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05-25-2020, 06:32 AM - 1 Like   #3796
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
I don't know. Things should be opening up where physicians should be seeing patients in person again. They certainly did here in Virginia at the beginning of May. But I suppose each physician group is going to decide what patients, if any, they are willing to see in their offices and take care of.
No problems here. This last week, I had 3 appointments with different doctors, and yes actually saw the doctors themselves; including a tooth extraction. Of course they are taking precautions, but there's no delay in seeing doctors here.

My eye doctor's office has you wait in the car until they can bring you directly into the exam room, after taking your temperature. Another doctor moved his entire practice and staff downstairs in the same building, to avoid his patients jamming the waiting room, that is for 3 doctors.

At my last doctor's appt., Wednesday; at the check-in; they have a box of face masks that you can take one, if you don't have one. I felt quite at ease as far as the virus at all 3 appointments.

05-25-2020, 08:36 AM - 1 Like   #3797
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QuoteOriginally posted by Serkevan Quote
Like the reality where the state of NY has the highest mortality in the planet?
The state of NY is playing with the numbers and have admitted so. Anyone who dies and shows a positive covid 19 test is listed as a covid 19 death, even it it was a heart attack, stroke, cancer, etc. Some say the death toll is much less and others are saying the death toll is higher because it doesn't count people who died at home. But all this is only in New York City and the surrounding suburbs. The rest of the state, which is very large geographically, has relatively low numbers. My county has only had around 400 cases, the majority in nursing homes after the state forced them to fill empty beds with covid 19 patients. The township I live in has had 4 cases and our village has had no cases.
05-25-2020, 08:39 AM   #3798
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we need to remember " not to paint with too broad of a brush ":

QuoteQuote:
Memorial Day is met with a varied approach, from strict closures to crowded celebrations.

Those looking to celebrate Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial start to summer in the United States, were confronted by the difficulties of how to gather during a pandemic as the country inched closer to the terrible milestone of 100,000 deaths.

Local authorities took varied approaches to regulations, and some communities found creative ways to adjust their celebrations,

[ Memorial Day Beckons, but the Coronavirus Pandemic Looms - The New York Times ]

as beaches — including those in New York City — remained closed and restrictions on public gatherings held.

But elsewhere in the country, crowds flocked to the beaches and parks that were open for the holiday weekend. While many maintained social distancing, others partied with abandon . . . .
Coronavirus Pandemic: Live World News Updates - The New York Times
05-25-2020, 08:44 AM   #3799
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QuoteOriginally posted by reeftool Quote
The state of NY is playing with the numbers and have admitted so. Anyone who dies and shows a positive covid 19 test is listed as a covid 19 death, even it it was a heart attack, stroke, cancer, etc. Some say the death toll is much less and others are saying the death toll is higher because it doesn't count people who died at home. But all this is only in New York City and the surrounding suburbs. . . . .
so how many ' deaths due to the virus ' should be questioned

75 %

50 %

20 %

10 %

how many should be added

10 %

20 %

50 %

75 %

just in NYC

or nation wide

world wide ? ???


Last edited by aslyfox; 05-25-2020 at 08:52 AM.
05-25-2020, 09:23 AM - 1 Like   #3800
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QuoteOriginally posted by reeftool Quote
The state of NY is playing with the numbers and have admitted so. Anyone who dies and shows a positive covid 19 test is listed as a covid 19 death, even it it was a heart attack, stroke, cancer, etc. Some say the death toll is much less and others are saying the death toll is higher because it doesn't count people who died at home. But all this is only in New York City and the surrounding suburbs. The rest of the state, which is very large geographically, has relatively low numbers. My county has only had around 400 cases, the majority in nursing homes after the state forced them to fill empty beds with covid 19 patients. The township I live in has had 4 cases and our village has had no cases.
As I've said a lot of times, the only accurate* measure will be excess death - which is showing that this thing is worse than the numbers say, in the places where the data is available.

