions of graves is intensive testing and compliance with contact tracing. That lets more than 95% of the population have a safe, normal life while requiring only 5% or less to stay home and self quarantine for a few weeks. Of course, there's two YUGE problems with tests-and-trace: 1) a significant fraction of the US population that would consider test-and-trace to be not a normal life; 2) the person in charge of testing has consistently underfunded the effort while consistently lying about the extensiveness of the program. The core challenge with COVID-19 is that it truly knows if people are naughty or nice when it comes to compliance with social distancing, disinfection, compliance, quarantines, etc. The virus is entirely immune to bluster and the rationalizations people use to cheat. The one thing that everyone needs to keep in mind is that all the social distancing isn't going to end this virus. It's out there in the wild and isn't going away. It's extremely contagious but doesn't cause most people to get seriously sick. There is no cure or vaccine at this point and probably won't be for a long time. Sooner or later, millions are going to catch it. The big question is are we all willing to spend the rest of our lives hiding away in fear? What if there is no herd immunity? There have been some reports from S Korea of reinfection. There are also reports that after 90 days, no antibodies show up in some tests. What then? How long can our countries stay locked down before our economies collapse and society begins to break down? Safety is an illusion. If these lockdowns continue much longer, the end result will be worse than the virus.

05-02-2020, 05:55 PM - 2 Likes	#3124
swanlefitte Pentaxian Join Date: May 2015 Location: Minneapolis Photos: Gallery Posts: 4,068	Originally posted by reeftool The big question is are we all willing to spend the rest of our lives hiding away in fear? That is not the big question. The answer is easily "yes". We do everyday. Hurricanes, tornados of course. A raincoat is hiding from the rain. Throw away questionable food, keep your pets in during fireworks, skip a trip in a snow storm, leave a crowded store are all hiding. The big question is what will we trade as individuals, a society, and world to come out from hiding. Unfortunately this depends on balancing many uncertainties with many options and many values but to pretend it is either this or that and not nuanced is dishonest.

05-02-2020, 06:09 PM	#3125
aslyfox Seeker of Knowledge Join Date: Aug 2016 Location: Topeka, Kansas Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 24,581	Originally posted by brewmaster15 EXACTLY. For all the talk of doing things in a smart sensible and safe manner based on conditions.. we obviously have a state Governor that isnt basing the decision to open on anything except his desire to get his states economy going now... even if it obviously isnt ready for that and everyone can see it, even adjoining states and the white house. Its no different though than whats going on in Florida... openning things up while simultaneously stopping the reporting of Covid related deaths and nursing home deaths. The pressure to re-open is causing it to be done prematurely. .History repeats itself...this happened during the spanish flu. The problem is when the decisions in dealing with this pandemic are left to people with little clue as to how sciences and diseases work.. bad decisions are often made. AL what gets me is the claim by the white house advisor that the opening of the states have been down safely there hasn't been the time necessary to tell if the opening states did it safely or not

05-02-2020, 07:01 PM	#3126
swanlefitte Pentaxian Join Date: May 2015 Location: Minneapolis Photos: Gallery Posts: 4,068	Originally posted by aslyfox there hasn't been the time necessary to tell if the opening states did it safely or not What number over what time period could be claimed as successful? If they double in a week one can claim they would have anyway. If they go down you just claim it. Or you claim the opposite. If they go down they would have gone down twice as much. If they go up you claim it didn't work. Compared to what prediction or what other state?

05-02-2020, 07:20 PM	#3127
aslyfox Seeker of Knowledge Join Date: Aug 2016 Location: Topeka, Kansas Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 24,581	Originally posted by swanlefitte What number over what time period could be claimed as successful?, , , a number up or down after a longer period of time, certainly not 3 days my WAG is on an increase of infections by the end of the month I would love a reduction but won't bet on it

05-02-2020, 09:05 PM - 3 Likes	#3128
RoxnDox Pentaxian Join Date: May 2007 Location: Gig Harbor, Washington, USA, Terra Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 4,494	Originally posted by gifthorse There, in a nutshell, is why some of us resist these decrees. The capriciousness of many of theses edicts. If you walk with a dog, it's all good. If walking is just for exercise or relaxation, the neighbors will be dropping like flies? I go to Wallyworld and pick up a six pack? No problem. Need food? Yeah, that's good. Wander into the electronic area and a wave of death follows me? Nonessential, you say? My cell phone requires a card found in the electronics section of the store and no card means no cell phone. But some bureaucrat has waved the royal sceptre and left me without a phone! Most of these commandments don't really affect my life (I really can live without a cell phone) but when the governor of Washington state recently suggested that protesters were "bordering on insubordination", I took great offense. Governor, I'm not your subordinate! I'm the public and you are the public servant. Any would be ruler who forgets that needs to be sent to Corruption Acres where the former politicians go to retire. I am a resident of Washington. I fully support our Governor's efforts to control the spreading of the virus, including all of his decrees. Our state laws expressly grant him the authority to take such actions as deemed necessary in a public health emergency, so yes, the term 'insubordination' is appropriate. Until such time as he and the state's health officers declare the emergency has passed, or until another person is elected Governor, he is the top of the hierarchy here. FYI, I am also a veteran USAF officer, I have guns, and I swore an oath that has no end date on it. That oath assumes I have a brain and the ability to judge what does and does not violate the law. Our Governor's actions do not.

