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05-21-2010, 02:32 AM   #16
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Hasn't it been the trend that prices gradually fall, but as soon as the new model is a certainty, the prices then shoot back up? Both the K10D and K20D were selling for more used a month after it's replacement came out than people were buying them for new 3 months prior.

05-21-2010, 04:12 AM   #17
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
You could get run over by a bus without having the K-7 in your hand, and what good would that be?
And what better would it be to get run over by a bus whilst having the K-7 in one's hand? WR doesn't go that far...
05-21-2010, 04:33 AM   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
And what better would it be to get run over by a bus whilst having the K-7 in one's hand? WR doesn't go that far...
No, but maybe SR does... ;-)
05-21-2010, 04:45 AM   #19
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There is always a new camera waiting in the wings, the question is more one of when it will be released than otherwise. Pentax seems to work on a 15 to 18 month replacement schedule, which would put the K7 replacement available in September or October.

As far as prices go, when a Hoya releases a camera, they usually keep it at full price for the first several months. Then, they discount the price a little, then offer rebates and finally discount the price a lot. How low will the K7 go? I am betting somewhere between 700 and 750 US Dollars, but who knows, the K20 went down to close to 600 dollars.

I don't see the Kx dropping in price much more. 450 with the kit has got to be about as low as they can go and still make a decent profit on it.

05-21-2010, 04:54 AM   #20
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
There is always a new camera waiting in the wings, the question is more one of when it will be released than otherwise. Pentax seems to work on a 15 to 18 month replacement schedule, which would put the K7 replacement available in September or October.
They've broken that track record with the K-x, so maybe the K-7 will get a replacement any time now?
05-21-2010, 08:43 AM   #21
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It's a common pricing model

It's called Price Skimming. It's a common pricing model where the price is high initially, when demand is high, and the price drops as demand drops, reacting to market influences such as competition. They figure that the consumer has a price point at which they will buy a product. Some want a product right away and will pay a high price for it. Others are willing to wait a while until the price drops somewhat before making the purchase. The objective is to sell for as high a price as possible. It's the same reason that cars are traditionally at their highest price on introduction and a couple thousand lower in price a year later. The longer we wait, the more we save. I typically can only wait 8 months.
05-21-2010, 09:02 AM   #22
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Lens Price Drop Please.

I would not mind a drop in lens prices.
05-21-2010, 09:05 AM   #23
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Lenses are accessories like ink cartridge, they do not need or want to drop price except when they do promotion

05-21-2010, 09:15 AM - 1 Like   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by iCrop Quote
It's called Price Skimming
This is a secondary effect only.

Why is it so difficult to see? 1. As long as technological progress prevails, prices keep going down. 2. As soon as technological progress slows down considerably will prices go up from release to release and already released products keep a stable price.

1: Digital cameras, computers, communication tariffs, ...

2: Optical lenses, cars, high end analog audio, beer, ...


BTW, this is why FF is so important. Because right now, only a few Pentax lenses will keep their value.
05-21-2010, 09:32 AM   #25
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QuoteOriginally posted by bobmaxja Quote
Lenses are accessories like ink cartridge, they do not need or want to drop price except when they do promotion
They did in mid-2008 when every company needed to liquidate inventory to source cash due to the credit crunch. Pentax Canada was dumping gear onto the market at fire sale prices. My K200D kit was $635 including the 18-55 + 50-200 lenses, and the FA 50/1.4 was CAN$200 flat. The average price variation from mid-2008 to 2010 has been just over 30% on lenses (and easy to compare with near $CAN parity to $US at both ends).

Since 2008 the $US has been falling (until a few weeks ago) steadily eroding price value, and the Yen has been up. This has caused general price increases in lenses. Over-production and supply chain saturation has meant stiff factory order cutbacks to keep inventory low and cash high as companies hedging against deflation from a high price and margin starting point. There's huge elasticity in the channel right now.

Bodies have high model turnover and tech advances are more readily apparent, so are competitive leaders. Prices may decelerate faster here going forward, but I would agree the K-x may be near bottom. Pentax has no room for a brand loss leader (where Canikon can afford a little channel cannibalization to move stock), which is why I've always thought Pentax really needs a 3 DSLR/EVIL whatever lineup. They're price point exposed. The K-7 can only drop so far before margins shrink to nil. Not good on your flagship; no retained earnings and future investment. Hoya be unhappy.

Lenses should cling to the high point with FOREX being the major determinant for price variations globally. This market is always an interesting one to watch for its true globalization, cultural impact, and swift product turnover on one end (bodies), and very slow product turnover on the other (lenses). It's a real canary industry and very competitive.
05-21-2010, 09:57 AM   #26
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
This is a secondary effect only.
1. As long as technological progress prevails, prices keep going down.
Not universally true. The "price" for a cellphone" paid at the till is now actually higher than it was 5 years ago, for example.

We on average pay more now because we want a more functional smartphone. This is good in that technology advances mean that for a little more $$$ we can get more features, but price as a function of demand is relative. To get a true measure we also have to look at value.

The average household income is flat or declining in NA, so the opportunity cost here is a net loss as more $$$ are going to the smartphone than to other items. We are paying more to consume this product as a % of the household budget, but are actually producing less (with a side effect of unemployment). If the market were truly rational (an idea that died about 24 months ago) people would not make such poor choices. But they do. It's human nature. We can have irrational demands for new technology (often called LBA or tech fetishes) that actually creating pricing that makes no sense to that individual, but also is a market warping issue. Apple has mastered that warp.

