[Aristophanes]

Funny...EVIL sells like a hot cakes.
Hoya can sell 100 EVIL vs 10 FF cameras.

FF will be...Don't worry

But if the margin on an EVIL is $40 and the margin on an FF is $450...

Now factor in a 10% drop and the effect on the assembly line for both. they're not relative. If you make a mistake on a large production run, you eat inventory for quarters afterwards. On a small production run, you take a lesser charge and likely still retain margins.

Commodity supply comes with its own risks.

Right now there is major criticism of Canon for having too many models on the market and little ability to differentiate. Their newest ad campaign almost implies that for different shooting situations, the consumer needs different cameras. In the boardroom, this is a dream. In a deflationary market, this is plain stupid marketing, and some analysts have taken note of Canon's lack of focus (sic).

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Last edited by Aristophanes; 07-14-2010 at 11:18 AM.

[falconeye]

Commodity supply comes with its own risks.

I agree.
An SLD (Single Lens Digital, formerly known as EVIL) camera for Pentax isn't suicide if and only if they manage to provide a great K-mount adapter. Something other brands failed with.

Look at Olympus. Once a promising player in the SLR market. Now risking to be crushed between the giant teeths of Panasonic/Samsung/Sony. As soon as the convergence of the SLD market and video market is close to being complete, Olympus should struggle to survive.

So, the SLD is a viable option to expand market share. But only if you stay strong in your home market, aka SLR. And SLR moves FF -- last but not least because of the up pressure from SLD cameras which are in the process of taking over the P&S market.

[Pentaxor]

minimum sensor size requirement for an SLD should be APS-C. if anything smaller than that, screw it.

[fzwo]

Yes, an EVIL camera by Pentax should have an APS-C sized sensor and fully compatible K-mount adaptor (supporting screw drive, SDM, aperture, EXIF, and possibly lens correction - all at full speed).

But such a camera would also IMHO absolutely have to have a great built-in EVF (no fake-prism hump!), small built-in flash, flash system compatibility to DSLR system, very small lenses (Pentax is in a good position here with their pancake experience), very good contrast AF and very good video mode.

Sony leads the way at the moment. I don't know if Pentax has the resources, know-how, will, and brand recognition to compete with that. I think they may have to, at some point, so they should probably just go at it early and with full force, not some me-too product with two boring kit lenses. I hope they will, and as a consequence I hope to reap synergies from this in future Pentax DSLRs' video capabilites and a compact, limited-like dedicates HSS flash.

[pxpaulx]

Sony leads the way at the moment. I don't know if Pentax has the resources, know-how, will, and brand recognition to compete with that. I think they may have to, at some point, so they should probably just go at it early and with full force, not some me-too product with two boring kit lenses. I hope they will, and as a consequence I hope to reap synergies from this in future Pentax DSLRs' video capabilites and a compact, limited-like dedicates HSS flash.

I'm curious how you figure sony leads the way at the moment? because they have the newest release? I don't see it - I asked about interest at the local chain last week and he said there hasn't been much interest (wasn't exactly front and center either). Have you handled an NEX? It is not a photographer friendly camera. The sony name will get it some requisite sales, and I certainly believe they will come out with a more photographer-friendly model (considering the new camcorder E mount that was announced today), but the NEX is only ground breaking in its' simplicity and lack of tactile control.

[Aristophanes]

I'm curious how you figure sony leads the way at the moment? because they have the newest release? I don't see it - I asked about interest at the local chain last week and he said there hasn't been much interest (wasn't exactly front and center either). Have you handled an NEX? It is not a photographer friendly camera. The sony name will get it some requisite sales, and I certainly believe they will come out with a more photographer-friendly model (considering the new camcorder E mount that was announced today), but the NEX is only ground breaking in its' simplicity and lack of tactile control.

I have handled a NEX and it looked and felt like a pack of cigarettes balanced on a can of beer.

It's a glorified P&S, and frankly, doesn't really threaten core DSLR sales. If I were Sony, I'd downplay the interchangeable lens bit as I think there will be much less of this than anticipated.

