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06-24-2010, 02:17 AM   #1
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Japan: EVIL ~30% market share; June sales update

In Japan, DSLR sales has increased 34.9% year over year in the month of May.

Of significance is that in the last week of May, EVIL sales has almost reached the 30% mark at 29.9% market share.



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Last edited by nosnoop; 07-16-2010 at 01:24 PM.
06-24-2010, 04:16 AM   #2
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QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
Of significance is that in the last week of May, EVIL sales has almost reached the 30% mark at 29.9% market share.
Thanks for posting, very interesting. "EVIL" is a little confusing, since the most popular of these cameras have no viewfinder at all - but maybe LCD live view counts as a "viewfinder"?

To me it's pretty obvious that Pentax needs to enter this market. Very soon. And I think they will, after all they seem to be very determined to regain a position as one of the main camera makers in Japan, and there they will need this before anywhere else, I think.
06-24-2010, 04:25 AM   #3
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QuoteOriginally posted by gazonk Quote
To me it's pretty obvious that Pentax needs to enter this market. Very soon. And I think they will, after all they seem to be very determined to regain a position as one of the main camera makers in Japan, and there they will need this before anywhere else, I think.
Not at all. This is pretty meaningless. How are P&S doing?
EVIL's is just another type of P&S. Pentax should stay away and consentrate on DSLR's instead of cameras lacking a very important feature.
06-24-2010, 04:57 AM   #4
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pl Jensen Quote
Not at all. This is pretty meaningless. How are P&S doing?
EVIL's is just another type of P&S. Pentax should stay away and consentrate on DSLR's instead of cameras lacking a very important feature.

What would you consider the Olympus E-P2. It has an optional viewfinder.

Here's yet another "pro" who loves that camera:

The Visual Science Lab/Kirk Tuck: The EP2, San Antonio Fun shoot, shake out, field test, fun color stuff.

To be honest I was skeptical until I kept reading really positive reviews of the camera from people who actually like to go out and take photos. Without a doubt it's the happiest I've been with a camera purchase in years. It's not a "studio" camera or whatever, it's just a camera for people who want to have fun with photography.

I sure wish Pentax would release something like the E-P2 instead of spending what little R/D money they probably have chasing Canon and Nikon who they will never catch.

That said I just can't see Pentax doing this. Don't see them doing 24x36 either unless it's small and cheap.

06-24-2010, 05:49 AM   #5
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Pentax has filed m4/3 lens patents

Pentax has filed m4/3 lens patents

But maybe this is so Tokina can then produce m4/3 lenses designed by Pentax for Panasonic, Olympus, & eventually Canon & Nikon too

Well assuming Canon and Nikon see the need for m4/3.


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06-24-2010, 06:58 AM   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pl Jensen Quote
Not at all. This is pretty meaningless. How are P&S doing?
EVIL's is just another type of P&S. Pentax should stay away and consentrate on DSLR's instead of cameras lacking a very important feature.
It doesn't help that you and I think that a viewfinder is a very important feature as long as a large fraction the mass market currently thinks that how your camera looks hanging on your shoulder is more important than being able to look through your camera. In addition, current P&S upgraders are completely unaware of the existence of viewfinders.

And it's very dangerous to dismiss these cameras as "just another type of P&S". They're very capable cameras for those that manage without a real viewfinder.
06-24-2010, 07:03 AM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by stanleyk Quote
Yes, that blue sky in photo #2 is definitely "pro".

It's mottled awful. Maybe that's the JPEG for web, but you'd expect a pro to get that right.
06-24-2010, 08:31 AM   #8
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29.9% is a pretty big chunk of market share and I think the companys who haven't jumped in are taking a long look at this market trend.

06-24-2010, 10:27 AM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pl Jensen Quote
EVIL's is just another type of P&S.
This statement is false for a reasonable definition of "P&S".

P&S generally implies "designed primarily for simple operation". I'd agree for the Sony NEX-5 and NEX-3, but would disagree for the Panasonic GF-1, GH-1, etc.

EVILs are the future and here to stay. Whether Pentax has missed the boat (the period where they could have kept high margins on EVILs and established their own mirrorless system) can still be disputed. I'm thinking yes and they will have to join the Samsung NX, join m43 or become even more niche than before. Only a matter of time.
06-24-2010, 10:37 AM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by juu Quote
This statement is false for a reasonable definition of "P&S".

P&S generally implies "designed primarily for simple operation". I'd agree for the Sony NEX-5 and NEX-3, but would disagree for the Panasonic GF-1, GH-1, etc.

EVILs are the future and here to stay. Whether Pentax has missed the boat (the period where they could have kept high margins on EVILs and established a mirrorless system) can still be disputed. I'm thinking yes and they will have to join the Samsung NX, join m43 or become even more niche than before. Only a matter of time.
EVIL's are the future of what? Of the EVIL market segment, or are they taking over everything?

