Originally posted by lol101 For the life of me, I just cannot see the point of joining µ43 now...
After letting Pana and Oly get all the profits they could in the first, most lucrative, period, they would come in what is soon going to be an overcrowded area where margins are going to fall dramatically: late they are, very late.
µAPS-C is a bit better with only the first cameras getting out now (Sony & Samsung) but is going the same way with prices falling down fast.
And please, can someone tell me why MILC cameras would necesarily be the "future" of the camera business?
Sure, with a pancake lens, they are small and quiet: this will surely appeal to some people (like me...) but those people will buy a body, one or two primes and hat's it, hardly more than a niche.
What about the general crowd? Just put a zoom on these tiny cameras and they become as bulky and less enjoyable to use than any DSLR can be with slower AF and questionable VF (if any)... I can clearly see some of the P&S crowd being lured into MILC but I can also see them running back to their P&S when they'll realize how big a MILC camera is whith a 18-200 zoom...
Furthermore, it's been told time and again (and again) that Pentax just doesn't have what it takes to run 3 lens lines at the same time... did anything change on this front?
lol... when people talk about EVILs or MILCs being the future of the business, they don't necessarily believe (at least I don't) that the format will wipe out DSLRs. But such cameras do stand a chance of becoming the largest single segment of the market for dedicated cameras. Here are the demographics that I believe will come together to give EVILs/MILCs a lion's share of the market (but I could be completely deluded):
A) Serious photo enthusiasts (like me) who own extensive DSLR systems but want a second camera or system that's smaller and lighter (i.e. more convenient) than a DSLR but still provides results much better than typical digicams. If we're honest with ourselves, this is almost all of us. We all recognize there are situations when the DSLR is best left at home.
B) Non-enthusiast members of the general public who have been using digicams long enough to begin to notice their shortcomings and want something better.
I work in New York City - a place where one sees a lot of tourists each day. I have noticed that more and more of these tourists are carrying DSLRs (one used to see them shooting with tiny digicams). Now, some of these people will undoubtedly evolve into the next generation of photo and DSLR enthusiasts. But historical sales trends make it pretty clear that it won't be most of them. It's a no-brainer that many of these people would prefer cameras that are noticeably smaller and lighter than DSLRs - if they can get, say, 80-90% of the quality.
Now, while I don't see DSLRs going away - professionals and serious enthusiasts will still appreciate what these cameras have to offer - it is clear that the market for DSLRs is mature and may have reached its peak in terms of annual sales. We're not going to see a lot of growth - and the sales figures from the major camera makers back up my contention.
At the same time, the market for small, entry-level digicams is also likely to suffer as many users opt for cell-phone cameras, which continue to improve in both quality and ability, and other users move up to EVILs/MILCs. So don't look for a lot of growth here, either.
One part of the digicam market that is likely to grow, however, is the compact superzoom segment. I'm not talking about Canon SX20s, Panasonic FZ35s, Nikon P100s and Fujifilm HS10s. I'm talking about Canon SX210s, Panasonic ZS5s, Samsung HZ35s and Casio FH100s. This segment will take care of the people who might be put off by the size of an EVIL or MILC with an 18-200mm zoom on it. In fact, those larger P&S superzooms - the so-called bridge cameras - will also probably suffer due to the availability of EVILs/MILCs just above them and better compact superzooms just below them.
'Compact Super Zoom' Camera Group Test (Q2 2010) Review: 1. Introduction: Digital Photography Review
To sum up, for the next 5-to-7 years, I see slow or no growth in DSLRs and compact, entry-level digicams with most of the growth in the EVIL/MILC and compact superzoom segments. It's hard to predict what will happen beyond that as both economic factors and technical progress will be the overriding influences on the camera market.
That's my take on it. But I certainly don't have all the answers. Feel free to poke holes in my theories and assumptions. We're all friends here.