05-02-2020, 09:12 PM - 3 Likes	#3129
RoxnDox Pentaxian Join Date: May 2007 Location: Gig Harbor, Washington, USA, Terra Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 4,494	Originally posted by reeftool The one thing that everyone needs to keep in mind is that all the social distancing isn't going to end this virus. It's not supposed to end this virus. It's supposed to slow down the spread so healthcare systems aren't overwhelmed. And it works.

05-02-2020, 09:25 PM - 2 Likes	#3130
gifthorse Pentaxian Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: Nevada Photos: Gallery Posts: 2,945	Originally posted by RoxnDox I am a resident of Washington. I fully support our Governor's efforts to control the spreading of the virus, including all of his decrees. Our state laws expressly grant him the authority to take such actions as deemed necessary in a public health emergency, so yes, the term 'insubordination' is appropriate. Until such time as he and the state's health officers declare the emergency has passed, or until another person is elected Governor, he is the top of the hierarchy here. FYI, I am also a veteran USAF officer, I have guns, and I swore an oath that has no end date on it. That oath assumes I have a brain and the ability to judge what does and does not violate the law. Our Governor's actions do not. There's the problem. "Until such time as he..." By the law you champion, if the governor decides the "emergency" is eternal, he is legally ruler for life (Or "top of the hierarchy" as you put it). We have much in common. I was born in Washington. I too am a veteran. I don't have guns. (That doesn't prevent me from believing in the Second Amendment, I don't have a lawyer, either.) I also swore an oath. But the oath I took was to the Constitution not a governor. You can keep your governor. I'll keep the Constitution.

05-02-2020, 09:43 PM	#3131
swanlefitte Pentaxian Join Date: May 2015 Location: Minneapolis Photos: Gallery Posts: 4,068	WA is interesting in that what constitutes a state of emergency seems to be undefined. In MN it holds for 5 days and then congress can pass a resolution to end it. The proposed resolution would have ended the executive orders Walz issued and allow elected members of the Minnesota Legislature to vote on what rules, orders, and policies be put in place to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. Minnesota House blocks resolution to end Walz? Peacetime Emergency declaration Perhaps in WA impeachment is needed. I have to assume there is a legal way to end a state of emergency.

05-02-2020, 11:07 PM	#3132
sbh Site Supporter Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Black Forest, Germany Photos: Gallery Posts: 849	Originally posted by RoxnDox It's not supposed to end this virus. It's supposed to slow down the spread so healthcare systems aren't overwhelmed. And it works. Plus having more time for a vaccine. Social distancing in theory can end the virus but at a rather high price that our society as such probably wouldn't want to pay.

05-02-2020, 11:30 PM - 2 Likes	#3133
MarkJerling Moderator Site Supporter Join Date: May 2012 Location: Wairarapa, New Zealand Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 20,406	Originally posted by gifthorse There's the problem. "Until such time as he..." By the law you champion, if the governor decides the "emergency" is eternal, he is legally ruler for life (Or "top of the hierarchy" as you put it). We have much in common. I was born in Washington. I too am a veteran. I don't have guns. (That doesn't prevent me from believing in the Second Amendment, I don't have a lawyer, either.) I also swore an oath. But the oath I took was to the Constitution not a governor. You can keep your governor. I'll keep the Constitution. I've been scanning the constitution and try as I may, I can't find the section that says: "In the event of a pandemic all your rights are guaranteed as always"

05-02-2020, 11:57 PM	#3134
mkgd1 Pentaxian Join Date: Dec 2019 Location: Mohave county Arizona Photos: Albums Posts: 1,076	Originally posted by MarkJerling I've been scanning the constitution and try as I may, I can't find the section that says: "In the event of a pandemic all your rights are guaranteed as always" The constitution specifically prohibits the government from infringing certain rights. They are not granted by the government.as they do not belong to the government. Most of the restrictions put in place by the governors are by executive fiat, not legislation many of them would not stand up to judicial scrutiny. Pandemic as a reason to seize power is not in the constitution.

05-03-2020, 01:09 AM - 8 Likes	#3135
Dartmoor Dave Pentaxian Join Date: Aug 2012 Location: Dartmoor, UK Photos: Gallery Posts: 3,882	There are two sorts of people: Those whose primary consideration is how their actions affect themselves. (I want all my privileges back NOW, and I don't care if that means some other people have to die.) Those whose primary consideration is how their actions affect their community. (We all need to give up some of our privileges for a while to try to minimise how many people die.) Really, you only need to establish which of those two groups any individual falls into and you'll know everything you need to know about their opinions about Covid all in one.