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08-19-2021, 07:56 AM   #1381
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QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
A Michigan-based big box store has replaced their ‘unvaccinated people please wear masks’ at eye-level on their entrance doors with ‘everyone please wear a mask’ sign. When we went shopping on Monday, about half the people - including store employees - were not wearing masks. Last week I noticed a number of unmasked families, including small children who could not possibly be vaccinated, so I would guess that no one in the family was vaccinated. I just keep my distance from them, and am glad that I am vaccinated.
For a while, for some reason, many people thought that vaccination meant that virus particles would just bounce off you. Vaccinations mean that your immune system is prepared and waiting so viral particles are mopped up more quickly but if anti-body levels are at a normal low level then it won't stop them from infecting cells and reproducing, at least for a while until the immune system ramps up and wipes them out again (hopefully). The vaccinated are capable of passing on the virus, albeit less so than the full-on infected.

QuoteOriginally posted by Serkevan Quote
I'm all for making pharma companies liable for the vaccine damages.

But if we start with that, I also want unvaccinated people to be liable for their spreading the disease. You were not vaccinated, spreaded the disease to a family member in a breakthrough infection and they died? Manslaughter. Sounds like a fair deal.
The problem is that you can't prove who infected whom. If that were possible then it would be a great policy.

QuoteOriginally posted by Wheatfield Quote

Exactly. The anti vaxxers goal posts will just move a little farther down the field, the narrative will change, and they will continue to spew their stupid drivel.

I read an interesting thing on, IIRC, CNN the other day, comparing covid to the Kansas flu (it's now known where it originated, and it wasn't Spain) from 1918. There were no vaccines against it, and it burned through the population and eventually died out on it's own, after killing a significant number of people.
The predicition is that covid will do the same thing. It will burn through the unvaccinated, and will eventually die out on it's own after killing a significant number of people.

There is an alternative and more dire prediction, however.
The original wave of the Kansas flu wasn't much worse than any other flu virus. It spread more easily, but that was about it.
The second wave, which would have been a mutation, was the real killer.

The dire possibility is that it will mutate in the unvaccinated into something far more infectious, far more deadly, and far more resistant to the vaccines we presently have. This is the possibility that is keeping disease control experts awake at night, and is as good an argument for vaccine passports and treating the unvaccinated like the social lepers they have made the decision to be.
The most likely thing is that it will mutate into something less deadly, like a standard flu, and then hang around forever. Killing your host, at least quickly, is not a good survival strategy, and in an organism capable of using science and shared knowledge to fight back, killing many hosts puts a target on your back. Of course CoViD-deniers, anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers do their best to lower us to the level of the other beasts that inhabit the earth but we need to fight that too.

It occurred to me a few days ago that before we had the vaccine the most prominent display of ignorance from the anti-vaxxers/anti-maskers/anti-science was that they refused to wear masks, socially distance or take other non-medical measures to protect themselves or others. The rest of us were angry because they were as likely to endanger or kill other people as themselves, but now things have changed. Now the number one defining behaviour of these people is that they refuse to vaccinate, which means that the balance of risk has shifted more to them and away from the people around them. As much as I loath to see people dying, I can't help but see that this is now natural selection at work.

08-19-2021, 09:53 AM   #1382
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QuoteOriginally posted by Jonathan Mac Quote

The most likely thing is that it will mutate into something less deadly, like a standard flu, and then hang around forever. Killing your host, at least quickly, is not a good survival strategy, and in an organism capable of using science and shared knowledge to fight back, killing many hosts puts a target on your back. Of course CoViD-deniers, anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers do their best to lower us to the level of the other beasts that inhabit the earth but we need to fight that too.
While this is the more likely scenario, mutations are more random chance than intelligent design, with the very real possibility of getting a mutation that acts more like Ebola than the common cold.
It is more likely that Covid-19 will mutate into an annoying endemic, much like the common cold, which is also a corona virus, but it could also move in a different direction.
The Delta variant, for example, seems to be much more infectious and somewhat more deadly. If the virus continues to mutate in that direction, we could be in for a world of hurting.

QuoteQuote:
It occurred to me a few days ago that before we had the vaccine the most prominent display of ignorance from the anti-vaxxers/anti-maskers/anti-science was that they refused to wear masks, socially distance or take other non-medical measures to protect themselves or others. The rest of us were angry because they were as likely to endanger or kill other people as themselves, but now things have changed. Now the number one defining behaviour of these people is that they refuse to vaccinate, which means that the balance of risk has shifted more to them and away from the people around them. As much as I loath to see people dying, I can't help but see that this is now natural selection at work.
Well yes, at some point, we can start handing out posthumous Darwin Awards to unvaccinated people.

