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12-22-2009, 02:17 PM   #31
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QuoteOriginally posted by Ratmagiclady Quote
...despite the climate models...
I think it's appropriate to point out that these are just models. They are not fortune tellers or time machines. They are only good to the extent that all climatic processes are well understood, included in the model and properly model. The models, as well as the creators of them, are fallible.

To model a system is not proof that the system behaves as modeled.

12-22-2009, 02:28 PM   #32
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And, speaking of storms, we are right in the middle of a "small" one here: 20-25cm until tomorrow, maybe a tad more.

Models are "models", some will be right on the button, most won't.

JP
12-22-2009, 02:34 PM   #33
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Let's get this thread back on track. RML why don't you reopen one of the other GW threads instead of continuing here?
12-22-2009, 03:57 PM   #34
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If these storms are the coldest/worst in 100 years or so....then what caused them back then?

12-22-2009, 04:26 PM   #35
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mallee Boy Quote
If these storms are the coldest/worst in 100 years or so....then what caused them back then?
This refers to *statistics,* not causation.
12-22-2009, 05:22 PM   #36
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So, a couple of days later, how is the situation for you folks on the Eastern shore?

JP
12-22-2009, 06:19 PM   #37
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QuoteOriginally posted by jpzk Quote
So, a couple of days later, how is the situation for you folks on the Eastern shore?

JP
Lol. Main roads are cleared out. My neighborhood still has some really bad spots but was noticably slushier today. I went to the mall for a little shopping and there were piles of snow as high as houses which made navigating through the parking lot something like trying to find one's way through a maze. Without the scent of cheese to guide us

It's melting but we're supposed to be in the high teens tonight so it'll be dicey for the morning commute I imagine.
12-23-2009, 05:01 AM   #38
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Yep, things really aren't too bad at the moment. Major roads are clear and many of the side streets have been "relatively" cleared. I work in Alexandria, and noticed when I came in this morning (about 5:30am), that a lot of the side streets have not been cleared. Keep in mind that most of the side streets in town are narrow, and Alexandria doesn't clear things quickly. Things might be dicey on Christmas as there is rain/snow predicted.

12-23-2009, 06:57 AM   #39
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mallee Boy Quote
If these storms are the coldest/worst in 100 years or so....then what caused them back then?
Funny that. Time and time again it comes up that it happenned many years ago. Trouble is there wasnt the media coverage like there is now or the population to get caught in it like the bushfires for example. It seems all the previous stuff has to be forgotten about as it dosnt suit there money making spin now. I remember a number of years ago, they said we were heading for a ice age. Didnt happen either. Just the cycles in action.
12-23-2009, 07:07 AM   #40
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QuoteOriginally posted by Parallax Quote
You have to give the "news" media points for creativity though. It has to be tough turning the fact that it snows in New England in the winter (who knew?!) into news headlines.
That actually made me lol.....

On the Global warming issue.....

If it's hot out = global warming
If it's cold out = global warming
Snowstorm = global warming
Hurricane = global warming
Drought = global warming
Too much rain = global warming
Extreme weather = global warming

..... see a trend??????????

To all my southern friends in the US, hope you weather the storm (pun intended).

Hey, it's almost Christmas, drinking at 8am is acceptable.
12-23-2009, 08:50 AM   #41
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QuoteOriginally posted by keithg Quote
Funny that. Time and time again it comes up that it happenned many years ago. Trouble is there wasnt the media coverage like there is now or the population to get caught in it like the bushfires for example. It seems all the previous stuff has to be forgotten about as it dosnt suit there money making spin now. I remember a number of years ago, they said we were heading for a ice age. Didnt happen either. Just the cycles in action.

This 'ice age' people keep bringing up really wasn't a big deal at the time.

The thing with the 'record was set a hundred years ago' dodge is that these statistical blips aren't part of a pattern of the progressively-hottest *decades* on record. Just like a spike in 1998 doesn't turn an overall warming trend into 'It's getting cooler!'

Or make the effects go away, or make ignoring the causes wise.

It's a red herring for deniers to claim, "It's snowing here, see, 'global warming is BS!' " and then turn around and say, "But the 'liberal media is claiming just one record season is caused by global warming." Really, it's that there was one last year, and the year before, and the year before, in lots of places.

There's always going to be an anomaly here and there: but when they start forming a clear pattern, and there's lots of them, as part of an overall trend, then you stop calling each one an anomaly.

Sensationalism aside, 'hundred-year storms' do seem to be coming at rather more-frequent intervals.

Hope everyone's enjoying the snow as best they can, though. I kind of miss it.
12-23-2009, 08:58 AM   #42
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QuoteOriginally posted by Ratmagiclady Quote
.........................

Hope everyone's enjoying the snow as best they can, though. I kind of miss it.
We're about to get hit with a "hold on to your ass" storm here. I would be glad to switch locations with you for a few days. I would even let you borrow my snow shovel.

Last edited by Parallax; 12-23-2009 at 10:27 AM.
12-23-2009, 10:26 AM   #43
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QuoteOriginally posted by mel Quote
Lol. Main roads are cleared out. My neighborhood still has some really bad spots but was noticably slushier today. I went to the mall for a little shopping and there were piles of snow as high as houses which made navigating through the parking lot something like trying to find one's way through a maze. Without the scent of cheese to guide us

It's melting but we're supposed to be in the high teens tonight so it'll be dicey for the morning commute I imagine.
Hey Mel!

At least your part of the world has less continuously severe weather and you can always rely on the usual temperatures which you usually get. That is something that we certainly do not have here! But ... we deal with it, being used to it.
Glad to see that you're finally nearly out of the stuff.

Guess what?
We are having a total of 25 cm of the fresh white stuff since yesterday afternoon and it continues snowing here at the moment. They say .... another 25cm today ... to end just in time for X-Mas eve tomorrow!!
I really should be out there with my camera and take some shots ... work has the upper hand though.


Cheers and a Merry Christmas.

JP
12-23-2009, 10:53 AM   #44
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QuoteOriginally posted by cardinal43 Quote
Things might be dicey on Christmas as there is rain/snow predicted.
As long as the rain doesn't start when there is still some snow on the ground, all should be fine.

JP
12-23-2009, 11:38 AM   #45
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QuoteOriginally posted by jpzk Quote
Guess what?
We are having a total of 25 cm of the fresh white stuff since yesterday afternoon and it continues snowing here at the moment. They say .... another 25cm today ... to end just in time for X-Mas eve tomorrow!!
I really should be out there with my camera and take some shots ... work has the upper hand though.


Cheers and a Merry Christmas.

JP
What part of La Belle Province is that?
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