Regarding New York City and the surrounding suburbs, considering they take up about... two thirds? of the population of the state, it makes sense to conflate that area with the entire state, demographics-wise. To be super honest, let's count the mortality of New York City proper: the number jumps from 1500 deaths/million to 2300, while the rest of the state is down to 800... which is higher than the average of any country in the world. Yes, that counts Nassau, Suffolk and Westchester as "not New York City", but "upstate" has the population density of a desert.


*To a degree, because lockdowns reduce the prevalence of the flu, traffic accidents and such.
05-25-2020, 10:01 AM   #3801
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it's being reported that certain parts of Europe will be opening up to tourists

QuoteQuote:
MADRID — Spain will nix the required quarantine of international tourists starting July 1, government officials announced Monday as one of the world’s most visited holiday destinations gets ready for the summer travel season.
The move comes after Italy and Greece — which vie for Mediterranean tourism — announced they will welcome foreign travelers starting June 1.. . .
Coronavirus live updates: Memorial Day crowds at beaches, Lake of the Ozarks cause concern - The Washington Post
________________________________

QuoteOriginally posted by jcdoss Quote
. . . Don't doubt the disease can be deadly. How deadly, unfortunately, remains a real big question. It's hard to see huge numbers like this, while knowing at the same time that number is dwarfed by the number of infections that never develop symptoms. My wife and I took separate business trips in late February to DC and Atlanta, and we both got sick a week after we returned. Was that covid? Who knows?

We really need some good seroprevalence data.
nice scrabble tm word I had to look it up

yes, more info is needed and will, over time, be provided

regardless of the ultimate knowledge found

this is known at this time [ and subject to ongoing change ]

the virus is deadly for some but not all

immunity if you survive - not established

vaccine development - hoped for but no guarantee

mutation - feared and may have occurred

further deaths yes

recovery - to what degree and whether long term health effects

to be determined.

IMHO

Last edited by aslyfox; 05-25-2020 at 10:32 AM.
05-25-2020, 11:08 AM   #3802
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QuoteOriginally posted by jcdoss Quote
This is where I wonder if the covidiots might be right and when the next Justinian plague comes around, they'll spread it faster than imaginable.
It could be worse than the bubonic plague and some people would still refuse to wear a mask.

05-25-2020, 02:44 PM   #3803
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QuoteOriginally posted by aslyfox Quote
so how many ' deaths due to the virus ' should be questioned

75 %

50 %

20 %

10 %

how many should be added

10 %

20 %

50 %

75 %

just in NYC

or nation wide

world wide ? ???
I doubt we ever will know exactly. As long as the rules say any death can be claimed as covid 19 if there is a positive test result or "certain symptoms" exist in absence of a test, there will be death certificates issued so the hospitals can collect their money. We know the flu kills old people and even the common cold can. When my wife was in chemo treatment, we lived pretty much locked down back then because we knew how vulnerable chemo patients were. We spent all the holidays away from family that year. But when people with serious underlying conditions die, the reason for death is usually listed as complications due to whatever the condition was, whether it was cancer, asthma , COPD, etc. and not that they died of a "cold". But this year, they have allowed to blame covid 19 so hospitals can collect extra money from Medicare and Medicaid so we will likely never know the real death toll of relatively healthy people who die of covid 19. Write down covid 19, get an extra $13,000.
05-25-2020, 02:58 PM - 2 Likes   #3804
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what is your source for this ?

QuoteQuote:
But this year, they have allowed to blame covid 19 so hospitals can collect extra money from Medicare and Medicaid so we will likely never know the real death toll of relatively healthy people who die of covid 19. Write down covid 19, get an extra $13,000.
Read more at: Coronavirus - PentaxForums.com

there is a federal program that is suppose to reimburse hospitals for losses from diverting non critical care to covid care

but that isn't based on deaths

rather it is based on treatment of covid 19 victims


QuoteQuote:
. . . With states restricting hospitals from performing elective surgery and other nonessential services, their revenue has shriveled. The Department of Health and Human Services has disbursed $72 billion in grants since April to hospitals and other health care providers through the bailout program, which was part of the CARES Act economic stimulus package . . .
Wealthiest Hospitals Got Billions in Coronavirus Bailout - The New York Times

