[madphys]

BTW I saw (and even photographed) two "UFOs" heading back to their home galaxy. I guess we won't see them in near future....

[falconeye]

even photographed) two "UFOs"

This is what I call 'evidence'!

You are one great photographer, much better than Ben (at least for ufos).


-- it is great artwork too! --

[slomojoe]

Of course, I reveal a physicist's bias Fortunately. After philosophers failed for thousands of years...

And fortunately, because those guys are hardest to create a simulated reality for

As for your argument. You are right. It goes along the same line of argument which prooves that the human race must die out soon because otherwise, you would most likely live at a later epoch featuring more individuals.

The problem with statistical arguments like this is that you deal with conditional probabilities. For instance, if you assume that your simulated ego (you!) and your simulator populate the same universe (you, some software bits and your simulator, some quantum state bits) then it is much more probably that you are the simulator (more bits). This argument would only change if the entire simulation contains more information than all quantum states of the simulator's population combined. A overwhelmingly huge effort for them. Why should they do this (limit their number in favour of simulating retarded brains...).?

Therefore, I think that Bostrom's argument is not thoroughly thought through. Like a philosopher's argument, not a physicist's argument (sorry, couldn't resist).

Far from me to defend philosophers, I am a scientist too.

Still I think you have your denominator wrong. If you assume there are only two conscious beings in your universe, one made by n bits and one made by a million * n bits, and all you know is that you are conscious and made of bits, your a priori probability of being one or the other is exactly 1/2. The number of bits in each being is irrelevant.

Anyway, this is an interesting discussion but entirely off topic here. Take care!

[Fl_Gulfer]

I saw a UFO while walking Guard Duty in the Marine Corp in 1971. I was walking the flight line at Cherry Point NC. (the only US Harrier Squadron).
I knew it wasn't one of our jets because they were all grounded that week. I couldn't make out much detail but I never seen anything move like that back then or now.

[falconeye]

The number of bits in each being is irrelevant.

Using your wording, I am not convinced Conditional probabilities are a tricky beast. First, you would carefully have to define events which randomly pick a simulated or a real mind. And you should be surprised that you aren't a worm -- there are so many of them But you are right, we are far into "Meta General Talk" here

[falconeye]

I saw a UFO [...] in 1971 [...] at Cherry Point NC.

Did it make you accept the existance of alien UFOs as a fact? Can you give more detail?

I believe we have a forum fellow from Australia who has friends who saw an UFO. But first-person experience (second-person for the rest of us) is invaluable.

This is what I found about Cherry Point and UFOs:

Albert Rosales indicates in his catalogue that near Cherry Point Station, North Carolina, on December 1959, at 03:00 p.m., a young man living near the 2nd Marine Air wing was playing baseball with high school age friends when someone hit the ball over the roof of his house. He chased the ball and saw a round, disc-shaped craft with platform around it just "sitting" in the air. The craft was 40 feet in diameter sat motionless and soundless about 100 feet away and about 20 feet high. An opening appeared in the UFO and a humanoid in a skintight suit and skullcap stepped out onto the platform. The humanoid after a few seconds spotted him and immediately reentered the UFO. The object then zoomed away. The humanoid stood about five feet three and wore a gray suit. The unknown object appeared to use colors to mimic its background for camouflage purposes. He says despite being only several miles from the Marine base he never considered the UFO was a man-made craft because of it seamless construction, zero engine noise, and great speed displayed. The entity, despite its short stature, did have human form.

Albert Rosales indicates that the source is John Thompson, Filer's Files #50.

Astonishing...
Have you ever heard of this story, which was 12 years before your experience in '71?

[Fl_Gulfer]

The size was like that of a 4"disc. to the naked eye, about a 1/2 mile above me at the time I would guess. It was just sitting still,, at first I thought it was a meteor and it was heading at me so it looked as though it wasn't moving. Then it shot across the sky to my left at a unbelieveable speed and stopped and made a 90 degree angle for about a mile across the sky and stopped again and just sat there for about 5 min. I chased down another guard and told him to look at the light I pointed at.. About 1 min. after he saw the light we watched it just head straight up till we couldn't see it. I asked if he thought we should add it to our report, he looked at me like I was crazy so we never said anything to anyone. I never told anyone till I was discharged in 74.
I never new If radar saw it but I never heard about it again the following 7 month's I was stationed there.

Anyone that believes we are the only living beings in the universe can't be thinking with all there braincells. Any planet that contains water is more than likely to contain life.

---

Last edited by Fl_Gulfer; 02-01-2009 at 11:07 AM.

[falconeye]

The size was like that of a 4"disc. to the naked eye, about a 1/2 mile above me at the time I would guess. It was just sitting still,, at first I thought it was a meteor and it was heading at me so it looked as though it wasn't moving. Then it shot across the sky to my left at a unbelieveable speed and stopped and made a 90 degree angle for about a mile across the sky and stopped again and just sat there for about 5 min. I chased down another guard and told him to look at the light I pointed at.. About 1 min. after he saw the light we watched it just head straight up till we couldn't see it. I asked if he thought we should add it to our report, he looked at me like I was crazy so we never said anything to anyone. I never told anyone till I was discharged in 74.
I never new If radar saw it but I never heard about it again the following 7 month's I was stationed there.

This is an interesting report.
Do you mean 4" (10 cm) at 1/2 mile above you? That would be too small to be visible to the naked eye. How did you guess the distance and size?
So, you and another guard saw it. Did you talk about that to each other later on? What is your opinion today? Was it a phenomenon which could be explicable? Like a smaller, closer, remote-controlled object?

