Originally posted by monochrome I should have been more clear. I don’t assume all ILC buyers will die and not be replaced by the next generation. In fact, though I learned on a school Spotmatic, I was perfectly content to use an Instamatic and Flashcubes right through college, I moved up to an ILC at college graduation. My grandmother’s present was a KX, K50/1.4 and AF200 flash (I think an S, not a T). I still have the camera and lens. I suspect at least some PhoneTogs will move up over time.
Nice story!
Across the entire span of photographic history, there have always been a great mass of causal photographers who were perfectly content with their Kodak box cameras, brownies, instamatics, pocket 110s, polaroids, and now smartphones. There's no shame in being content with a simple mass-market camera -- they can take great pictures because great pictures are more about great compositions of great subjects than about great gear.
However, in every generation and every era there are a percentage of causal photographers who decide they want more: more control, more functionality, more pixels, more IQ, more ISO, more focal lengths, more macro, more studio lighting, etc. Maybe they've reached the limits of their smartphone's capabilities. Maybe the ergonomics of the phone aren't great for a whole day's shooting. Maybe they want to emulate some other great photographer. Maybe they like the idea of going retro. Maybe they think better gear will make them a better photographer. And maybe they don't want to look like they are just another PhoneTog when they taking pictures in public or at an event.
So how will a more serious PhoneTog differentiate themselves from the sea of iPhone-waving masses? They'll get a "real camera" and that almost inevitably leads them to ILCs. And from their first ILC (probably a cheap entry-level model or maybe a cheap used film camera), they'll graduate to an other ILC and then another and then another and then ... In that process, they'll learn whether they like EVFs or OVFs, whether they want a small-body camera or a large-body camera, whether they prefer one brand's user interfaces over another's (e.g., Sony vs Pentax). Some may even find that they love all kinds of cameras -- different tools for different purposes -- and end up buying multiple systems with a mix of the latest and the legacy gear.
The number of causal photographers in the world is at record levels thanks to: 1) smartphones (1.5 billion sold per year!), 2) social media (which motivates people to use their camera), and 3) the billions of people who are becoming middle class consumers in China, India, etc. As good a smartphones are, they can never satisfy 100% of the photographic needs of the 3 billion people that have smartphones. If only 1% to 2% of smartphone users get one "real camera," that's an install base of 30-60 million real cameras. And if some of those 1-2% upgrade their first real camera, buy a second camera, replace a broken camera, etc., it's easy to imagine quite a decent rate of annual sales.