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10-02-2009, 07:19 PM   #1
graphicgr8s
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Your predictions

So what do you think the economy will do?

I think it will pick up through the end of the year then tank after January 2010. It will start up again 1st, maybe 2nd quarter of 2011.

Come on. What's your prediction?

10-03-2009, 05:13 AM   #2
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QuoteOriginally posted by graphicgr8s Quote
So what do you think the economy will do?

I think it will pick up through the end of the year then tank after January 2010. It will start up again 1st, maybe 2nd quarter of 2011.

Come on. What's your prediction?
I think it will slowly, very slowly show improvements, with minor setbacks, barring any catastrophes, beginning now and taking several years to get back to what we once thought was "normal" , but what we may perceive as a false or premature normal once people feel they aren't so close to the bottom anymore. Unless there is a major technology or lifestyle discovery or breakthrough in the next few years, we wont likely see anything like that of the mid 90's to 2000 any time soon.

Jas
10-03-2009, 06:46 AM   #3
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I think it will see-saw back up. Every other month will show a slight dip, but not enough to offset the gains of the previous month. i.e. at the end of any month that it goes down, we will still be better off than at the end of the previous declining month.
10-03-2009, 07:01 AM   #4
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I'd like to hope that we're in the clear. I know that my wallet could really use the break.
However I don't feel that anyone's through the tough times yet. I'm thinking that we may be in the eye of the storm
I don't have any dates, however I wouldn't be surprised if graphic's prediction is a good one.

10-03-2009, 07:48 AM   #5
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I think it depends what you mean by 'the economy' ...Wall Street pretty much makes the 'jobless recovery' a habit, lately. The bulk of the stimulus money in the pipeline is supposed to start actually hitting the doing stuff with it stage come around March and April, that will hopefully be when we start seeing the trend of job losses reversing.

There's a lot of variables involved in what Wall Street might do: there might be a bit of a sulk if a public option gets through, but I suspect that'd start improving things in real terms before too long.

Energy prices and certain things about currency markets look like big question marks to me at the moment, I think a lot will hinge on that. Housing ought to start making a bit of a rebound, and stuff secondary to that.
10-03-2009, 08:23 AM   #6
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When it gets better, it will get worse. I don't think there will be any way to control inflation once the job market picks up. I think that the housing industry is going to be in a rough spot as the interest rates climb. I think the manufacturing industry will also hurt from it, and well those have been a couple of the leading causes of unemployment.

I haven't really been following the environmental laws coming into being, but I imagine that we will see some and that will mean we will simply export more of our pollution and jobs overseas. If the cost of electricity triples because of environmental laws, we will be back to the old days of the 70's when old people where freezing to death in their own homes. Or maybe with global warming, dying of heat stroke.

We are still in for a rough time.

Thank you
Russell

Last edited by Russell-Evans; 10-05-2009 at 09:47 AM.
10-03-2009, 08:52 AM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by Russell-Evans Quote
When it gets better, it will get worse. I don't think there will be any way to control inflation once the job market picks up. I think that the housing industry is going to be in a rough spot as the interest rates climb. I think the manufacturing industry will also hurt from it, and well those have been a couple of the leading causes of unemployment.

I haven't really been following the environmental laws coming into being, but I imagine that we will see some and that will mean we will simply export more of our pollution and jobs overseas. If the cost of electricity triples because of environmental laws, we will be back to the old days of the 70's when old people where freezing to death in their own homes. Or maybe with global warming dying of heat stroke.

We are still in for a rough time.

Thank you
Russell
Well, Bush gutted the Clean Air Act with the Orwellianly-named 'Clear Skies Inititative' and that didn't save us, as far as environmental laws are concerned. Speaking of dumping costs on the future, bon appetit.

Didn't stop companies from outsourcing, anyway. I think if we want that to not happen, I don't think letting corporations pollute and underpay us over here and then say Pretty please don't export our jobs to Vietnam anyway!' is the way to go about it. At least if you don't want to live in sweatshop conditions, yourself.

