[MarkJerling]

is it even possible to contact trace 40,000 new cases a day?

Nope.

[swanlefitte]

Minnesota now has the capacity to test 20,000 per day. Despite the massive riots here at ground zero for Gorge Floyd cases are way below before the riots. Masks are worn by 95% indoors and very high % outdoors where distance isn't possible.
Hennepin county which is mostly Minneapolis has dropped from 250 new cases per day down to about 100 during the unrest. I do think the bar crowd is the main contributer now. You can't drink with a mask on. New Orleans is doing well. They have very open bars and if it gets crowded you can go out in the street. Here, once you have a drink, it is illegal to leave before you finish. Go in an empty bar and if a crowd comes in you waste your drink, stop social distancing or get arrested. I don't go but those that do are now shooting each other everynight.

[scratchpaddy]

Finally!!

Arizona Issues New Shutdown Order as Coronavirus Cases Spike

It only took several weeks of seeing more cases per capita than any other state for us to finally shut down bars, gyms, and water parks. It's not much, but not even a week ago, it was "it's just because we're testing more," and the President himself stopped by to violate my county's emergency health declaration and hold a rally indoors with 3,000 supporters and almost no face masks.

[mroeder75]

Finally!!

Arizona Issues New Shutdown Order as Coronavirus Cases Spike

It only took several weeks of seeing more cases per capita than any other state for us to finally shut down bars, gyms, and water parks. It's not much, but not even a week ago, it was "it's just because we're testing more," and the President himself stopped by to violate my county's emergency health declaration and hold a rally indoors with 3,000 supporters and almost no face masks.

Agree that more restrictions were needed and should have come earlier. Here is an interesting statistical comparison on COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population. Most of my family of origin is in Arizona. I was thinking we have it better here, than Arizona, but now I see, not by much.https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covid19-cases-rate-u...cans-by-state/
My home-state of Iowa is not far behind Arizona in cases per 100,000, and yet I thought from the news my folks were in considerably greater danger than they would be here. In Iowa the meat packing plants have had high rates of infection. My rural county does not have a meat packing plant. We have low #s. So despite that Iowa is near Arizona in overall rates per capita for the entire pandemic, My rural county has a rate of infection that is about 15% of the rate in the State of Arizona.

Texas is way down the list in per capita cases, i.e. about half the Arizona rate, yet Houston is near capacity in ICU beds. Texas is a huge state. Infection rates vary per locale.

[scratchpaddy]

The graph you linked is total cases per capita. Most of the states in the New England area (like New York) peaked early, and have been doing much better lately. NPR has a chart with a rolling 1-week average of new cases per capita. Arizona has had the most new cases per capita for a while now, currently at 39 new cases daily per 100k. Florida is close behind at 31. Iowa is currently at 10.

Another problem is our positive test rate. The WHO recommends keeping this under 10%. Texas just passed that mark, which was one of the reasons cited by the governor for pausing their re-opening. Arizona is currently at 23%. Almost 1 out of 4 people tested in Arizona are sick with COVID-19.

And yes, hospital capacity is a big issue. ICU bed use is hovering around 90%. What little capacity remains will be quickly overwhelmed by the onslaught of new cases. Yesterday the state health director authorized hospitals to activate their crisis care protocols - in other words, triage.

Will Humble, the executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association and a former director of the state health department, said officially activating these standards would protect hospitals from liability while acknowledging that the state’s hospitals are at this point of needing such protection because they need to triage patients.

“It's the only time that this has happened in my lifetime. I mean they used it in Vietnam, and they use it in war. But for civilian purposes, I can't think of a time when this has been implemented,” Humble said.
Most doctors and health care providers don’t expect that this is how they will have to treat patients at any time, unless perhaps they are front-line military providers, he said.

Humble recalled times, such as during H1N1, when hospitals were given some regulatory reliefs or waivers of parts of the administrative code.

“I think it's really important for everybody to know about this," Humble said. "It's the reality. It's what's coming. And it's a result of the decisions that have been made. This isn't bad luck.”

[slartibartfast01]

The graph you linked is total cases per capita. Most of the states in the New England area (like New York) peaked early, and have been doing much better lately. NPR has a chart with a rolling 1-week average of new cases per capita. Arizona has had the most new cases per capita for a while now, currently at 39 new cases daily per 100k. Florida is close behind at 31. Iowa is currently at 10.

Another problem is our positive test rate. The WHO recommends keeping this under 10%. Texas just passed that mark, which was one of the reasons cited by the governor for pausing their re-opening. Arizona is currently at 23%. Almost 1 out of 4 people tested in Arizona are sick with COVID-19.

And yes, hospital capacity is a big issue. ICU bed use is hovering around 90%. What little capacity remains will be quickly overwhelmed by the onslaught of new cases. Yesterday the state health director authorized hospitals to activate their crisis care protocols - in other words, triage.

