[Serkevan]

ok cdc need keep separation data a who test from swap this group-1 they positive so this who really had positive covid 19
second test antibody test group one who never was tested or possibly has mild symptom and never used swap test
another antibody group for people after recovery covid 19 so this separated data give more clear image covid spreed and recovery. i not will be sunrise some people has antibody from older SARS outbreak and maybe positive
now mostly important 2 step vaccine and find out why people majority asymptomatic .what make this group more protective .if NIH or some find out this can help protect more sensitive population

,

Considering antibodies for common-cold coronavirus last for a very short time, I'm not sure SARS (which had only some thousands of cases in total) would have any effect here.

As for the asymptomatic cases, it's a respiratory virus. Our immune system is well used to fighting these things and, when presented with a small viral load (or if the circumstances favor our bodies at the time of infection) will make short work of the darned thing. It's not necessarily a characteristic of the patient.

Heck, I haven't had the flu in I don't know how long, but I'm down with "one-day-colds" about once in a while, and it's always when I'm overworked and exhausted -physically *and* mentally.

[Rondec]

ok cdc need keep separation data a who test from swap this group-1 they positive so this who really had positive covid 19
second test antibody test group one who never was tested or possibly has mild symptom and never used swap test
another antibody group for people after recovery covid 19 so this separated data give more clear image covid spreed and recovery. i not will be sunrise some people has antibody from older SARS outbreak and maybe positive
now mostly important 2 step vaccine and find out why people majority asymptomatic .what make this group more protective .if NIH or some find out this can help protect more sensitive population

,

I feel like I'm addressing e e cummings. Makes it difficult to totally grok the intent of your post.

I would say that I don't think asymptomatic is an indication of something protective and odds are probably decent that people who have minimal symptoms also have many fewer antibodies. People who have more major symptoms probably have a more robust response from their immune system that is more likely to be long lasting.

But that is only a guess.

[aslyfox]

another guess:

Coronavirus may never go away, even with a vaccine
Embracing that reality is crucial to the next phase of America’s pandemic response, experts say.

There’s a good chance the coronavirus will never go away.

Even after a vaccine is discovered and deployed, the coronavirus will likely remain for decades to come, circulating among the world’s population.

Experts call such diseases endemic — stubbornly resisting efforts to stamp them out. Think measles, HIV, chickenpox.

It is a daunting proposition — a coronavirus-tinged world without a foreseeable end. But experts in epidemiology, disaster planning and vaccine development say embracing that reality is crucial to the next phase of America’s pandemic response. The long-term nature of covid-19, they say, should serve as a call to arms for the public, a road map for the trillions of dollars Congress is spending and a fixed navigational point for the nation’s current, chaotic state-by-state patchwork strategy.

With so much else uncertain, the persistence of the novel virus is one of the few things we can count on about the future. That doesn’t mean the situation will always be as dire. There are already four endemic coronaviruses that circulate continuously, causing the common cold. And many experts think this virus will become the fifth — its effects growing milder as immunity spreads and our bodies adapt to it over time.
For now, though, most people have not been infected and remain susceptible. And the highly transmissible disease has surged in recent weeks, even in countries that initially succeeded in suppressing it. Left alone, experts say, it will simply keep burning through the world’s population.

Combating endemic diseases requires long-range thinking, sustained effort and international coordination. Stamping out the virus could take decades — if it happens at all. Such efforts take time, money and, most of all, political will.. . .

People also keep talking of returning to normal, said Natalie Dean, a disease biostatistician at the University of Florida. But a future with an enduring coronavirus means that normal no longer exists. “As we find different ways to adapt and discover what works, that’s how we’re going to start reclaiming parts of our society and life,” she said. . . .

Will coronavirus end? Covid-19 may become endemic and last years - The Washington Post

with the short history of this virus, do we really have any experts on covid-19?

[Ex Finn.]

I hope you told her it isn't a parasite

Actually what she said is not printable here. I just threw that in to substitute for it.

---

Last edited by Ash; 05-27-2020 at 05:42 PM. Reason: masked vulgarity

[Parallax]

Coronavirus may never go away, even with a vaccine

Why would anyone expect it to?
H1N1 has lasted for 100+ years.
Life comes with one, and ONLY one guarantee.

[Ex Finn.]

Life comes with one, and ONLY one guarantee.

Two if one works...

[photoptimist]

with the short history of this virus, do we really have any experts on covid-19?

No, but we have too many who play one on TV!

The best that the actual experts can say is:

1) here are some plausible properties of COVID-19 given our experience with other pandemics, other coronaviruses, other vaccine & therapy development processes;

2) here are some likely (but not guaranteed) properties of COVID-19 given the data to date;

3) here is what we really don't know because we have not carefully collected the data or haven't got to that stage of the pandemic.

