Originally posted by monochrome I’m changing no travel plans.
In the USA this will be at peak exponential growth in about three weeks, maybe four. Then 2 weeks of panic media while nothing changes.
Then it is essentially over before the end of April. There’s a reason most colleges have locked students out until the end of April.
H1N1 (Swine Flu, also from China) infected 16.5 million people and killed 500.000 globally in 2003-2004. We didn’t panic for that.
You are probably right. It's pretty bad though. I am particularly concerned that data from Iran shows only 514 deaths (unchanged over the last several days) while satelite photography shows them digging mass grave sites in places. If the death rate is 1 percent, that could mean 600,000 people dead in the US alone, mostly elderly.
The incubation period of 14-ish days means that the spike is probably going to be a little bit longer from now than two weeks. But certainly by May I would expect things to be getting back to normalcy in the US.