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05-04-2010, 05:28 AM   #76
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
I think 2010 marks the year where APSC disappears from the semipro (enthusiast) SLR segment.
This after 2009, the year both Canon and Nikon introduced two high end semipro APS-C (used by many pro), the Eos 7D and D300S?

05-04-2010, 05:45 AM   #77
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QuoteOriginally posted by Lance B Quote
Let me ask you this. You are a new to DSLR purchaser and you have about $1,500 to spend on a camera and you have the choice of purchasing a high end APS C camera or a FF camera of the same size and specs.
...
At the moment, advanced amateurs seem to be looking at the $1,500 price point for their cameras. Yes, when FF sensors come down in price this will also mean that APS C sensors will also come down in price but, advanced amatuers will still have a $1,500 budget and will want to get the most camera for their money and this will be a FF camera. As I say, why get an APS C camera if you can get a FF camera for the same price.
...
It will happen, it is just a matter of when that price point is reached and once it is reached Pentax needs to be on the boat or they will be left standing at the dock.
Lol, better to be standing at the dock than join the voyage of the Marie Celeste. At the moment, there'll be no one on this boat because there aren't enough of these "advanced amateurs" to go round. $1500 is a great deal of money; not many have that to spend, let alone on a camera.

I'll go back to my original point. It's being suggested that Pentax should be in at least three and possibly four formats: medium format, full-frame DSLR, APS-C DSLR and, maybe, micro 4/3s EVIL.

Given Pentax's size and resources, I'd guess that's at least one and perhaps two segments too many. So which ones give?

None of this precludes Pentax moving to full-frame or a similar system eventually, because everything changes. But I'd guess that is much further off than many here think. Furthermore, at the moment Pentax has an APS-C lens range with some pretty big holes in it. The suggestion is that they continue with these holes while developing a full-frame system whose range of lenses will have even more holes in it. If quality zooms are your thing, Pentax even today isn't a very attractive system to buy into. So that makes two formats which these "advanced amateurs" may decide to pass on since the selection of lenses and accessories for either won't be up to snuff.

I'd say get walking right before you run but, hey, this is all clouds in the sky.
05-04-2010, 05:57 AM   #78
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If I am not mistaken, the last "official" word from Pentax about their lenses, was that they want to make completely WR the line up.

First, very unexpected, was the DFA 100. I think that if the next is one of the three amigos, or all of them, it could be a good indication that a FF is to be expected. But if it is the 17-70, or the 55-300, I'd say the Pentax FF is 33x44mm for the time being...
05-04-2010, 05:58 AM   #79
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Lol, better to be standing at the dock than join the voyage of the Marie Celeste. At the moment, there'll be no one on this boat because there aren't enough of these "advanced amateurs" to go round. $1500 is a great deal of money; not many have that to spend, let alone on a camera.
Let me remid you that the K-7 was sold for $1300 when released. I think that if the K-7 had been equipped with a FF sensor while keeping the unique body size it would have sold extremely well even at $1500. I guess 3x the numbers it actually did/does.

Many of you deniers were likely on Pentax side when they hesitated to jump on the digital wagon. Pentax were on your side then. I hope the company has learnt something about technology evolution over time. :ugh:

Try to sell a crop camera without nop notch spec (pentax spec.) in a couple of years when FF can be had for $1200-ish. Hint: how well do film camers sell now?

05-04-2010, 06:26 AM   #80
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QuoteOriginally posted by eurostar Quote
This after 2009, the year both Canon and Nikon introduced two high end semipro APS-C (used by many pro), the Eos 7D and D300S?
I considered that. If Canon and Nikon don't upgrade their offerings (8D, D400) this year then I see a good chance they'll never do. They may rather bet on 5D and D700 successors. There may be a last hickup if Nikon responds to the 7D though

I am talking about the semipro segment. I think that APS-C stays the format of choice in the pro segment for action photography. Because they are cropping anyway

With its 8fps and reportedly excellent and fast 19 point AF, the 7D is almost already in the action pro segment, of course. It's successor may be a pure pro model which crams 20+ MP into APSC.

So, if you consider the 7D a low cost pro camera and the D300s a refurbished 2007 model which got a video upgrade, then the supply of new APSC semipro cameras has already dried up.
05-04-2010, 06:37 AM   #81
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OK, Steve reluctantly, with a tear in his eye, got a Nikon D700

OK, Steve reluctantly, with a tear in his eye, got him a Nikon D700

Hows that?

A person who continually questioned peoples' desires for Pentax full frame just cashed out of Pentax' best gear:
K-7 & K20D & Limiteds to add Nikon D700 full frame

Pentax doesn't care if they loose people like Steve.
Pentax has a whole new group of customers thesedays that are happy to buy spray painted color cameras & plastic mount lenses.






QuoteOriginally posted by snostorm Quote
That's just misleading. Steve changed platforms not to persue (sic) his art, but to gain better professional support with worldwide coverage, better third party accessory (I'd guess mainly flash, since he is a flash guru) availability, and a the workflow advantage of being able to import settings from his editor to the camera. The very high ISO and AF performance of the D700 didin't hurt either. He even mentioned that it was ironic that he go for the D700 since he had always been an advocate of APS-C as a DSLR format. He has decided to go full time into photography as a profession, and this change is what motivated his move from Pentax -- I'd do the same in his position

All of his Pentax gear needed to be sold to finance the move to Nikon. I got the distinct impression that this wasn't necessarily his preference.

Scott
05-04-2010, 06:42 AM   #82
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Migration path

Let's not forget that it is possible to provide a fairly smooth migration from APS-C to FF by implementing a crop mode on your FF body. So Pentax would be able to tempt existing customers to upgrade their bodies to FF while preserving their existing investment in APS-C lenses, while further tempting them with new FF lens offerings.