Last edited by aslyfox; 05-25-2020 at 03:22 PM.
05-25-2020, 06:31 PM - 5 Likes   #3805
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QuoteOriginally posted by reeftool Quote
I doubt we ever will know exactly. As long as the rules say any death can be claimed as covid 19 if there is a positive test result or "certain symptoms" exist in absence of a test, there will be death certificates issued so the hospitals can collect their money. We know the flu kills old people and even the common cold can. When my wife was in chemo treatment, we lived pretty much locked down back then because we knew how vulnerable chemo patients were. We spent all the holidays away from family that year. But when people with serious underlying conditions die, the reason for death is usually listed as complications due to whatever the condition was, whether it was cancer, asthma , COPD, etc. and not that they died of a "cold". But this year, they have allowed to blame covid 19 so hospitals can collect extra money from Medicare and Medicaid so we will likely never know the real death toll of relatively healthy people who die of covid 19. Write down covid 19, get an extra $13,000.
I don't believe that. There's an explanation which makes sense, but the reason I don't believe it is knowing doctors. Doctors take their responsibilities very seriously. Some hospital administrator strolls by and "suggests" to frontline doctors that they should put CoVID 19 on a death certificate so the hospital gets more money, and most of them will do anything but that. The typical doctor does not casually allow his medical judgment to be questioned or altered. Especially not for money he isn't going to see. Sure, they are human and you'll get some to go along, but not enough to change the numbers. More often you'll get doctors going straight to the media complaining. Frontline doctors see a hospital administrator just like any other terrible boss - even if they have an MD, clearly they are a failed doctor. Doctors are never worried about getting fired; their skills are always in demand. And these particular doctors are on the front lines of CoVID treatment, somewhat difficult to replace.
05-26-2020, 12:26 AM   #3806
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QuoteOriginally posted by Just1MoreDave Quote
I don't believe that. There's an explanation which makes sense, but the reason I don't believe it is knowing doctors. Doctors take their responsibilities very seriously. Some hospital administrator strolls by and "suggests" to frontline doctors that they should put CoVID 19 on a death certificate so the hospital gets more money, and most of them will do anything but that. The typical doctor does not casually allow his medical judgment to be questioned or altered. Especially not for money he isn't going to see. Sure, they are human and you'll get some to go along, but not enough to change the numbers. More often you'll get doctors going straight to the media complaining. Frontline doctors see a hospital administrator just like any other terrible boss - even if they have an MD, clearly they are a failed doctor. Doctors are never worried about getting fired; their skills are always in demand. And these particular doctors are on the front lines of CoVID treatment, somewhat difficult to replace.
Not from the US obviously, but in my experience (my mother used to be a doctor, still has tens of friends in healthcare) doctors consider hospital management to be little demons, because management's work is to increase profitability and that stops doctors (and nurses, and janitors, and everyone else) from doing their jobs.
05-26-2020, 02:43 AM - 6 Likes   #3807
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QuoteOriginally posted by reeftool Quote
I doubt we ever will know exactly. As long as the rules say any death can be claimed as covid 19 if there is a positive test result or "certain symptoms" exist in absence of a test, there will be death certificates issued so the hospitals can collect their money. We know the flu kills old people and even the common cold can. When my wife was in chemo treatment, we lived pretty much locked down back then because we knew how vulnerable chemo patients were. We spent all the holidays away from family that year. But when people with serious underlying conditions die, the reason for death is usually listed as complications due to whatever the condition was, whether it was cancer, asthma , COPD, etc. and not that they died of a "cold". But this year, they have allowed to blame covid 19 so hospitals can collect extra money from Medicare and Medicaid so we will likely never know the real death toll of relatively healthy people who die of covid 19. Write down covid 19, get an extra $13,000.
I know you believe that, but it isn't true. If you are actually interested in the real information, this is a page that gives a break down of it: Hospital Payments and the COVID-19 Death Count - FactCheck.org Medicare pays based on DRG diagnosis filed with them. They do give an extra 20 percent to care for COVID patients. That has nothing to do with deaths at home or in other locations and no physicians are receiving extra compensation for putting this as a diagnosis on death certificates. It was put into place to make up the difference for the loss of revenue from cancelled care for non-COVID patients that had occurred for much of March and April.