Therefore the relative price of the phone is now much higher, and the value both subjective and questionable. Many of these tech advances are consumptive, not productive. OTOH a Blackberry for biz may increase productivity, so for this side of the equation, the effect may be a net return. The jury is out on that one.

Technology can increase prices. Advances in health care is one example. We get superior care from the advances, but are we really paying the real price? It seems we've been borrowing to do so. Terminal care patients who are by far the recipients of some of the most technologically advanced care alas, cannot pay the nominal price of the technology that serviced them. They did not pay it when they were alive, and cannot pay after death. This is one of a number of economic paradoxes where technology increases costs without a productivity gain elsewhere to balance them.

Last edited by Aristophanes; 05-21-2010 at 11:02 AM.
05-21-2010, 12:27 PM   #27
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Not universally true. The "price" for a cellphone" paid at the till is now actually higher than it was 5 years ago, for example.

We on average pay more now because we want a more functional smartphone. This is good in that technology advances mean that for a little more $$$ we can get more features, but price as a function of demand is relative. To get a true measure we also have to look at value.

The average household income is flat or declining in NA, so the opportunity cost here is a net loss as more $$$ are going to the smartphone than to other items. We are paying more to consume this product as a % of the household budget, but are actually producing less (with a side effect of unemployment). If the market were truly rational (an idea that died about 24 months ago) people would not make such poor choices. But they do. It's human nature. We can have irrational demands for new technology (often called LBA or tech fetishes) that actually creating pricing that makes no sense to that individual, but also is a market warping issue. Apple has mastered that warp.

Therefore the relative price of the phone is now much higher, and the value both subjective and questionable. Many of these tech advances are consumptive, not productive. OTOH a Blackberry for biz may increase productivity, so for this side of the equation, the effect may be a net return. The jury is out on that one.

Technology can increase prices. Advances in health care is one example. We get superior care from the advances, but are we really paying the real price? It seems we've been borrowing to do so. Terminal care patients who are by far the recipients of some of the most technologically advanced care alas, cannot pay the nominal price of the technology that serviced them. They did not pay it when they were alive, and cannot pay after death. This is one of a number of economic paradoxes where technology increases costs without a productivity gain elsewhere to balance them.
Actually, not really. You're getting a significantly better value for your money now with cell phones. Cell phones are a somewhat odd commodity in that, like prescription drugs, the entire world's market is subsidized indirectly by the American consumer getting shafted. Cell phones were extremely expensive for very limited functionality until someone came up with the idea of bundling phone discounts to contracts. My first cell phone was several hundred dollars retail, had to be screwed into an external antenna (optional external car antenna!), and was attached to a bag that contained the battery. It was a BIG DEAL (tm) because the bag could function outside of the car, unlike other car phones which had to be wired directly into the car's electrical systems.

Once someone came up with the idea of bundling the phone right to the contract, the cost of ownership was just relocated, hidden along the length of the contract rather than paid up front. You never directly saw it unless you tried to cancel and were hit with the cost of the phone in addition to cancellation fees.

Now, mostly due to European influence and prepaid temporary phones, the American consumer is getting wise to the idea that contracts are almost never in your best interest, and the provider with a long locked in contract is not a provider that cares deeply about your happiness with them. So now the costs are swinging back the other way, and more people pay the actual retail cost for their phone. It'd be hard to say phones are more expensive though, since now you can get a Droid with unlimited talk and minutes for much less upfront AND much less per month than you used to get with the crappy analog bag phones.
05-21-2010, 03:21 PM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
1. As long as technological progress prevails, prices keep going down.
Tell that to my cable bill. And my phone bill.
05-21-2010, 03:33 PM   #29
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QuoteOriginally posted by RMabo Quote
It is normal for prices to start fall when the camera has been 6 months on the market. Not because a new body is expected to come out after 6 months (the bodies are replaced every 18 month, not 6) but because market demands lower prices.
Competition comes out with new cameras, and an answer to them is lowering prices to give even more value for money.
Makes sense. Early adopters are willingt top pay the premium. Also, after 6 months, the new model starts to appear in the used market exerting downward pressure on price.

QuoteOriginally posted by RMabo Quote
then they will be out before Christmas this year -
Possibly

QuoteOriginally posted by RMabo Quote
and at a higher price than what the K-x and K-7 sells for today.
Certainly.
05-21-2010, 03:40 PM   #30
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Not universally true. The "price" for a cellphone" paid at the till is now actually higher than it was 5 years ago, for example.
I agree that it isn't universally true. Few things are.

I said it is the primary effect. I didn't say that secondary effects cannot temporarily mask it.

Cellphones as said before, may be a bad example. As they evolve into the digital companion which desktops and laptops never have been. So of course, their prices will keep rising as their functions multiply faster. In a couple of years, whenever you approach a flatscreen with your digital companion in your pocket, the flatscreen will display your preferred working environment and offer access to all your data. But not at a current iPhone price...
QuoteOriginally posted by Jodokast96 Quote
Tell that to my cable bill. And my phone bill.
My wired voice phone bill has declined dramatically Your's increased?
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