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05-26-2020, 05:56 PM - 2 Likes   #3811
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QuoteOriginally posted by wtlwdwgn Quote
I hope the world isn't opening too soon. The dreaded second wave awaits the unwary. It'll be interesting to see if the number of cases increase after this past weekends fun. Montana has gone 5 days with no new cases and if that continues we'll be moving to phase 3 next Monday.

It may just be me but I don't get that open up now rights thing. What's up with that? The lock downs didn't have anything to do with a person's rights. It had to do with public health. Must just be me.
This song should help explain things.



05-26-2020, 06:10 PM   #3812
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
I know you believe that, but it isn't true. If you are actually interested in the real information, this is a page that gives a break down of it: Hospital Payments and the COVID-19 Death Count - FactCheck.org Medicare pays based on DRG diagnosis filed with them. They do give an extra 20 percent to care for COVID patients. That has nothing to do with deaths at home or in other locations and no physicians are receiving extra compensation for putting this as a diagnosis on death certificates. It was put into place to make up the difference for the loss of revenue from cancelled care for non-COVID patients that had occurred for much of March and April.

As to the overall death toll, at the end of this crisis, the CDC is going to release a final, calculated tally based on increased deaths we have seen, just like they do at the end of influenza season. This number is likely to be quite a bit higher than the current numbers listed. Their web site currently shows NYC to have had 23,000 excess deaths since February 1st and New York State to have had 12,000 deaths since February 1st. Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

I guess that I would say that this is a real crisis. It does affect folks who are over 70 worse than people younger than 70, but that doesn't mean that those lives aren't important or that those people's deaths were imminent without COVID.

---------- Post added 05-26-20 at 05:55 AM ----------



NIH is currently doing studies. My father-in-law flew to Belize in February and came back really sick with a bad cough, fever that lasted for a week. They mailed him a kit to collect a blood sample that they will test for antibodies (he won't find out his personal result, but he is still pretty stoked to be doing it).

New York is doing antibody testing and preliminary results show 14 percent of state residents and 20 percent of NYC residents to have antibodies: COVID-19 Testing | Department of Health

Indiana did testing and found that 2.8 percent of their population had antibodies.

There are still real issues, both with the tests (which are prone to false positives) and with the sampling (we tend to sample people who are more likely to have been exposed to COVID). This article kind of breaks down differences between state's approaches: Do the Divergent Results of COVID-19 Antibody Studies Reflect Real Differences? – Reason.com I guess the big thing that all of these studies have brought home to me is that the prevalence in most of the US has been relatively low, even though the death toll has been high. Few of the people who had bad colds in January and February probably had COVID, based on the where we have seen outbreaks and levels of antibodies present now.

It would be wonderful if we did testing and found that 60 percent of most of the population had had this already and we were at herd immunity levels, but clearly that isn't the case anywhere, not even NYC.
Don’t count antibody test as good method check covid 19
Mostly serious publication point result 50 % false negative
Serological rest may be good first 20 day after infected
After it’s limbo
Look last CDC data about antibody test
05-26-2020, 07:27 PM - 1 Like   #3813
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Daughter, a healthcare worker in our local hospital, came by yesterday to float in the pool and work on her tan before going to saint Pete Florida.
I made her sanitize her hands on arrival...

She said " Dad, I get it but you do realize we all will catch this parasite and it will be with us from now on and never go away"
05-26-2020, 08:05 PM   #3814
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She is fully onboard with sanitizing. Her statement about all of us catching this was a reminder of reality and the ways to be.

05-26-2020, 08:57 PM - 5 Likes   #3815
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Kinda like dying. It’s gonna happen but I am inclined to put it off as long as possible!
05-26-2020, 10:40 PM - 1 Like   #3816
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QuoteOriginally posted by Ex Finn. Quote
Daughter, a healthcare worker in our local hospital, came by yesterday to float in the pool and work on her tan before going to saint Pete Florida.
I made her sanitize her hands on arrival...

