[ChrisPlatt]

The biggest problem with truck drivers is their sheer mobility, we have had a few cases of truck drivers taking the virus to towns which had no cases and causing tens of thousands to have to be tested.

Long-distance truck drivers were a primary vector for the spread of HIV/AIDS in Africa.

Chris

[Cerebum]

Careful, there have been many cases of airborne transmission, covid transmission restaurant air conditioning -china - Google Search

Yeah I was wrong on that, turns out they can be carried in aerosol particles. thats what differentiates us from the non sheep lol, we sheep can reason, accept new findings and say "sorry, I got it wrong " regarding truckers, I was railing against their refusal to get vaccinated. The vaccine won't stop them carrying it but it may stop them cultivating it and dying from it. I get their reluctance though as it wasn't half rushed through.

[Serkevan]

Yeah I was wrong on that, turns out they can be carried in aerosol particles. thats what differentiates us from the non sheep lol, we sheep can reason, accept new findings and say "sorry, I got it wrong " regarding truckers, I was railing against their refusal to get vaccinated. The vaccine won't stop them carrying it but it may stop them cultivating it and dying from it. I get their reluctance though as it wasn't half rushed through.

Theoretically any vaccine reduces your infectivity by a lot, viral load never gets to the point where it's shedding significantly (because your immune system is at the ready in advance)

[slartibartfast01]

I recently heard about someone who had their first dose of the vaccine then a week later tested positive for Covid. I suspect they may already have been infected before being given the vaccine or failing that the vaccine takes time to have any effect anyway.

[Rondec]

Theoretically any vaccine reduces your infectivity by a lot, viral load never gets to the point where it's shedding significantly (because your immune system is at the ready in advance)

That's what we hope anyway. Unfortunately, I don't think getting vaccinated (I've had my two shots now) will reduce the need to wear masks for the time being. I'm going based on the fact that SIREN study showed that while most healthcare workers who had had COVID kept their antibodies for at least 5 months, many still had pretty high levels of COVID virus in the airways. Covid-19: Past infection provides 83% protection for five months but may not stop transmission, study finds | The BMJ To me it seems as though the antibodies are protective of disease, but maybe not transmission.

I'm not a mask denier and I'll continue to wear one. I do think vaccination is the long term answer.

My concern is that with the new strains being more contagious, masks may not do as good a job now as they did with the initial COVID strain.

I recently heard about someone who had their first dose of the vaccine then a week later tested positive for Covid. I suspect they may already have been infected before being given the vaccine or failing that the vaccine takes time to have any effect anyway.

This is to be expected. The first shot doesn't kick in for a couple of weeks and even then it isn't totally protective -- they are saying 50 percent effective at preventing COVID disease after one shot, 95 percent after two shots. The story I saw was of an ER nurse and it's likely he just got exposed sometime very soon after his injection and just wasn't immune yet.

---------- Post added 01-16-21 at 06:32 AM ----------

I think people often look at the COVID vaccine in a vacuum. If it has any side effects (which it does), it is a bad thing. What they don't seem to understand is that the issue isn't comparing the risk of COVID vaccine to nothing, it is comparing it to COVID disease, which is anything but benign. We know that COVID has long term effects -- even in people who have pretty mild cases. And so when people ask me about the long term effects of the vaccine, I ask them what they know about the long term effects of getting COVID. Seems like a good idea to put getting COVID off until we've studied it a bit more, not?

I do think there are three things to consider with vaccination (1) Personal disease. So if you get vaccinated, we know for sure you are less likely to experience symptomatic COVID. Even people who have gotten COVID after the second shot had really mild cases. (2) Reduced transmission. This, we don't really know about for sure, but it should be less likely for people who are immune to transmit COVID. Probably some still can, but hopefully it is less. (3) Public health issues. The US health system is in crisis in many places. In LA county the hospitals are having their oxygen delivery systems break down because of the demand put on them by so many COVID patients needing high flow oxygen. EMS crews are waiting for hours, simply to unload their patients at ERs. Our local hospital has 300 beds and 130 of them are filled with COVID patients. The nurses have been asked to work 12 hour shifts 7 days a week because there aren't enough people to take care of the patients. It's just awful. And if you get sick for any reason right now -- if you have a heart attack, or a kidney infection -- you are going to get sub-optimal care because of how stressed every part of the health care system is.

I don't particularly want to force people to get vaccines -- but I also don't think many are able to think well and analytically about what is going on and are much more focused on personal benefit and risk than anything else.

(I also think the anti-vaxxers are extremely deceptive and quite capable of blatant lying in order to dissuade people from taking vaccines).

[alfa75ts]

The vaccine won't stop them carrying it

That seems to be one of the wishy/washy unknowns but all the vaccines will probably reduce how infectious you are and will probably reduce the period of time you are infectious.

[RobA_Oz]

That seems to be one of the wishy/washy unknowns but all the vaccines will probably reduce how infectious you are and will probably reduce the period of time you are infectious.

Not to be too picky, some people would interpret “probably” as meaning “it will or it won’t”, which I assume is not your intent. Therein lies the difficulty of explaining even the simplest statistical analysis and probability to anyone not taught about it.

[boriscleto]

My grandmother's LTCP is vaccinating their participants next week. Since I'm her paid caregiver now, finally, I'm considered staff, so I get vaccinated too.

[Fontan]

Not to be too picky, some people would interpret “probably” as meaning “it will or it won’t”, which I assume is not your intent. Therein lies the difficulty of explaining even the simplest statistical analysis and probability to anyone not taught about it.

But we do need to be very picky about the language though. This is a point that has not been settled. To what degree a vaccinated person can be "colonized" with COVID is not very well known. Interpretation of medical / biostatistical methods and its interpretation is a specialty in itself.