Oly, Panny, and Samsung retain legacy element of known camera body and ergonomics design. They'll have more success in the long run I expect, but the NEX sensor is superior.

IMNSHO I think the market may, for a faddish brief while, come together over this EVIL thing, but then it will diverge again as many pros, prosumers, and discerning hobbyists with large hands and wallets, move back somewhat.

It's kind of analogous to the evolution of the iPod. First Gen was pretty big, then the minis and nanos came to utterly dominate sales, until the Touch and iPhone went back to larger again for truly functional reasons. There's a place for the smaller item as an adjunct to the more featured larger one.

[Pål Jensen]

Sony leads the way at the moment. I don't know if Pentax has the resources, know-how, will, and brand recognition to compete with that. .

What Pentax lack is distribution power. It is no accident that the EVIL champions are electronic giants. EVIL's are currently a gadget and they sell through gadgets stores that sell other gadgets from the same manufacturers. This is the main problem....

[pxpaulx]

IMNSHO I think the market may, for a faddish brief while, come together over this EVIL thing, but then it will diverge again as many pros, prosumers, and discerning hobbyists with large hands and wallets, move back somewhat.

I completely agree. I think the market for these cameras will grow - but some will quickly discard their DSLR only to realize they do miss it (personally, though I am probably using my e-pl1 and gf1 before it 75% of the time, when I pick up the k20 and 50-135 I know I could never give it up). Others will use it but find limitations in the available lenses, and not want to go completely manual with legacy glass and end up taking the step up to a dslr anyway.

I think as a market segment on its' own it will last, primarily because the cameras are a great compliment to a larger system; owners who end up upgrading will keep it because as we all know after a year or two today's body is yesterday's news, and other more experienced owners will buy it knowing it is only a compliment to a more complete system.

[Pentaxor]

I agree with some of the assessments here regarding the Sony NEX and Samsung NX system. NEX has better sensor, while the NX has better ergo and tactile control. if you are not going for HIGH ISO nor use it most of the time, you are better off with the NX instead. although I have some recommendations for both systems.

for the NEX system : needs huge improvement in body and ergo design. it's ugly and crippled.

for the NX system: needs improvement in sensor and slight improvement with ergonomics.

[fzwo]

I'm curious how you figure sony leads the way at the moment?

They, together with Panasonic's side of mFT, have the most advanced mount and concept. Samsung's attempt is another me-too product that looks good on paper. It will sell, of course, but Sony and Panasonic are in this system for the long run, while Samsung may or may not be.

Sony and Panasonic are the first to realize the still/video convergence in their systems, and they both have the knowledge, r&d, market, brand recognition, distribution, money and will to further it. Samsung has money, r&d capacity, distribution and kind of a name, but has in the past shown a lack of "feel" for the photo market. Sony and Panasonic are big in the video game, Samsung is a gadget manufacturer that puts out products made to trump others in specs. I have huge respect for them for how they manage to do that consistently, yet am utterly amazed at how they always fail at the stuff you don't put on a spec sheet.

The Samsung NX is a half-hearted attempt at creating a DSLR without a mirror. Sony and Olympus realize that mirrorless systems lend themselves to cameras that don't look or behave like DSLRs. In the future, we will see proper, big "DSLRs" that feature electronic viewfinders. But the technology isn't there yet and I think Samsung's NX offerings are much too conservative (even though, on the other hand, Sony's NEX cameras have little appeal for "serious" shooters - yet).

It's a glorified P&S, and frankly, doesn't really threaten core DSLR sales. If I were Sony, I'd downplay the interchangeable lens bit as I think there will be much less of this than anticipated.

Of course these are p&s cameras. This is where most of the market is, this is where Sony has great brand recognition and distribution, and this is where their designers and developers excel. All this electronic stuff like sweep panorama (which I think is pretty sweet) etc. will play a much bigger role in the future, and Sony is at the forefront. Of course, Panasonic and Samsung aren't far behind, but Sony has always had some fresher ideas.

Make no mistake, though: It's very serious. And they are doing the exact opposite of downplaying the interchangeable lenses. Have you seen how huge the mount is, and how big and beautifully made the lenses are (Never mind that they look ridiculous on the NEX-3 and 5)? This was not done by chance or technical necessity. It was done to send a message.