She said " Dad, I get it but you do realize we all will catch this parasite and it will be with us from now on and never go away"
I hope you told her it isn't a parasite

05-27-2020, 02:56 AM - 1 Like   #3817
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keep reading reports from across the globe about those who preach what to do

while not practicing what they preach

" surprise, surprise, surprise " to quote " Gomer Pyle USMC "
one explanation claimed by an expert:

QuoteQuote:
. . . Motivations probably vary. Some of the clouded decision-making could be linked to personality traits, Weinberg said. Some may see themselves as above the fray or feel burdened by pressures in their private lives.

Or, it might just be that, like so many other people around the world, some individual officials are struggling to cope with the sudden barrage of new restrictions that limit personal freedom in the name of public health — even if they should know better.

“They’re human just like the rest of us,” Weinberg said. “And they’re fighting against temptations and the urges to breach what are antagonistic restrictions on our lives.”
and it is just as likely that some are jerks who feel privileged and not bound by rules they say we should follow

05-27-2020, 03:02 AM - 1 Like   #3818
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QuoteOriginally posted by dstar Quote
Don’t count antibody test as good method check covid 19
Mostly serious publication point result 50 % false negative
Serological rest may be good first 20 day after infected
After it’s limbo
Look last CDC data about antibody test
If you read the article I linked to, it discussed the variety of antibody tests used in various communities -- mostly in the context of trying to figure out what the true mortality rate was from COVID (they think it is between 0.6 and 0.75 percent). The issue is actually false positives, which with the test used in Miami-Dade County could number 9 percent of total tests and actually out number true positives in a situation where prevalence is only 5 or 6 percent. There is no way that antibodies should only be present for three weeks after infection. Do the Divergent Results of COVID-19 Antibody Studies Reflect Real Differences? – Reason.com

The three week date is the opposite of what you are saying. It typically takes 1 to 3 weeks after infection for antibody levels to become detectable, so doing an antibody test too soon after infection may give a false negative test. After the three week window, the antibodies should be there to stay -- for awhile at least. Since we have no idea if these antibodies even provide immunity or how long immunity to COVID lasts, they may not be there for years, but certainly they shouldn't vanish immediately. Serology Testing for COVID-19 at CDC | CDC

I think the CDC questions how much people should be using antibody testing to guide public policy when it is prone to false results and when we don't know for sure where the antibodies provide immunity and if so, for how long.
05-27-2020, 08:18 AM - 2 Likes   #3819
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not meaning to pry

but if this might apply to any one

be sure to seek help

QuoteQuote:
A third of Americans are showing signs of clinical anxiety or depression, Census Bureau data shows, the most definitive and alarming sign yet of the psychological toll exacted by the coronavirus pandemic.. . .

When asked questions normally used to screen patients for mental health problems, 24 percent showed clinically significant symptoms of major depressive disorder and 30 percent showed symptoms of generalized anxiety disorder.
The findings suggest a huge jump from before the pandemic. For example, on one question about depressed mood, the percentage reporting such symptoms was double that found in a 2014 national survey. . . .

If you or someone you know needs help, call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 800-273-TALK (8255). Crisis Text Line also provides free, 24/7, confidential support via text message to people in crisis when they text to 741741.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/05/26/americans-with-depression-a...c/?arc404=true

and if to someone you might know

urge them to seek help

Last edited by aslyfox; 05-27-2020 at 08:26 AM.
05-27-2020, 08:32 AM - 3 Likes   #3820
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QuoteOriginally posted by RoxnDox Quote
Kinda like dying. It’s gonna happen but I am inclined to put it off as long as possible!
William Shatner - You'll Have Time
05-27-2020, 08:43 AM - 2 Likes   #3821
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A unit at Johns Hopkins is offering a 6-hour "contact tracing" class online to prepare workers in New York to collect Covid-19 information. It has about 240,000 people enrolled. I'm in the middle of it, though I doubt I will actually do contact tracing (lots of phone calls, information gathering) as I am West Coast. It was no charge when I signed up, then had a fee of about $50, but looks to be free again.