The 'green jobs' idea is simply something to be pursued with great vigor, from new technologies to simply insulating some darn houses. That'll also bring down fuel costs while employing people, ...the housing and contractor sector is still pretty ballooned from the housing bubble: it was one of the few things actually growing in the economy.

Interest rates are one thing, but if we get some better credit practices going, there's a lot of no-longer-bubbled housing stock out there which could more than make up for that factor. Inflation's not the worst thing ever from the point of view of a mortgage holder, as long as wages are keeping up.

Not that I think you can base a whole economy on selling each other houses again, but that could be a positive influence on starting to get more jobs going and get more retail activity going, and all that making the economy move kind of stuff.

Oh, and people are freezing in their homes and dying of heat stroke in today's world, too, again don't blame 'environmental laws' when the oil companies are making fortunes and have been actually rolling back protections the past decade.


Last edited by Ratmagiclady; 10-03-2009 at 09:06 AM.
10-03-2009, 02:54 PM   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by Ratmagiclady Quote
Didn't stop companies from outsourcing, anyway. I think if we want that to not happen, I don't think letting corporations pollute and underpay us over here and then say Pretty please don't export our jobs to Vietnam anyway!' is the way to go about it. At least if you don't want to live in sweatshop conditions, yourself.
I think you can blame job exportation that isn't related to environment on minimum wage laws. I think you can blame sweat shop conditions in other countries on the fact that we export that along with it.

I don't believe we should allow business to abuse employees or have work places that are not fit to work in. I'm just saying that we should balance our laws so that we don't encourage an out of sight, out of mind, mentally. We can't enforce the non abuse and fit place to work in another country. We can do that here, but only if the jobs stay here.

It would be good for this country if we ourselves worked those type of jobs that don't pay that well. It would remind us that investing in your own future by education, hard work, trying harder, is needed and not create the false impression of entitlement that what we have is a right. Why shouldn't you work a lower paying job if that matches your skill set?

Thank you
Russell
10-03-2009, 03:13 PM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by Russell-Evans Quote
I think you can blame job exportation that isn't related to environment on minimum wage laws. I think you can blame sweat shop conditions in other countries on the fact that we export that along with it.

I don't believe we should allow business to abuse employees or have work places that are not fit to work in. I'm just saying that we should balance our laws so that we don't encourage an out of sight, out of mind, mentally. We can't enforce the non abuse and fit place to work in another country. We can do that here, but only if the jobs stay here.

It would be good for this country if we ourselves worked those type of jobs that don't pay that well. It would remind us that investing in your own future by education, hard work, trying harder, is needed and not create the false impression of entitlement that what we have is a right. Why shouldn't you work a lower paying job if that matches your skill set?

Thank you
Russell
I disagree with the ideological handwaving that more 'hard work' is needed and that we're beholden to corporate bottom lines, not when the coroprations get subsidies and our tax dollars anyway.

As far as *manufacturing* in our country goes, if we want that to be revived, the answer isn't to move the sweatshops here and act like Victorian industrialists saying, 'Pick yourself up by your bootstraps, debt-slaves!' The answer is things some may not like at first: for one, we should stop relying on cheapass overseas-shipped foreign goods.

We need to make America where quality comes from again, and we need our own people to be able to buy what we make: not spend all their money on cheap crap that needs replacing and ends up in the landfills over and over and over again.... out of what's left over from paying the medical and utility bills and the wages that don't rise anywhere near costs of living.

That's not really a prediction. But it's an option that opens when there's affordable health care and some commitments to the environment and actually using money to better our lives rather than put them in hock. The transportation costs on these imported disposeable things are going to be going up, anyway. So there's no sense expecting these cheap goods to keep coming. And it's not in our best interests to want them to. There are other big drawbacks to more direct measures like protectionist tariffs, but there's no reason we should pay corporations to export our jobs and then hold us ransom against more if their profits are threatened by fair compensation, when this system can't last. If the CEO's get all our money, they won't exactly be buying container ships full of particle board furniture, will they?