As to the overall death toll, at the end of this crisis, the CDC is going to release a final, calculated tally based on increased deaths we have seen, just like they do at the end of influenza season. This number is likely to be quite a bit higher than the current numbers listed. Their web site currently shows NYC to have had 23,000 excess deaths since February 1st and New York State to have had 12,000 deaths since February 1st. Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

I guess that I would say that this is a real crisis. It does affect folks who are over 70 worse than people younger than 70, but that doesn't mean that those lives aren't important or that those people's deaths were imminent without COVID.

---------- Post added 05-26-20 at 05:55 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by jcdoss Quote
From wikipedia: "Between March 11 and May 2 there were 32,107 deaths in the city; based on past data, this number was higher than expected by 24,172." It goes on to say that some 18k of those are "linked" to covid, some presumed without testing.

Don't doubt the disease can be deadly. How deadly, unfortunately, remains a real big question. It's hard to see huge numbers like this, while knowing at the same time that number is dwarfed by the number of infections that never develop symptoms. My wife and I took separate business trips in late February to DC and Atlanta, and we both got sick a week after we returned. Was that covid? Who knows?

We really need some good seroprevalence data.
NIH is currently doing studies. My father-in-law flew to Belize in February and came back really sick with a bad cough, fever that lasted for a week. They mailed him a kit to collect a blood sample that they will test for antibodies (he won't find out his personal result, but he is still pretty stoked to be doing it).

New York is doing antibody testing and preliminary results show 14 percent of state residents and 20 percent of NYC residents to have antibodies: COVID-19 Testing | Department of Health

Indiana did testing and found that 2.8 percent of their population had antibodies.

There are still real issues, both with the tests (which are prone to false positives) and with the sampling (we tend to sample people who are more likely to have been exposed to COVID). This article kind of breaks down differences between state's approaches: Do the Divergent Results of COVID-19 Antibody Studies Reflect Real Differences? – Reason.com I guess the big thing that all of these studies have brought home to me is that the prevalence in most of the US has been relatively low, even though the death toll has been high. Few of the people who had bad colds in January and February probably had COVID, based on the where we have seen outbreaks and levels of antibodies present now.

It would be wonderful if we did testing and found that 60 percent of most of the population had had this already and we were at herd immunity levels, but clearly that isn't the case anywhere, not even NYC.

Last edited by Rondec; 05-26-2020 at 05:38 AM.
05-26-2020, 03:36 AM - 1 Like   #3808
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I think it's important to remember that this is a problem after taking into account all the measures (masks, social distancing, lockdowns and whatnot) that are in place to hold back the virus.

Downplaying the problem or claiming the numbers are inflated without any backing proof is criminally dangerous.
05-26-2020, 03:44 AM   #3809
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if it costs X in order to save one person

is it worth it ?

what if it costs X 100 to save multiple people

is it still worth it ?


" that is the question "

where is the line ?

especially if there is questions about whether doing " X " actually will result in saving all those people ?

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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
. . . at herd immunity levels, . . .
and as far as I know, " herd immunity " is hoped for but not yet proven by any scientific means

" herd immunity ", like a vaccine, is hoped for but isn't guaranteed

the world is opening up

the dates for one of the world's largest international gathering is coming

imperfect methods currently exist to fight infection, virus and the consequences

will they be enough or will we be engulfed ?

" that is the question "

Last edited by aslyfox; 05-26-2020 at 09:14 AM.
05-26-2020, 04:46 PM - 10 Likes   #3810
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I hope the world isn't opening too soon. The dreaded second wave awaits the unwary. It'll be interesting to see if the number of cases increase after this past weekends fun. Montana has gone 5 days with no new cases and if that continues we'll be moving to phase 3 next Monday.

It may just be me but I don't get that open up now rights thing. What's up with that? The lock downs didn't have anything to do with a person's rights. It had to do with public health. Must just be me.
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