I read that the US Airforce experimented with secret Reconnaissance Drones at that time (e.g., the AQM-91 from 1968 to 1971, "operational test and evaluation program in late 1971", http://www.designation-systems.net/dusrm/m-91.html). Then, I read that Cherry Point now hosts a Drones squadron (UAV):

Cherry Point, the largest of the Marine Corps, is the largest air station in the world. It is currently host to four EA-6B Prowler squadrons, six AV-8B Harrier squadrons, two KC-130 Hercules squadrons and one UAV squadron.

Maybe, you saw its secret beginnings?

[benjikan]

This is an interesting report.
Do you mean 4" (10 cm) at 1/2 mile above you? That would be too small to be visible to the naked eye. How did you guess the distance and size?
So, you and another guard saw it. Did you talk about that to each other later on? What is your opinion today? Was it a phenomenon which could be explicable? Like a smaller, closer, remote-controlled object?

I read that the US Airforce experimented with secret Reconnaissance Drones at that time (e.g., the AQM-91 from 1968 to 1971, "operational test and evaluation program in late 1971", Teledyne Ryan AQM-91 Firefly). Then, I read that Cherry Point now hosts a Drones squadron (UAV):Maybe, you saw its secret beginnings?

Drones do not make abrupt 90 degree turns. The G force alone would turn a human body in to pulp, unless they are using Black Op anti gravity techniques that are above Top Secret. I know that there were experiments in to this area of research as far back as 1957. As to the size of the object, I think he meant that at the distance he suggested, it appeared to be about 4 inches in diameter. That would make for a rather large craft at 1/2 mile away or just under a kilometer. How he was able to triangulate would be an interesting question to ask him.

An interesting aside:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgian_UFO_wave

[madphys]

I don't know what is drone - (you mean that one man standing flying platform?) but there is man made aircraft that can easily make abrupt 90 deg turns - and they are called RC helicopters and some stunt RC planes are pretty awesome at it too. Check vids on youtube. The only key to their agility is huge power/mass ratio.

Who on Earth mentioned that there was a man or whatsoever in that "UFO" which was witnessed in 1971?

Determining distance by naked eye=nonsense (There is no way for human to tell if object in the sky especially unknown object is 1 or 10 km away). And what is meant by 4 inches in diameter? When I see something and I don't know how far it is I can't tell how large it is - in inches or cm - I can compare it with something visually - like it was 3 times smaller than full moon, or about the same size as Venus but not to state it was 4 inches...

I have seen so many vids on this topic that I am sick about it - I still haven't seen convincing evidence. What we get is rumors and CGI pics and vids (and a man telling about it with dramatic voice). I have even seen on youtube a rocket launch presented as UFO coming out of wormhole - can you believe that?

Yes UFO is UFO but that doesn't mean it can't be explained. Just because it moves or looks differently it doesn't mean it is alien origin.

[falconeye]

Drones do not make abrupt 90 degree turns. The G force alone would turn a human body in to pulp [...] I think he meant that at the distance he suggested, it appeared to be about 4 inches in diameter.

The object at 1/2 mile appeared like a 4" object at ... what distance? There is a missing number of reference (a second distance) or the number is wrong (too small to be visible).

Drones are unmanned. Unmanned drones could turn 90 degree in a way which would appear abrupt to the naked eye. A G-force of 100g would be no problem. The G-force of a manned aircraft is artificially limited to not kill its pilot. However, I don't know the specs of US and soviet drones of that era.

[Fl_Gulfer]

To each his own.. All I'm saying is that I worked on aircraft for 4 years and I know what I saw. The only jets that could stop in mid air and takeoff again was the Harrier and it can't move like the object I saw. It looked about half the size of the moon when I first saw it, I couldn't hear anything at all, I was guessing on the distance so It must have been closer.
I didn't know the other guard personaly so I never talked to him again. As Falconeye stated it's a very large base.
I didn't hang out on base much I was either at the beach on my days off of working at a topless bar at night. No Not as a stripper! as a Bouncer.

[Jesus]

Being a hardcore astronomy buff I find it pathetic that people actually believe we are the only intelligent life in the universe. I could put up some ( very factual btw ) numbers that almost proves we can't be the only things out there.

For starters, to count discovered galaxies, as of say last week, you would have to count ONE every SECOND for over 300 years. In our Milky Way galaxy alone, there are over 150 BILLION stars exactly ( give or take in size ) like our Sun, each with possible solar systems and planets.
.

No one is saying we are alone , silly, they are saying that we have NOT been visited .

UFO's exist because people want them to.
If you knew the history of them , you'd laugh , it's really a joke on us.

50 years ago , UFO's resembled the shapes of cars from that era .
Today they look like autos from this era , similar shape

This is such a stupid subject , I can't believe I am posting here .

[falconeye]

[...]I know what I saw. [...] It looked about half the size of the moon when I first saw it

Thanks for giving more detial. I think nobody here argued that you saw what you saw. We were just out for more detail.

Half the size of the moon is 15 arcmin (1/4 degree). In 1/2 mile distance, it would have had a diameter of 3.5 m. This would not be in contradiction with the size of an unmanned drone (~10m).

Your response sounds like you are convinced that the object wasn't man made. Am I correct?

[maritimer]

Jesus:

No one is saying we are alone , silly, they are saying that we have NOT been visited .

Maybe you should have kept reading

maritimer:

As much of a believer as I am though, unfortunately, I can't say that I have seen 'hard core' evidence of intelligence beyond our planet.