(Anyone who goes beyond these tentative statements must be viewed as a dangerous non-expert.)

[Parallax]

Anyone who goes beyond these tentative statements must be viewed as a dangerous non-expert.

Or, possibly, a dangerous expert.

[aslyfox]

No, but I don't think I'd take much advice from Jeff Bezos.

I rather doubt that Jeff wrote it

if so, he didn't claim a byline

. . . given the data to date; . . .

that is the point, we are in early stages of investigation and experience with more " knowledge " being gained ( or claimed ) as time goes by

[dstar]

I feel like I'm addressing e e cummings. Makes it difficult to totally grok the intent of your post.

I would say that I don't think asymptomatic is an indication of something protective and odds are probably decent that people who have minimal symptoms also have many fewer antibodies. People who have more major symptoms probably have a more robust response from their immune system that is more likely to be long lasting.

But that is only a guess.

may be you right but i saw myself patient who was covid positive very old with a lot internal problem and no symptom 100 %. same time in ICU was patients very healthy and age 40-30 no bad habit
just this covid created a lot puzzle questions and very little answer so far
interesting data from testing cruse passenger they testing all and from who was100 % positive only 20 %have symptom .80 % test positive no any symptom

[swanlefitte]

All the media keeps harping on about asymptomatic carriers. I check for "confirmed cases of asymptomatic cases of covid 19"

News media of all sorts sprung up but curiously scientific papers didn't. The old study from Feb. in China about 1 family that seemed like it most likely came from one family member but were not certain. One other study, this one.
A study on infectivity of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers from May 13th.

Conclusion
In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak.

That is a weak conclusion considering.

All CT images showed no sign of COVID-19 infection. No severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections was detected in 455 contacts by nucleic acid test.

[Serkevan]

Two if one works...

Unless you're a big enough company, wherein you transition into "economic factor" and are exempt

[Rondec]

All the media keeps harping on about asymptomatic carriers. I check for "confirmed cases of asymptomatic cases of covid 19"

News media of all sorts sprung up but curiously scientific papers didn't. The old study from Feb. in China about 1 family that seemed like it most likely came from one family member but were not certain. One other study, this one.
A study on infectivity of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers from May 13th.

Conclusion
In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak.

That is a weak conclusion considering.

All CT images showed no sign of COVID-19 infection. No severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections was detected in 455 contacts by nucleic acid test.

I don't think it is clear one way or the other. There is an article in the New England Journal in which they went into a nursing home and checked viral loads of patients with COVID and compared those who did and didn't have symptoms: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2009758?fbclid=IwAR3PKFucidbp8VFF...6i5OGAtez0ue1E Many of them were actually "pre-symptomatic" that is, they developed symptoms three or four days down the line, but they all had similar viral loads.

The study writers are quick to say that these findings do not mean that asymptomatic individuals transmit a lot of virus, only that they have similar levels in their serum and nasopharynx and could shed it.

This was the other study that I saw, from Singapore: Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 ? Singapore, January 23?March 16, 2020 | MMWR

We know that most influenza spread probably occurs a day or two before symptoms start. Once people start to feel bad, they stay home and away from other people, but if they just have a little cough and nothing else, they continue to function as normal.

[swanlefitte]

I don't think it is clear one way or the other. There is an article in the New England Journal in which they went into a nursing home and checked viral loads of patients with COVID and compared those who did and didn't have symptoms: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2009758?fbclid=IwAR3PKFucidbp8VFF...6i5OGAtez0ue1E

This was the other study that I saw, from Singapore: Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 ? Singapore, January 23?March 16, 2020 | MMWR

.

That is an interesting study. It is only presymptomatic and only 6.4% of cases. The first case the only contact was sitting in a chair after. That suggests touching a surface. Another one was people directly behind and not in front or the sides. That suggests either strong air currents or things handed back. 3 were living together. Even the limited 6.4% of 187 seems to be most likely direct contact.

I might check for more but not today. In Minneapolis we have more pressing concerns.

[aslyfox]

although a small percentage of the overall population of the United States, all who have been lost should not be forgotten

trying to put it into perspective:

The death toll from the coronavirus in the US surpassed 100,000 on Wednesday. That's roughly the populations of Edison, New Jersey, (99,967, according to the 2010 US census) Kenosha, Wisconsin, (99,218, according to the 2010 US census), or even Flint, Michigan (102,434, according to the 2010 US census).

The US has 4,115 cities that have a population of fewer than 100,000 people.

In just three months, the death toll from COVID-19 is also more than the number of "US military combat fatalities in every conflict since the Korean War," The New York Times reported. . . .

100,000 Americans died from COVID-19, the size of Edison, New Jersey - Business Insider