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03-09-2020, 05:40 AM - 2 Likes   #1
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Coronavirus

Unfortunately I have to rely on google translate to try to pay attention to the users of the community to take the utmost precautions against coronavirus. In Italy and in Europe the consequences were underestimated and they pretended not to see its danger in China. Its greatest danger is the rapid spread that threatens to undermine the health systems of the countries. In most cases the consequences are minimal, but this is very subtle, because the few who have health problems become many because it spreads quickly. Get informed and pay close attention. We can exchange information from individual countries, we try to exploit the advantages of IT in a constructive way.Two weeks were enough to change the way of life of millions of people


---------- Post added 03-09-20 at 05:53 AM ----------

some useful links:

1) world situation


Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

Coronavirus Update (Live): 111,489 Cases and 3,883 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

What Is Coronavirus: Mapping the Pneumonia-Like Respiratory Illness in China, Globally


Last edited by nonpigliounoshoot; 03-09-2020 at 06:01 AM.
03-09-2020, 08:21 AM - 2 Likes   #2
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And in the interest of balance and perspective

It?s true these things kill more people each day than Covid-19 has so far - Full Fact
03-09-2020, 09:52 AM - 1 Like   #3
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QuoteOriginally posted by timb64 Quote
True, but this is precisely the error of underestimation. Here he sends the system on tilt. Patients spread very quickly and occupy places for other diseases. If you do an accident you cannot be cured, if you have a heart attack, you cannot be cured, and many other diseases. The doctors themselves become infected and cannot work. I repeat, do not underestimate the virus, in China they were not stupid, do not make the same mistakes that have been made in Europe. It is very misleading. There is still no cure and vaccine and it is also transmitted by people who have no symptoms, apparently they are well.



https://www.arte.tv/it/videos/095527-000-A/coronavirus-diario-della-quarante...9aKPjVJSsd4KIs

Last edited by nonpigliounoshoot; 03-09-2020 at 10:02 AM.
03-09-2020, 10:23 AM - 3 Likes   #4
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My advice is to use information from a highly respected source. In my case I use the Johns Hopkins map, which illustrates the areas on the globe where this disease happens, the number of reported cases, the number of deaths from those same countries and the number of people who have recovered from this disease in those countries.

It is interesting to note the number of people who have recovered. It is quite substantial and a significant number, that doesn't seem to be reported as much in some media.

Now, a further issue that must be taken into account regarding the number of cases reported, etc. Any information that is available is only as accurate as the information submitted by different countries health departments. If some countries are under reporting, can't keep up with testing, etc...this has to be a factor that is considered in the overall numbers.

I don't pay much attention to media reports , due to my concern about accuracy and what appears to be sensationalism of some reporting. I do have a concern about news reporting, particularly reporters talking to reporters and not expert medical people, and lapsing into opinion and drifting away from fact and also 'tailoring' their delivery to what will keep viewers/readers ...on that channel...reading that paper, etc...or politicizing it. Oh yes...I understand that this can happen.


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Last edited by lesmore49; 03-09-2020 at 10:33 AM.
03-09-2020, 11:00 AM - 3 Likes   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by lesmore49 Quote
My advice is to use information from a highly respected source. In my case I use the Johns Hopkins map, which illustrates the areas on the globe where this disease happens, the number of reported cases, the number of deaths from those same countries and the number of people who have recovered from this disease in those countries.

It is interesting to note the number of people who have recovered. It is quite substantial and a significant number, that doesn't seem to be reported as much in some media.

Now, a further issue that must be taken into account regarding the number of cases reported, etc. Any information that is available is only as accurate as the information submitted by different countries health departments. If some countries are under reporting, can't keep up with testing, etc...this has to be a factor that is considered in the overall numbers. the only prevention is quarantine, as in the Middle Ages. There is no vaccine and cure.


I don't pay much attention to media reports , due to my concern about accuracy and what appears to be sensationalism of some reporting. I do have a concern about news reporting, particularly reporters talking to reporters and not expert medical people, and lapsing into opinion and drifting away from fact and also 'tailoring' their delivery to what will keep viewers/readers ...on that channel...reading that paper, etc...or politicizing it. Oh yes...I understand that this can happen.