IMNSHO I think the market may, for a faddish brief while, come together over this EVIL thing, but then it will diverge again as many pros, prosumers, and discerning hobbyists with large hands and wallets, move back somewhat.

It's kind of analogous to the evolution of the iPod. First Gen was pretty big, then the minis and nanos came to utterly dominate sales, until the Touch and iPhone went back to larger again for truly functional reasons. There's a place for the smaller item as an adjunct to the more featured larger one.

Yes and no. I think in the long run, we're going to go full EVIL. Even Pro cameras are going to use EVFs. They aren't good enough yet, but they promise benefits such as live histogram, live WB preview, live exposure preview, no mirror blackout, automatic MF magnification, zebra highlight/shadow warning etc. - and they will lose any perceptible lag, color problems, and low resolution. I'm even guessing that pro or semi-pro models will get EVFs and E-mounts (with fully working adaptors for their old mounts) before cheaper mass-market DSLRs will do, because the high-quality EVFs and fast electronics will be expensive in the beginning.

Until then, EVIL cameras will probabl mostly occupy a niche between DSLRs and high-end compacts. This category won't go away, but will blend seamlessly with DSLRs, which will move to the shorter E-mounts.

What Pentax lack is distribution power. It is no accident that the EVIL champions are electronic giants. EVIL's are currently a gadget and they sell through gadgets stores that sell other gadgets from the same manufacturers. This is the main problem....

Absolutely! Nonetheless, EVIL is the future, and Pentax should not make the mistake and miss the train (like Leica did with AF) - but of course they should also absolutely not rush it. They must design a proper system that is both backwards-compatible and future proof.

[nosnoop]

I'm curious how you figure sony leads the way at the moment? because they have the newest release? I don't see it

Oh yes, it is, at least in Japan. Sony NEX has been the best selling mirrorless system since its release; and should rank around #6 in DSLR sales in the month of June.

It's a glorified P&S, and frankly, doesn't really threaten core DSLR sales. If I were Sony, I'd downplay the interchangeable lens bit as I think there will be much less of this than anticipated..

Don't draw your conclusion so quickly. NEX-5 and 3 are just the first ones out of the gate, targeting P&S upgraders. The rumored NEX-7 for Photokina is supposed to feature more conventional control and form factor.

[Kunzite]

That's the initial spike, let's wait for a while and see.

[nosnoop]

That's the initial spike, let's wait for a while and see.

Of course, each camera has its honey moon period; so did Oly PEN, which has now established its footing in the sales chart.
Nevertheless, NEX is doing very well as a new camera/system release, better than how K-7 and K-x did in their first few weeks. And NEX accounts for majority of Sony DSLR sales in Japan, at least of now.

[mattdm]

Sony and Panasonic are the first to realize the still/video convergence in their systems, and they both have the knowledge, r&d, market, brand recognition, distribution, money and will to further it.

And as if by magic, to demonstrate your point: Sony unveils NEX-VG10 E-mount HD camcorder: Digital Photography Review

[traderdrew]

I have no problems with the micro 4/3's format. It is indistinguishable (with a good lens) from my KX and K7 at 11 x 14. The nice thing about the 4/3's format is it crops to 11 x 14 nicely. You only lose a tiny bit off the ends of each frame.

If I was shooting people and places around 35mm or so, I wouldn't invest in a expensive camera. I think I could do a lot with a 4/3 camera in this general category if I go to the right places.

I like to shoot close up, macro (with a strong depth of field), telephoto and fast moving objects. I don't expect an inexpensive camera to do these things. I suspect Pentax will bring back the 400mm or even a 600mm in a DA* version. If they don't then, maybe I will go back to Nikon or even Canon.

I have seen what FF can do. I have been impressed with image quality from them. I don't really know what I am talking about but, I suspect with Moore's Law in full effect, sensors are just going to get better and better. I'm not sure FF is going to be as competitive in 2 to 4 years once cameras pass 20 megapixels and able to handle high iso noise.