So far, learned about virus characteristics, methods of transmission, incubation vs infectious periods, isolation vs quarantine, and some contact tracing scenarios. Not sure what is left...

Signup:
COVID-19 Contact Tracing | Coursera

About:
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/05/11/free-contact-tracing-course-johns-hopkins/

Last edited by SpecialK; 05-27-2020 at 03:23 PM.
05-27-2020, 08:55 AM   #3822
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
As to the overall death toll, at the end of this crisis, the CDC is going to release a final, calculated tally based on increased deaths we have seen, just like they do at the end of influenza season. This number is likely to be quite a bit higher than the current numbers listed. Their web site currently shows NYC to have had 23,000 excess deaths since February 1st and New York State to have had 12,000 deaths since February 1st. Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
I guess that I would say that this is a real crisis. It does affect folks who are over 70 worse than people younger than 70, but that doesn't mean that those lives aren't important or that those people's deaths were imminent without COVID.[COLOR="Silver"]
The CDC must be an evil organisation. Their numbers explicitly state that for every 1 confirmed flu death there 12,38 confirmed Covid-19 deaths happened in the US. There you go.
05-27-2020, 09:24 AM   #3823
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QuoteOriginally posted by Ex Finn. Quote
She said " Dad, I get it but you do realize we all will catch this parasite and it will be with us from now on and never go away"

For those of us who have been working throughout the pandemic, daily risking exposure, infection and possible illness
an attitude of acceptance of inevitability may tend to develop; something akin to "gallows humor" perhaps...

Chris
05-27-2020, 09:37 AM   #3824
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QuoteOriginally posted by ChrisPlatt Quote
For those of us who have been working throughout the pandemic, daily risking exposure, infection and possible illness
an attitude of acceptance of inevitability may tend to develop; something akin to "gallows humor" perhaps...

Chris
my guess it is a coping method

we need to salute and support, however we can, those who are doing what they can and working throughout the pandemic, daily risking exposure, infection and possible illness

[ my DIL is an Xray/CT tech at a hospital in Omaha NE and is one of those who risk exposure ]

_________________

it is being reported by John Hopkins/NBC News that we have passed the 100,000 death line in the US

100,116 US

351,666 worldwide

1,697, 935 confirmed cases in the US
5,607, 365 confirmed cases worldwide

Last edited by aslyfox; 05-27-2020 at 10:27 AM. Reason: added info on deaths/confirmed cases
05-27-2020, 02:47 PM   #3825
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
If you read the article I linked to, it discussed the variety of antibody tests used in various communities -- mostly in the context of trying to figure out what the true mortality rate was from COVID (they think it is between 0.6 and 0.75 percent). The issue is actually false positives, which with the test used in Miami-Dade County could number 9 percent of total tests and actually out number true positives in a situation where prevalence is only 5 or 6 percent. There is no way that antibodies should only be present for three weeks after infection. Do the Divergent Results of COVID-19 Antibody Studies Reflect Real Differences? – Reason.com

The three week date is the opposite of what you are saying. It typically takes 1 to 3 weeks after infection for antibody levels to become detectable, so doing an antibody test too soon after infection may give a false negative test. After the three week window, the antibodies should be there to stay -- for awhile at least. Since we have no idea if these antibodies even provide immunity or how long immunity to COVID lasts, they may not be there for years, but certainly they shouldn't vanish immediately. Serology Testing for COVID-19 at CDC | CDC

I think the CDC questions how much people should be using antibody testing to guide public policy when it is prone to false results and when we don't know for sure where the antibodies provide immunity and if so, for how long.
ok cdc need keep separation data a who test from swap this group-1 they positive so this who really had positive covid 19
second test antibody test group one who never was tested or possibly has mild symptom and never used swap test
another antibody group for people after recovery covid 19 so this separated data give more clear image covid spreed and recovery. i not will be sunrise some people has antibody from older SARS outbreak and maybe positive
now mostly important 2 step vaccine and find out why people majority asymptomatic .what make this group more protective .if NIH or some find out this can help protect more sensitive population

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