---------- Post added Aug 19th, 2021 at 11:06 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote

COVID has been a really tough situation. Recommendations now versus a year and a half ago have changed due to studies showing what things have worked and what haven't. Early on, the CDC didn't recommend wearing masks unless you felt sick and then you were really supposed to be in isolation. This was because they didn't think there was much asymptomatic spread and there was a shortage of personal protective equipment for health care workers. Later, it turned out that probably at least 50 percent of the spread of COVID is done by presymptomatic and asymptomatic individuals and there was no longer a mask shortage and they changed their recommendations.

I think the CDC is ready to recommend that people get COVID vaccine boosters at 8 months. The WHO thinks that they aren't needed yet and it will decrease world supply of vaccine. The issue is that we are seeing more breakthrough infections with COVID, but for the most part they are relatively mild disease, not requiring hospitalization. Whether this truly warrants a booster or if we should wait a little longer probably depends on your perspective.

As far as medications, it takes a lot of post-hoc analysis and monitoring to identify some of the issues in them. It would be nice, I suppose, to have trials lasting ten years that involved a million patients. The reality is that no one could afford such a trial and it would take too long to get medications to the people who need them. What ends up happening is a few thousand people are in the Phase 3 trial for 2 to 3 years. This is enough to identify most major, common side effects, but there are still plenty of things that can crop up down the line.
Science tends to change it's opinion as more is learned about a particular situation. Early on, there was also the pragmatism surrounding protecting health care workers who had no choice but to face the pandemic head on when there was a shortage of PPE.
People who can't accept that science moves on, and what we thought was fact yesterday is not the case today are having a very difficult time figuring this out.
They wanted to be handed an owners manual for Covid 19, and refuse to acknowledge that such a thing just doesn't exist. Rather than accept this, they instead take the intellectually lazy route and just decide that the scientists don't know what they are talking about.

That this is happening with people who follow a particular political tribe really shows up how the conservative mind differs from the liberal mind. We really are wired differently, and for better or worse, one tribe is better suited to long term survival than the other one right now.
Note to mods, this is not politics, this is biology.

I knew we were in for a rough ride in January 2020 when people of Chinese descent bought our entire supply of N95 masks to send back to family in China. I expect this was happening everywhere there was an Asian diaspora.

Last edited by Wheatfield; 08-19-2021 at 10:55 AM.
08-19-2021, 10:20 AM   #1383
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QuoteOriginally posted by barondla Quote
This is bigger than Covid. People see lots of FDA approved drugs recalled. It is easy to see why many don't trust the FDA. Many feel they should have caught most of these problems before approval. Everyone isn't a doctor or scientist and aren't going to research all these drugs. But, they will see the TV commercials.

The CDC, and other world health organizations have similar problems. Their recommendations have been all over the map. People have a difficult time placing a lot of confidence in them. The science may be great - the presentation has been very sloppy.

Thanks,
barondla
The FDA doesn't test anything themselves. They rely on data supplied by the manufacturers, who pay for the trials to prove a drug works. The FDA reviews the trial results and decides if the manufacturer was right, or needs more proof. They weigh factors about the severity of the disease, effectiveness of the drug, competing products, etc. Throw in that people are different, and that system is not going to be perfect.

Then when it gets to the legal system, showing a 51% chance that something wasn't 100% perfect is easy.
08-19-2021, 10:32 AM   #1384
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QuoteOriginally posted by Jonathan Mac Quote
Now the number one defining behaviour of these people is that they refuse to vaccinate, which means that the balance of risk has shifted more to them and away from the people around them. As much as I loath to see people dying, I can't help but see that this is now natural selection at work.
I concur.

08-19-2021, 10:56 AM - 1 Like   #1385
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QuoteOriginally posted by Wheatfield Quote
Science tends to change it's opinion as more is learned about a particular situation. Early on, there was also the pragmatism surrounding protecting health care workers who had no choice but to face the pandemic head on when there was a shortage of PPE.
People who can't accept that science moves on, and what we thought was fact yesterday is not the case today are having a very difficult time figuring this out.
They wanted to be handed an owners manual for Covid 19, and refuse to acknowledge that such a thing just doesn't exist. Rather than accept this, they instead take the intellectually lazy route and just decide that the scientists don't know what they are talking about.
The biggest problem are those who think that masks protect the wearer;
for over a year, scientists have said that the biggest beneficiaries are those who are around a wearer who does not know that s/he knows s/he is infected.
08-19-2021, 11:32 AM - 1 Like   #1386
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Changing your opinion in the face of new information is, in fact, at the heart of the scientific method.

Anything else would be dogmatism.
08-19-2021, 11:48 AM   #1387
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QuoteOriginally posted by Serkevan Quote
Changing your opinion in the face of new information is, in fact, at the heart of the scientific method.

Anything else would be dogmatism.
I wish it was called catmatism. Dogs can have their behaviour changed.
But I digress.