Most people add to their collections incrementally. So an incremental upgrade path from APS-C to FF would appeal to many existing Pentax users, not just those who specifically desire FF. For instance, this body would amply cater to those people who crave the high-ISO prowess of the Kx in a more upmarket body.

Moreover, a FF body with the relative quality and value of a K-7 would almost certainly bring in new customers to the fold, not just existing Pentaxians. Some might "defect" from other systems, while some new SLR users might settle on Pentax because this product allays their fears about a future upgrade path.
05-04-2010, 06:47 AM   #83
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
I am talking about the semipro segment. I think that APS-C stays the format of choice in the pro segment for action photography. Because they are cropping anyway
Yes, I predict both basic FF and high spec aps-c in the semi pro segment. Manufacturers needs to save the option FF and high spec to a high margin segment for demanding pros.
Is I see it, this semi pro slot can more easily be filled with a FF from pentax than a "7D" from pentax. Adding sensor size is not as difficult as come up with super AF and super FPS and such.

05-04-2010, 06:49 AM   #84
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QuoteOriginally posted by gazonk Quote
There's a flaw in your reasoning here: The 5d (and 5d Mk II) doesn't fit your description: It's not very big and heavy, and it's by no means as robust as the K-7. And it has been on the market for a looong time.
It is built down to a price in order to make it cheap enough. Cut corners in robustness.

QuoteQuote:
Otherwise, I mostly agree with you that there will be a move to larger formats, and while I think that eventually Pentax can make larger-than-FF cameras that are very attractive to serious hobbyists (and I see no reason why these cameras won't drop down to the $1500 level, but I won't bet on how long time it will take), they may need to create a stop-gap FF camera in the meantime. And a "K-8" may have to be FF if it's going to be more than just a refinement of the K-7.

Some people may still prefer APS-C or even smaller formats though, e.g. birders. Personally, I would be reluctant to say good-bye to the DA70. But then, good old Pentax short teles were very compact too, e.g. the M-100/2.8. And they made some fabulously small ultra wides (e.g. the M-20/4).

Btw. did you now that contrary to common belief, quite a few FF lenses are still current, at least in Japan: Just have a look here (warning, huge PDF) at this very recent (K-7 appears in illustrations) catalogue of lenses which even includes two A lenses (one zoom and the 50/1.2:
http://www.pentax.jp/japan/imaging/catalog/pdf/lenses_accessories.pdf
Yes, I had forgotten about the A50mm f1.2.
05-04-2010, 07:03 AM   #85
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QuoteOriginally posted by Supernaut Quote
Yes, I predict both basic FF and high spec aps-c in the semi pro segment.
You can say so.

However, I define the pro segment as the segment of tools made for professionals making a living out of it, not a segment with a given price tag.

The 7D is a difficult case though. Because it appeals to both sport journalist pros and birding semipros.

So is the 5DmkII as it appeals to videographing pros


So, I needed to simplify a bit in making my statement (that APSC will be pushed out of semipro into entry-level).
05-04-2010, 07:13 AM   #86
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Some of these proposed scenarios are hilarious, especially the ones that go "If a FF was the same price as an APS-C which one would you buy?" Because a FF is never going to be the same price as APS-C. If the price of one comes down, so will the other, not only for cost reasons but so the manufacturers can differentiate their markets.

That is just obvious.

Next, reading the tea leaves of the current lenses to see what bodies will be released is ass-backwards. If there is a FF in the near Pentax future, that is only because then Pentax can introduce new lenses and make even more money. This is also dead obvious.

So my prediction is this... when FF Pentax comes, expect even existing lens models (FA Limiteds anyone?) to be re-issued in a new "improved" design. And expect the prices to go up significantly.

The 645D is a case in point, with a new version of an old lens released alongside it. And more to come.

Be careful what you wish for, indeed!
05-04-2010, 07:32 AM   #87
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QuoteOriginally posted by rparmar Quote
Some of these proposed scenarios are hilarious, especially the ones that go "If a FF was the same price as an APS-C which one would you buy?" Because a FF is never going to be the same price as APS-C. If the price of one comes down, so will the other, not only for cost reasons but so the manufacturers can differentiate their markets.
Answer this then if I turn down the hilarious factor by a couple of hundreds. If the aps-c was $1200 and a similar featured FF was $1500 which one would you buy?
05-04-2010, 07:38 AM   #88
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QuoteOriginally posted by Supernaut Quote
Answer this then if I turn down the hilarious factor by a couple of hundreds. If the aps-c was $1200 and a similar featured FF was $1500 which one would you buy?
I mainly shot wild birds, I would ever go for the APS-C one.
05-04-2010, 08:00 AM   #89
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QuoteOriginally posted by rparmar Quote
Next, reading the tea leaves of the current lenses to see what bodies will be released is ass-backwards. If there is a FF in the near Pentax future, that is only because then Pentax can introduce new lenses and make even more money. This is also dead obvious.
I think you misintepreted. The tea leaves being read was the fact that new lenses have slowed to to a trickle. Which could be a sign of an upcoming FF body.
05-04-2010, 08:00 AM   #90
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QuoteOriginally posted by Supernaut Quote
Answer this then if I turn down the hilarious factor by a couple of hundreds. If the aps-c was $1200 and a similar featured FF was $1500 which one would you buy?
I doubt Pentax would sell a FF for less than $1800. It would cannibalize the semi-pro APS-C camera if it was less than that.

FF: $1800+

Semi-Pro APS-C: $1100-1300

Entry APS-C: $$700-900
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