This is some of that *change* we can actually be accomplishing, if we stop thinking only in terms of appeasing multinationals.

There's still a lot of infrastructure in place in the housing sector and related stuff, people who can be hired back. Rebuilding industry is another matter, but one that can come of taking a different view than what's been screwing us. We can be turning toward doing some things *right* rather than acting like it's our fault if corporations are in an adversarial relationship with responsibility.


Manufacturing won't be what it was, I think in a new-world economy. But. We'll need factories.
Our factories don't have to be sweatshops.

Last edited by Ratmagiclady; 10-03-2009 at 03:19 PM.
10-03-2009, 04:50 PM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by little laker Quote
I'd like to hope that we're in the clear. I know that my wallet could really use the break.
However I don't feel that anyone's through the tough times yet. I'm thinking that we may be in the eye of the storm
I don't have any dates, however I wouldn't be surprised if graphic's prediction is a good one.
You still have a wallet? Your taxes need raising some more.

RML best estimates are for every 1 job "green" brings we lose 3 real jobs.
10-03-2009, 09:45 PM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by graphicgr8s Quote
You still have a wallet? Your taxes need raising some more.

RML best estimates are for every 1 job "green" brings we lose 3 real jobs.
'Best estimates?' By whom? Those people who've been getting the gravy all this time and *still* exporting jobs?

What, did Fox News tell you that? What good did what they say do when you had total control of the government when we still had huge resources to work with?


Hrm?

What the F did *you* do when you had *everything?*


Looks to me like *you* turned the most prosperous times for any nation in history into...

Something you want to blame anybody else for.

Where were *you,* smart guy?

Yeah. I'm tired of indulging your BS. You paid however much into insurance and got taken for 35 large and *still* shill for the big finance, hoping you'll get your piece.

You wanna blame *me* for the misfortunes *you voted for* and then act like somehow I brought them on by apparently not being unemployed enough by the biases you legislated.

*You* did this, sport. And if you wanna bitch at someone, bitch at the people *you* elected. And whine for when they aren't in a position to tell you to give you more of the same.

I'm tired of indulging you. You got no future.

I wonder, if like Bush, if I asked you, if you even *believe* there'll be a future.

But I'll ask. Do you believe these are the 'End Times?'
Do you believe that the worse things get, the sooner Jesus comes back?

Cause I'm having trouble seeing how else you expect things to go OK for that youngling you say you have. Despite claiming to be much older than I.

Last edited by Ratmagiclady; 10-03-2009 at 09:52 PM.
10-03-2009, 11:32 PM   #12
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RML, you have a lot to say, the majority of which is simply retaliative attacks with a harsh attitude. There is no need for this. Make your point plainly, without insults or angry tones please.
10-03-2009, 11:39 PM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by Ash Quote
RML, you have a lot to say, the majority of which is simply retaliative attacks with a harsh attitude. There is no need for this. Make your point plainly, without insults or angry tones please.
Plainly, then. Graphics and who he advocates have no solutions. No capabilities.

Only fears and distortions.

Seems to me we got a pretty big country here.

How this adds up to 'No, we can't' in some minds, is well beyond me.

Except I happen to notice acutely who gets scapegoated.
10-03-2009, 11:46 PM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by Ratmagiclady Quote
Plainly, then. Graphics and who he advocates have no solutions. No capabilities.

Only fears and distortions.

Seems to me we got a pretty big country here.

How this adds up to 'No, we can't' in some minds, is well beyond me.

Except I happen to notice acutely who gets scapegoated.

Go girl.
10-04-2009, 08:24 AM   #15
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There are 300 million + people in this country and we all need stuff. The economy will go through its cycle and start to come back.
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