08-19-2021, 04:19 PM - 1 Like   #1388
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QuoteOriginally posted by Wheatfield Quote
I wish it was called catmatism. Dogs can have their behaviour changed.
But I digress.
Dogmatism can lead to catastrophe.

I think that may be obliquely in keeping with the purpose of the thread.
08-19-2021, 04:51 PM - 5 Likes   #1389
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QuoteOriginally posted by RobA_Oz Quote
Dogmatism can lead to catastrophe.

I think that may be obliquely in keeping with the purpose of the thread.
Ah yes. I had always thought that a catastrophe was when you had the wrong end if the cat stuffed and mounted on a plaque.
08-19-2021, 11:15 PM   #1390
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Our whole country is still under Level 4 lockdown. (until Tuesday night, at least)

COVID-19 data and statistics | Unite against COVID-19

30 community cases and contact tracing going full steam. Unfortunately, 3 cases in Wellington so not just confined to Auckland anymore.
08-20-2021, 09:16 AM - 1 Like   #1391
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QuoteOriginally posted by MarkJerling Quote
Our whole country is still under Level 4 lockdown. (until Tuesday night, at least)

COVID-19 data and statistics | Unite against COVID-19

30 community cases and contact tracing going full steam. Unfortunately, 3 cases in Wellington so not just confined to Auckland anymore.
This should be a wake up call for the denier types, but I expect it won't be. You guys have gone from zero cases to 30 cases in just a few days, and that is with some of the strictest restrictions in the world to stop the spread of the disease.

We are back up to full on pandemic level numbers, and are getting significant numbers of breakthrough infections from the Delta variant.

I was talking to one of the anti vaxxers that we have at my workplace yesterday. He was off work for something like three months with the Delta variant. He's a long term covid patient now. His heart rate is all over the map, and his blood pressure jumps around from just fine, thank you very much, to morbidly high on a day to day basis, so much so that it's not treatable.
He is insistent that he is now immune to the virus, so I asked him if he thought what he is dealing with now, long term health problems that could wind up killing him, or worse, I suppose, giving him a crippling stroke, was worth it just to avoid a couple of needles in the arm.
He's hard core enough that he just walked away from the conversation without answering, which I took as a yes.
He's in his forties, and apparently is willing to die from the disease or complications from it rather than be vaccinated.
I just don't get it.
08-20-2021, 09:37 AM - 2 Likes   #1392
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QuoteOriginally posted by Serkevan Quote
Changing your opinion in the face of new information is, in fact, at the heart of the scientific method.

Anything else would be dogmatism.
QuoteOriginally posted by Wheatfield Quote
I wish it was called catmatism. Dogs can have their behaviour changed.
But I digress.

QuoteOriginally posted by RobA_Oz Quote
Dogmatism can lead to catastrophe.

I think that may be obliquely in keeping with the purpose of the thread.
My karma ran over your dogma.

Sorry, eh?
08-20-2021, 09:49 AM - 1 Like   #1393
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QuoteOriginally posted by Racer X 69 Quote
My karma ran over your dogma.

Sorry, eh?
My catastrophe is hanging over my fireplace.
08-21-2021, 02:40 AM   #1394
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QuoteOriginally posted by Wheatfield Quote
This should be a wake up call for the denier types, but I expect it won't be. You guys have gone from zero cases to 30 cases in just a few days, and that is with some of the strictest restrictions in the world to stop the spread of the disease.

We are back up to full on pandemic level numbers, and are getting significant numbers of breakthrough infections from the Delta variant.

I was talking to one of the anti vaxxers that we have at my workplace yesterday. He was off work for something like three months with the Delta variant. He's a long term covid patient now. His heart rate is all over the map, and his blood pressure jumps around from just fine, thank you very much, to morbidly high on a day to day basis, so much so that it's not treatable.
He is insistent that he is now immune to the virus, so I asked him if he thought what he is dealing with now, long term health problems that could wind up killing him, or worse, I suppose, giving him a crippling stroke, was worth it just to avoid a couple of needles in the arm.
He's hard core enough that he just walked away from the conversation without answering, which I took as a yes.
He's in his forties, and apparently is willing to die from the disease or complications from it rather than be vaccinated.
I just don't get it.
My parents-in-law got COVID last August. Mother-in-law sailed through it. My father-in-law is 72 and had a rougher time and since then has developed what we think is POTS -- he gets dizzy, has rapid heart rate, and if he stays standing he will pass out (has done so several times). There really isn't anything to do for it, just hope it gets better over time.

They both got vaccinated when the shots were available for their age group. Having gone down that road once, they had no interest in doing it again.
08-21-2021, 02:52 AM - 3 Likes   #1395
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I will go get my first shot tomorrow.
Also want to thank you those help answer my allergies question sometime ago.

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