Originally posted by aslyfox with the short history of this virus, do we really have any experts on covid-19?
No, but we have too many who play one on TV!
The best that the actual experts can say is:
1) here are some
plausible properties of COVID-19 given our experience with other pandemics, other coronaviruses, other vaccine & therapy development processes;
2) here are some
likely (but not guaranteed) properties of COVID-19 given the data to date;
3) here is
what we really don't know because we have not carefully collected the data or haven't got to that stage of the pandemic.
(Anyone who goes beyond these tentative statements must be viewed as a dangerous non-expert.)