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I insist that the problem has been underestimated by all and when it becomes clear that it is too late. Apply the principle of maximum prudence. Experts bow to economic interests. Not everybody. Here in Italy the first infection was discovered about 20 days ago. Yesterday the country's most productive region was isolated, and one of the most productive in Europe. They are 15 million people. health system is an excellence. But he can't stand the numbers that rise too fast, and he's jumping. I repeat it is not a mortality problem. If a hospital can cure 10 wounded per day, but not ten thousand. the virus has an average incubation of two weeks. People who are apparently healthy are already spreading exponentially.

In modern democracies it will not be possible to have respect for the rules as in dictatorships. Prevention is better than cure, afterwards it will be late. Nations that hide numbers or underestimate cannot do it forever. The data break out all the same, you cannot ignore the sick when there are many. There's no need to argue about this. I don't want to be right.
In fifteen days you will see that what I say happens. Just wait. I will not be happy to have been right. But it will be late for many and the dangers are enormous on a global level due to the economic and social consequences. I live in Tuscany, I am 700 km from Lombardy. We only have 100 cases, no deaths. Schools, museums and courts have been closed, to try only to slow down the contagion that cannot be stopped. People are asked not to go out. Don't make the mistakes of our rulers. It will be a catastrophe. many laughed before, now they are worried.

---------- Post added 03-09-20 at 11:36 AM ----------

I ask administrators to pay close attention to the topic to highlight it. I'm not crazy. I'm just trying to do something. What will happen on a global economic level will be worse than a war.

Last edited by nonpigliounoshoot; 03-09-2020 at 11:38 AM.
03-11-2020, 06:02 AM   #6
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I still can't believe what's going on. I see meetings and demonstrations of people still all close without any precaution in Spain and France. It is pure madness. Look at the contagions that increase exponentially.
03-11-2020, 10:38 AM - 1 Like   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by nonpigliounoshoot Quote
I still can't believe what's going on. I see meetings and demonstrations of people still all close without any precaution in Spain and France. It is pure madness. Look at the contagions that increase exponentially.
I feel your pain, but I believe that every country will learn own lessons one way, or another. Unfortunately. Stay safe, and thank you for trying to warn us.
03-11-2020, 01:20 PM - 1 Like   #8
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Ya have to take care of yourself. The Government wants everyone to think they have all answers but they're about worthless.
Go OCD with the handwashing, don't touch your face, and stay away from people.

03-12-2020, 07:10 AM - 2 Likes   #9
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There is a fine line between precaution and panic.

Which is more doomed, Pentax or the human race?
03-12-2020, 07:31 AM - 1 Like   #10
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This whole thing is a little bit crazy but there isn't much to do but sit back and watch. I suppose I now have a very good excuse to just hibernate for mud season and come back out when (real) spring arrives.
03-12-2020, 04:29 PM   #11
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Posted in another thread. Watch the virus spread in near real time.

https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/
03-12-2020, 04:56 PM - 1 Like   #12
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I use to tell clients:

" we live in the tornado capital of the world

it is possible that a tornado will hit this building in the next 10 seconds

do you want to count or should I ?

It is probable that if I go home tonight and my wife finds out I haven't done what I promised to do, I will be in trouble

worry about the probabilities not the possibilities "
03-13-2020, 03:08 AM   #13
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Well, I do worry about the membership of Pentax Forums in the event of a Pandemic as Coronavirus death rates are much higher among those over 70 and I am afraid we skew that direction.
03-13-2020, 03:10 AM   #14
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true

but it does seem that if you get the virus

the odds are you will survive

even though it is a deadly disease to far too many
03-13-2020, 03:19 AM   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by aslyfox Quote
true

but it does seem that if you get the virus

the odds are you will survive

even though it is a deadly disease to far too many
Sure. Death rates in China for those 80 and older were 14 percent. That means 86 percent got better. Beyond which, there are probably many people with mild illnesses who don't get tested and counted. It's still a worrisome situation and Italy shows how easily a modern healthcare system can be overwhelmed when thousands of people need high levels of medical care at the same time.
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