---------- Post added 01-17-21 at 09:18 AM ----------

That seems to be one of the wishy/washy unknowns but all the vaccines will probably reduce how infectious you are and will probably reduce the period of time you are infectious.

You would think so - but I am not sure if that is a fair assumption, actually.

[Cerebum]

My grandmother's LTCP is vaccinating their participants next week. Since I'm her paid caregiver now, finally, I'm considered staff, so I get vaccinated too.

Good I am a firm believer in the vaccine as the only way out of this. Especially as you have more chance of plaiting fog than getting people in the UK to follow advice when it stops them having fun (because fun is more important than the potential for deadness!). Stay safe until it kicks in, both of you

Regarding assumptions, I hate the word "probably" too! The trouble is all our assumptions come from labs, we only actually know once it has been out there in the real world. Despite it feeling like forever, it's still early days and the non redacted facts of the matter won't come out until its all over. We just have to choose who we are going to have faith in. ........ Faith! Jeez! I have been taught to question all my life and now I am advocating faith!

[RobA_Oz]

Regarding assumptions, I hate the word "probably" too! The trouble is all our assumptions come from labs, we only actually know once it has been out there in the real world. Despite it feeling like forever, it's still early days and the non redacted facts of the matter won't come out until its all over. We just have to choose who we are going to have faith in. ........ Faith! Jeez! I have been taught to question all my life and now I am advocating faith!

That’s why medical professionals distinguish between vaccine “efficacy” (the results from controlled group studies) and “effectiveness” (the results from the broader, uncontrolled community application). The difference is clear, but lazy journalism and deliberate falsification often confuse the two (“efficiency” is yet another term).

[slartibartfast01]

That’s why medical professionals distinguish between vaccine “efficacy” (the results from controlled group studies) and “effectiveness” (the results from the broader, uncontrolled community application). The difference is clear, but lazy journalism and deliberate falsification often confuse the two (“efficiency” is yet another term).

How do they test the efficacy of a vaccine? Do they deliberately try to infect volunteers in trials?

[MarkJerling]

How do they test the efficacy of a vaccine? Do they deliberately try to infect volunteers in trials?

There are different stages. During stages 1 & 2 small number of people undergo testing. The effectiveness of the vaccine is determined by looking at antibody levels. Stage 3 is a different matter.

Stage 3 vaccine trials are large randomized controlled trials conducted in the community. So, you may have a group of thousands of individuals, of different ages and sexes and in different parts of a community or communities. Half of the people will receive the vaccine and the other half receive a placebo. (An injection that contains nothing but a bit of clean salt water) After some months, and surveys and tests, the effectiveness of the vaccine can be seen from looking at how many of the thousands who received the vaccine got sick and how many did not compared with the thousands who did not receive any real vaccine. No-one is infected deliberately during stage 3 trials. The trial looks at infection rates in the community. Any vaccine that's more than 60% effective is generally good.

In the case of Pfizer, for example, the company recruited 43,661 volunteers and waited for 170 people to come down with symptoms of Covid-19 and then get a positive test. Out of these 170, 162 had received a placebo shot, and just eight had received the real vaccine.

From these numbers, Pfizer’s researchers calculated the fraction of volunteers in each group who got sick. Both fractions were small, but the fraction of unvaccinated volunteers who got sick was much bigger than the fraction of vaccinated ones. The scientists then determined the relative difference between those two fractions. Scientists express that difference with a value they call efficacy. If there’s no difference between the vaccine and placebo groups, the efficacy is zero. If none of the sick people had been vaccinated, the efficacy is 100 percent. The Pfizer vaccine is 95% effective.

[slartibartfast01]

There are different stages. During stages 1 & 2 small number of people undergo testing. The effectiveness of the vaccine is determined by looking at antibody levels. Stage 3 is a different matter.



Stage 3 vaccine trials are large randomized controlled trials conducted in the community. So, you may have a group of thousands of individuals, of different ages and sexes and in different parts of a community or communities. Half of the people will receive the vaccine and the other half receive a placebo. (An injection that contains nothing but a bit of clean salt water) After some months, and surveys and tests, the effectiveness of the vaccine can be seen from looking at how many of the thousands who received the vaccine got sick and how many did not compared with the thousands who did not receive any real vaccine. No-one is infected deliberately during stage 3 trials. The trial looks at infection rates in the community. Any vaccine that's more than 60% effective is generally good.



In the case of Pfizer, for example, the company recruited 43,661 volunteers and waited for 170 people to come down with symptoms of Covid-19 and then get a positive test. Out of these 170, 162 had received a placebo shot, and just eight had received the real vaccine.



From these numbers, Pfizer’s researchers calculated the fraction of volunteers in each group who got sick. Both fractions were small, but the fraction of unvaccinated volunteers who got sick was much bigger than the fraction of vaccinated ones. The scientists then determined the relative difference between those two fractions. Scientists express that difference with a value they call efficacy. If there’s no difference between the vaccine and placebo groups, the efficacy is zero. If none of the sick people had been vaccinated, the efficacy is 100 percent. The Pfizer vaccine is 95% effective.

Thank you, that makes sense. The calculated efficacy obviously depends on the the two vaccine shots being given at the recommended interval. In the UK they have decided not to bother too much about that and have extended the interval between shots to 12 weeks so nobody knows how much protection that gives.

[dstar]

still one good question what group you go after vaccination 5% or 95%
No really test at this present time test you body response. Covid antibody test not work for vaccine antibody
Will be very interesting when CDC add test for vaccine response/anti-spikeS ARS -cov2.Becouse Moderna and Pfizer vaccine-designated to induce an antibody against spike protein