Originally posted by mecrox I’m not sure I agree with that because it’s so much a numbers game. The development costs of modern electronics are so enormous that only big sales numbers will suffice. Smartphones have already won by a country mile in some regards. Why? I would guess because they democratic. All you do is press the button. Press another button and your image lands on the internet. No recondite, gnostic knowledge is required to operate one, unlike the button-festooned ILC, with its inch-thick user manual, strange jargon and heavy software requirements by way of RAW developers.
That leaves the ILC. Obviously there is or will be room for different kinds of ILC aimed at different requirements but I was thinking of what will turn out to become the dominant, mainstream form, the kind that is bought by regular folks who want a nice camera. I see hundreds of them on holiday every week in my home town, mostly these days from the Far East. These are the new middle classes of Asia claiming their place in the world. The challenge for the camera-makers is to become more democratic or in future those folks will be holidaying with their smartphone and nothing else.
If cultural changes alter what people think of as photography and what they want from the act of taking a photograph then we should expect the form and nature of the camera to change too. We have to get away from bringing this back down to particular camera brands. In fifteen years we could all be using a brand which doesn’t yet exist.
Kodak's 1892 slogan was "You Press the Button, We Do the Rest." For over the last 100 years, I'd wager that "democratic" cameras have always out-sold technocratic ones. And yet, technocratic cameras have never "lost" to the democratic masses. That gnostic knowledge that so repels the masses, is exactly what attracts a minority of enthusiasts, artists, and professionals. Saying smartphones have won against ILCs is like saying flat walking paths have won against mountain climbing. Yes, the raw numbers incontrovertibly say the masses have spoken and the easy paths have won. And yet the masses have failed to stop a minority who prefer the harder option for some combination of the technical challenge, social status, and the rewards of the view.
ILCs don't need to compete against smartphones today just as film ILCs never really competed against Kodak Instamatics twenty years ago. Except on the edges of their two very different markets, few consider them true substitutes for the other. Instead, ILCs actually compete more with climbing ropes, artists easels, golf clubs, guitars, and the accoutrements of dozens of other skill-based hobbies and associated professions.
The development costs of modern electronics may be high but they are both largely shared and self-regulating. Today's smartphone buyer is paying for a proverbial 99% of the R&D and capital expenses to make next generation sensors, chips, and chip factories. Companies like Pentax don't develop electronics so much as integrate them. And integration is not so expensive. Nor must it be done every day or even every year. We can all see the maturation of ILCs going on right now.
As for the culture of photography, there isn't one. There are many. Cultural change may elevate the selfie and yet astrophotographers will keep taking pictures of the stars, bird photographers will keep taking pictures of birds, etc. etc. Maybe photographers from India will create a new style of hyper-vibrant color photography and yet others will still be taking black-and-white images, sticking with realistic colors for documentary purposes, or even going for muted colors for artistic purposes. No one will win, no culture will dominate. If anything, the internet promotes the fragmentation of culture by enabling members of each cultural fragment to find each other and develop a cohesive community that is detached from the masses. No one is forced to follow every photographer or even follow the most popular photographers on any social media platform, Each individual can pick a culture and ignore the rest if they wish.