[mroeder75]

I have been trying to watch Georgia but the data has been unreliabe from the beginning.
From april 23.
Wednesday’s DPH count shows that new confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus jumped by more than 900 in a single day. Another count it released at the same time used a different method and showed they only rose by 31.

Georgia's reporting of COVID-19 cases confuses observers

From may 13th.
Where does Sunday take place twice a week? And May 2 come before April 26?
Georgia's latest errors in reporting COVID-19 data confounds critics

I have not looked at this data. It might be that Georgia is a hotspot state if for no reason other than Atlanta Hartsfield International Airport, one of the busiest in the world.

I suspect there will be some truth in the projection that warmer weather will help slow spread. But, I remain concerned about Atlanta particularly, and Georgia more generally for reasons you identify.

[Wheatfield]

Yet we, at least here are advised to get in and out quickly. Circling back means taking more time. Also if i have to wait for the slowest person in the store to find that brand of yogurt in that flavor, 5 minutes, then everybody can move on for the next person to do so and there are only 12 people that is an hour. Now i have to do this wirh eggs, cheese, et c. And 1 ailse is easily 20 minutes. Then i have to circle back through that same aile again to get to the pizza ailse because you have to double back. Wait for those people to get the items i already have anyway. But as we have said i am only in the uncrowded store. Which means i can go down the wrong way in the empty aile and avoid waiting, not pass anybody, and not linger. Since everybody leaves faster the system easily empties as fast as it fills up preventing overcrowding in the first place. I fail to see how that is self centered.

If you are only going into stores when it isn't crowded you have already nullified the self centered part. Why are you so sensitive?

---------- Post added May 14th, 2020 at 03:29 PM ----------

I have not looked at this data. It might be that Georgia is a hotspot state if for no reason other than Atlanta Hartsfield International Airport, one of the busiest in the world.

I suspect there will be some truth in the projection that warmer weather will help slow spread. But, I remain concerned about Atlanta particularly, and Georgia more generally for reasons you identify.

Warm weather didn't slow it down in the southern hemisphere during their late summer. I don't think summer in the northern hemisphere will slow it down. I don't think summer is the deciding factor in flu viruses either. I suspect it's got more go do with the flu season being in the winter and it just runs it's course by the time spring hits.

[GUB]

Warm weather didn't slow it down in the southern hemisphere during their late summer. I don't think summer in the northern hemisphere will slow it down. I don't think summer is the deciding factor in flu viruses either. I suspect it's got more go do with the flu season being in the winter and it just runs it's course by the time spring hits.

Reality would suggest otherwise.
I suspect sunlight hours have a direct cause in why it looks like NZ and Australia are getting on top of it.

[MarkJerling]

Warm weather didn't slow it down in the southern hemisphere during their late summer. I don't think summer in the northern hemisphere will slow it down. I don't think summer is the deciding factor in flu viruses either. I suspect it's got more go do with the flu season being in the winter and it just runs it's course by the time spring hits.

Flu and colds (some colds are also Corona virusses) and the COVID-19 appear to infect more people more easily in winter.

There are three reasons, it's been suggested: Less Vitamin D, more contaminated air (indoor air) and drier, colder air which seems to make the virus live longer on surfaces and in the air.

See, for instance: The real reason germs spread in the winter - BBC Future
And: The Reason for the Season: why flu strikes in winter - Science in the News

With our temperatures now dropping and days becoming shorter, it's a good thing NZ seems to have (largely) shut down transmission now, before winter sets in. We may, of course, see several cycles of outbreak of COVID-19.

[GUB]

it's a good thing NZ seems to have (largely) shut down transmission now, before winter sets in.

Yes that is the greatest fear I have - that we have merely shifted our curve from summer to winter.

[MarkJerling]

Yes that is the greatest fear I have - that we have merely shifted our curve from summer to winter.

As long as everyone coming in to the country is quarantined, we'll hopefully stay on top of it. But, I can't see how we can carry on like this indefinately. At some point, we'll have to bite the bullet and go for herd immunity. I feel COVID-19 is going to become just one of those annual virusses we are subjected to, like the common cold.

[GUB]

As long as everyone coming in to the country is quarantined, we'll hopefully stay on top of it. But, I can't see how we can carry on like this indefinately. At some point, we'll have to bite the bullet and go for herd immunity. I feel COVID-19 is going to become just one of those annual virusses we are subjected to, like the common cold.

Yeah and I hadn't realized till recently that a vaccine is not a given - they have yet to work out how to do one for a caronavirus.
Makes NZ's virus free status even more likely to be a poisoned chalice. But maybe it will be like Sars and burn out.

