[reh321]

New lens patent discloses Nikon is working on a new APS-C mirrorless system. - mirrorlessrumors

I do not want to talk about Nikon's plans!

My only interest is in whether having Nikon develop this kind of camera would advance or retard possibility that Pentax might return to APS-C mirrorless.

[THoog]

I would say that making the field even more crowded with another high-volume, low-margin competitor would make it less likely that Pentax will go there, at least in the near future.

[Alizarine]

I doubt it. The K-01 is the first and only of its line for a long time, granted Ricoh's investment in the FF. I doubt there's a new Q too to replace the Q7 this year.

[johnhilvert]

The DSLR trend is toward mirrorless.

They are lighter, cheaper to manufacture and Sony, Panasonic, Olympus, Samsung even Leica are getting into it. Digital video has always been mirrorless, for example. About one in three DSLs manufactured are mirrorless. It used to be one in four a few years ago.

I bet Ricoh/Pentax has a K-02 group exploring possibilities including an improved hybrid mirrorless mode for when the mirror is locked up.

The K-01 deserves a refresh, preferably with a view finder and dropping its silly non-ergonomic red and green buttons at the top.

[stevebrot]

K-02? I you mean a mirrorless APS-C camera using K-mount lenses with a 44.46mm register, I would suggest that Nikon's patent will not affect development of such a product in any way.


Steve

[stevebrot]

The DSLR trend is toward mirrorless....About one in three DSLs manufactured are mirrorless.

Ummmm...I would think the number would be zero. The "R" in dSLR stands for "Reflex" meaning that the viewfinder image is based on the reflection from a mirror. I suspect that you might be confusing SLR with ILC (interchangeable lens camera).


Steve

[johnhilvert]

Thanks for that. I appreciate the distinction between ILC and DSLR.

My point was that it may be easier to add a mirrorless mode to existing DSLRs.

This might involve a transparent OLED overlay in the viewfinder. Users would have the option of an on-screen display over the optical view, and locking up the mirror and using the screen in pure OVF mode, like a mirrorless camera.

[reh321]

K-02? I you mean a mirrorless APS-C camera using K-mount lenses with a 44.46mm register, I would suggest that Nikon's patent will not affect development of such a product in any way.

Steve

I can see two different ways events could move, and I'm just not sure.

(1) Nikon comes out with a product like this and completely fills whatever market there is, so nobody dares making their own.

(2) Nikon comes out with a product like this and makes the whole concept acceptable, so everyone suddenly enters also.

[THoog]

About one in three DSLs manufactured are mirrorless.

The CIPA numbers for 2015 don't support this. For January-September 2015, of 9,685,764 interchangeable lens cameras, 7,349,123 were SLRs, and 2,336,641 were other types ("mirrorless", compact system, rangefinder, and interchangeable unit systems). That's 1 in 4.15. That doesn't include Samsung, but does include types that would not be counted as "mirrorless", so the number is still around 1 in 4.

[THoog]

I can see two different ways events could move, and I'm just not sure.

(1) Nikon comes out with a product like this and completely fills whatever market there is, so nobody dares making their own.

(2) Nikon comes out with a product like this and makes the whole concept acceptable, so everyone suddenly enters also.

I didn't see anything in the Nikon patent to suggest whether they are considering a new short-register-mount or a legacy mount (but a legacy mount wouldn't require a new 18-55 kit lens design). A legacy mount is going to run into the same issues the K-01 ran into - large and with less features compared to other ILC offerings, because of that big empty space in the middle of the camera. If anything, I would expect Nikon to go the same direction Canon has already gone with the M series.

[johnhilvert]

The CIPA numbers for 2015 don't support this. For January-September 2015, of 9,685,764 interchangeable lens cameras, 7,349,123 were SLRs, and 2,336,641 were other types ("mirrorless", compact system, rangefinder, and interchangeable unit systems). That's 1 in 4.15. That doesn't include Samsung, but does include types that would not be counted as "mirrorless", so the number is still around 1 in 4.

Thanks. I defer to your more recent data.

The basis for my assertion of the rise of mirrorless system cameras from 1 in 4 to almost 1 in 3 was the "camera market overview 2012-2014" data in the infographic at Canon Camera News 2015: State of the Photography and Camera Industry in 2014

[THoog]

Thanks. I defer to your more recent data.

The basis for my assertion of the rise of mirrorless system cameras from 1 in 4 to almost 1 in 3 was the "camera market overview 2012-2014" data in the infographic at Canon Camera News 2015: State of the Photography and Camera Industry in 2014

That Lensvid chart is deceptive, in that they show mirrorless as a circle inside the "reflex" circle, when they are really two parts of a larger whole. What they are showing is 3 MILCs produced for every 13 SLRs in 2013 (1 in 5.3 total) and 3 MILCs for every 10 SLRs in 2014 (1 in 4.33 total). That would make the numbers for 2015 3 MILCs for every 9.43 SLRs (1 in 4.15 total). So the trend does appear to be increasing slightly, but not as fast as before.

[johnmflores]

The CIPA numbers for 2015 don't support this. For January-September 2015, of 9,685,764 interchangeable lens cameras, 7,349,123 were SLRs, and 2,336,641 were other types ("mirrorless", compact system, rangefinder, and interchangeable unit systems). That's 1 in 4.15. That doesn't include Samsung, but does include types that would not be counted as "mirrorless", so the number is still around 1 in 4.

That 2,336,641 is like 99% mirrorless, since the number of rangefinder makers is very very small with very small sales. Samsung may not be big in the U.S., but I bet that they sell more mirrorless cameras worldwide than we'd imagine simply due to their size and distribution/retail strength. Maybe not enough to make it 1 in 3, but perhaps closer than 4.15 to 1.

[THoog]

That 2,336,641 is like 99% mirrorless, since the number of rangefinder makers is very very small with very small sales. Samsung may not be big in the U.S., but I bet that they sell more mirrorless cameras worldwide than we'd imagine simply due to their size and distribution/retail strength. Maybe not enough to make it 1 in 3, but perhaps closer than 4.15 to 1.

I was thinking along those lines, but not willing to say it w/o hard data. Samsung... puzzles me. We've had European members who say the same thing - Samsung must be big somewhere, but not in Europe. The Chinese 3rd-party stuff for NX on eBay is surprisingly sparse, compared to the other MILC mounts. With the rumor floating around that Samsung may get out of cameras entirely, I'm starting to think the NX never really made it out of Korea.

[johnmflores]

I was thinking along those lines, but not willing to say it w/o hard data. Samsung... puzzles me. We've had European members who say the same thing - Samsung must be big somewhere, but not in Europe. The Chinese 3rd-party stuff for NX on eBay is surprisingly sparse, compared to the other MILC mounts. With the rumor floating around that Samsung may get out of cameras entirely, I'm starting to think the NX never really made it out of Korea.

Failure is a relative term. Samsung could sell 500,000 cameras and by their standards think that they are "failing". They are also not an enthusiast brand, so the lack of third party support or online discussions is not surprising.