Those testing figures seem to be different to those quoted here
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-d...ards/index.php
Still over 10% though.

[scratchpaddy]

Those testing figures seem to be different to those quoted here
ADHS - Data Dashboard
Still over 10% though.

The 12% number there is from total tests since the beginning of the outbreak. 23% is from the past few days of testing.

From yesterday's data alone, there were 20,913 tests, of which 4,682 were positive (another new record high) - 22.4% positive.

---

Last edited by scratchpaddy; 06-30-2020 at 08:49 AM.

[slartibartfast01]

The 12% number there is from total tests since the beginning of the outbreak. 23% is from the past few days of testing.

From yesterday's data alone, there were 20,913 tests, of which 4,682 were positive (another new record high) - 22.4% positive.

The 7 day average is a much more useful measure. The overall average based on the total number of tests becomes more useless as time goes by. Who is being tested though? Is it testing based on track and trace or people who have symptoms?

[beholder3]

Under the headline "Where new cases are increasing" you can find pretty obvious charts with both new case counts and rolling 7 day averages:

Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count - The New York Times

Florida, Idaho and Nevada seem to be the worst controlled places.

But yes, if you click on the "per capita" view, then Arizona is ground zero.

[scratchpaddy]

The 7 day average is a much more useful measure. The overall average based on the total number of tests becomes more useless as time goes by. Who is being tested though? Is it testing based on track and trace or people who have symptoms?

There's almost no track and trace going on here. Testing is on a voluntary basis. Most of the testing locations are urgent care clinics, and drugstore chain CVS also offers testing at 64 locations across the state.

There are CDC guidelines for who should get the test due to limited supplies. In general, you're not supposed to get a test unless you have symptoms or been in close contact with someone who has symptoms. The guidelines are country-wide, not just in Arizona.

Where I work, there are about a dozen people out due to being in close contact with the three people who tested positive so far. They have to stay home for two weeks, and need a negative test result to come back to work.

[thazooo]

Here in the deep south we're having our spike from opening up. It went from a daily average of 250 to 670, with 1 day of 1096. Mask wearing is hit and miss. I suspect around 50ish usage. A lot of folks are chancing it. Here in the Capital City, our Mayor has told the Police to start issuing tickets to get people to comply. He's promised that if the non compliance continue, He'll put us back in lock down. Not so cool here.

[Just1MoreDave]

...We are not quite settled on whether we will fly or drive, yet. It is good to receive a report like yours so we can judge what to do...

I've heard people suggest an RV because you have more control over your environment, but that's a summer idea. January in an RV is more difficult.

Minnesota now has the capacity to test 20,000 per day. Despite the massive riots here at ground zero for Gorge Floyd cases are way below before the riots...

I saw an unreviewed study this morning using phone location data to look at cities with large protests. The study concluded that cities with large protests had a drop in new cases overall. They thought that although the protests had big crowds, lots of other people stayed home to avoid the protests or crowds, leading to a drop.

[jeallen01]

Freddie still Lives!

[reeftool]

Agree that more restrictions were needed and should have come earlier. Here is an interesting statistical comparison on COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population. Most of my family of origin is in Arizona. I was thinking we have it better here, than Arizona, but now I see, not by much.? U.S. COVID-19 case rate by state | Statista
My home-state of Iowa is not far behind Arizona in cases per 100,000, and yet I thought from the news my folks were in considerably greater danger than they would be here. In Iowa the meat packing plants have had high rates of infection. My rural county does not have a meat packing plant. We have low #s. So despite that Iowa is near Arizona in overall rates per capita for the entire pandemic, My rural county has a rate of infection that is about 15% of the rate in the State of Arizona.

Texas is way down the list in per capita cases, i.e. about half the Arizona rate, yet Houston is near capacity in ICU beds. Texas is a huge state. Infection rates vary per locale.

What you are experiencing is much like what happened in NY state this spring. Huge numbers of people getting sick in the cities and very few in the small, rural towns. We had gone a couple of weeks without a single positive test around here until yesterday, when there were 4 recorded, all from people who had recently flown to this area from Florida. There has also been an outbreak among a group of quarry workers at a business along the NY-VT border. Whether these events will cancel our stage-4 reopening is unknown right now.

A lot of small towns are centered around one or two businesses and a sickness can travel quickly inside a factory, warehouse, or food plant. Since a large percentage of the local population works there, it can affect a whole town quickly. Around here, it's paper mills and distribution warehouses and they have all continued running because they have been deemed essential. I work for a food company but have been furloughed due to slow sales. Still, there hasn't been an outbreak yet in any of the local warehouses, only a handful of isolated cases. But we are also a tourist area and everything is opening up and people are arriving from everywhere so there is concern.

[Racer X 69]

I gotta get me one if these.



This is supposed to be video, but doesn't seem to work with the forum interface, so click though to my Flickr and see if it works there.