[MarkJerling]

Yeah and I hadn't realized till recently that a vaccine is not a given - they have yet to work out how to do one for a caronavirus.
Makes NZ's virus free status even more likely to be a poisoned chalice. But maybe it will be like Sars and burn out.

With the amount of infected people around the world it's not going to burn out any time soon. We may have to contend with it for years or forever.

[GUB]

With the amount of infected people around the world it's not going to burn out any time soon. We may have to contend with it for years or forever.

Sars never broke loose like this did it.

[Wheatfield]

Yeah and I hadn't realized till recently that a vaccine is not a given - they have yet to work out how to do one for a caronavirus.

That was news quite a few months ago.

[aslyfox]

. . . We may, of course, see several cycles of outbreak of COVID-19.

With the amount of infected people around the world it's not going to burn out any time soon. We may have to contend with it for years or forever.

not certain about other countries but in the US, the 1918 flu hit in three waves

and the first wave was not the worst

There were 3 different waves of illness during the pandemic, starting in March 1918 and subsiding by summer of 1919. The pandemic peaked in the U.S. during the second wave, in the fall of 1918. This highly fatal second wave was responsible for most of the U.S. deaths attributed to the pandemic.

1918 Pandemic Influenza: Three Waves | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

___________________

to make things worse, reportedly, at least in the US, we continue to struggle with getting reliable testing machines

The Food and Drug Administration warned of inaccuracies in the rapid Abbott coronavirus test

[photoptimist]

Sars never broke loose like this did it.

Ironically, the original SARS was too virulent to spread -- it made almost everyone so sick that it was easy to spot and to contain.

At some level, COVID-19 really is a worst-case pandemic virus because many people can catch it and spread it without any serious symptoms and yet the virus also seriously sickens and kills enough people to be a dangerous health problem. Thus, unlike SARS, COVID-19 can fly under the radar (unless the radar is really good which requires high-frequency testing of a lot of people all the time).

There's a Goldilocks principle at work here:

* SARS is "too strong" to spread far and wide and maximize the virus population.

* The common cold (also caused by coronaviruses) is "too weak" to spread far and wide and maximize the virus population.

* COVID-19 is "just right" for maximizing the virus population (which maximizes human misery).

[bobmaxja]

That the kind of data who really show the effect of the Covid-19.
Yearly statistical death, here the european one, title in french but easy to understand. Country, state , province who hide the data will be for a bad surprise

European Mortality Monitoring Project


---------- Post added 15th May 2020 at 12:42 ----------

Here the curve in yearly curve for Quebec. We got bad infection here .

[aslyfox]

interesting

11:45 a.m.
Dutch National Health Institute recommends single people find a ‘cuddle buddy’ to sustain social distancing
The Netherlands is gradually reopening businesses, gyms, restaurants and schools but still recommending that people keep 1.5 meters, or nearly five feet, away from others, including when friends are visiting in private homes.

That rule complicates intimate relationships between people not already living or partnered together, the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, known as RIVM, has acknowledged. So it has come up with a recommendation: Single people in need should find a “cuddle buddy” or “sex buddy” with whom they can safely partner during the pandemic.

“Discuss how best to do this together,” RIVM suggested, according to the Guardian’s translation. “For example, meet with the same person to have physical or sexual contact (for example, a cuddle buddy or ‘sex buddy’), provided you are free of illness. Make good arrangements with this person about how many other people you both see. The more people you see, the greater the chance of [spreading] the coronavirus.”

The health institute also cautioned that people should refrain from physical relations with someone suspected to have the virus, which spreads easily through close contact and enclosed spaces.

“Don’t have sex with your partner if they have been isolated because of [suspected] coronavirus infection,” RIVM said. “Sex with yourself or with others at a distance is possible.”
By Miriam Berger

Coronavirus live updates: Retail sales plunge 16.4 percent as coronavirus pandemic continues to stifle U.S. economy - The Washington Post

[swanlefitte]

They are talking about droplets from talking in the news. How they always occur and even more the louder you talk with shouting really bad.
This means the phrase "say it, don't spray it." Means to be quieter. It is an impossibility to take it literally.

Now i am curious how much propagation is do to the forced air vs the sound waves. I would think deep low voices would propel droplets farthur than 6 feet and high pitch might create more droplets. This could be used to create an effect strategy against the spread. If we had to talk alternating from falseto to deep bass it would be used like the underhand freethrow in basketball.