You make it sound like markets displace one another when, in fact, historically, markets have strong overlap. It is entirely possible (even likely) for instance, that, in much the same way that households have 2 TV's or computers or phones, they'll have 2 or more cameras. It used to be that a household had a single camera. Then Instamatics made it possible for everyone to have one. very cheaply, and so on to P&S and cameraphones.

Meaning that DSLR sales could be only marginally affected and everyone wins with more cameras sold of more types to more people at lower prices. Just because there's a new system doesn't mean people are abandoning the old one that has superior IQ, pedigree, cachet, and vested user loyalty, I might add.

And EVILS'are not high-margin because as new tech, they are very high cost. It will be 3 years at least before Sony makes any profit off their NEX developments (and look at Sony stock to see how the market has reacted with a giant yawn to Sony lately).

Joining M43 would be a disaster for the k-mount and destroy Pentax by killing the loyal user base (this Forum) and turning itself into a simple commodity manufacturer in a very fractured market. This is precisely where no corporation wants to be.

You need a reality check.
06-24-2010, 11:18 AM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
EVIL's are the future of what?
They are the future in the way that LCDs have largely displaced CRTs.

QuoteQuote:
Of the EVIL market segment, or are they taking over everything?
Of the interchangeable lens camera market segment.

QuoteQuote:
It is entirely possible (even likely) for instance, that, in much the same way that households have 2 TV's or computers or phones, they'll have 2 or more cameras
There are real dis-economies to owning two incompatible camera systems. There are some incentives if they are dissimilar enough (e.g., FF + m43) but quite little if they are similar (EVIL APSC + DSLR APSC).

QuoteQuote:
Just because there's a new system doesn't mean people are abandoning the old one that has superior IQ, pedigree, cachet, and vested user loyalty, I might add.
Read the m43 forum, it does mean exactly that in many cases.

QuoteQuote:
And EVILS'are not high-margin because as new tech, they are very high cost. It will be 3 years at least before Sony makes any profit off their NEX developments.
They likely used to have a high gross profit margin. And for companies with decent CDAF there probably isn't that much new tech.

QuoteQuote:
(and look at Sony stock to see how the market has reacted with a giant yawn to Sony lately)
Let's not be silly. The costs for developing NEX are not a huge part of the Sony balance sheet and cannot be the reason why their stock is under-performing.

QuoteQuote:
Joining M43 would be [..] turning itself into a simple commodity manufacturer
With their marketing, they actually indeed risk that. Then again, with their marketing they risk even worse things if they don't do that.
06-24-2010, 12:02 PM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by juu Quote
They are the future in the way that LCDs have largely displaced CRTs.

Of the interchangeable lens camera market segment.

There are real dis-economies to owning two incompatible camera systems. There are some incentives if they are dissimilar enough (e.g., FF + m43) but quite little if they are similar (EVIL APSC + DSLR APSC).

Read the m43 forum, it does mean exactly that in many cases.

They likely used to have a high gross profit margin. And for companies with decent CDAF there probably isn't that much new tech.

Let's not be silly. The costs for developing NEX are not a huge part of the Sony balance sheet and cannot be the reason why their stock is under-performing.

With their marketing, they actually indeed risk that. Then again, with their marketing they risk even worse things if they don't do that.
Good Lord. I'm an economist and a marketing analyst. You're just painting a company into a deathtrap scenario by arguing that they can join another company's standard and then out-market them. Out-market Panasonic? Pentax? Are you kidding? Do you know the disproportionate economies-of-scale you are talking about relative to unit sales? Pentax's entire revenue stream from unit sales is a rounding error in Panasonic's entire marketing budget. I am actually surprised that Olympus is in bed with them (which may explain why Oly and Panny lenses actually don't work so well on each other's bodies, IS etc.).

There are as many dis-economies of scale in owning a P&S and a DSLR. You're making it sound like every lens from the DSLR era forthcoming under EVIL/M43 is going to supremely compatible for the ever after, when it is known that theese lenses are specifically designed with proprietary, in-camera algorithms that maximize their use on one brand at the expense of another brand (and we're starting to see that in Adobe LR as well as in-camera with Pentax as well as other brands).

Your mistake is treating the entire interchangeable lens market as homogeneous, which it most certainly is not. Look how Flip has turned upside down the videocam market with a totally proprietary system.

The entire history of cameras is to not have compatible lens systems to "lock in" the consumer. It's worked pretty well so far, and it will continue to work in the future. When Konica Minolta saw that they could do what you are suggesting or exit the market, the took the latter. It was really their only choice save become somebody else's optics maker.

There are solid reasons for EVIL, but not necessarily economically substitutive ones, nor even as the dominant force in interchangeable lens bodies. Studies have shown that a large# of DSLR users never buy a 2nd lens!!!

This is not a Schadenfreude scenario. The history of photographic companies is those that cheapen their product often lose. Look to he stereo and hi-fi market for cross-comparisons of companies (McIntosh for example) that take "older" tech and become extremely profitable in niches because the demand for quality exceeds the costs of amortizing a commodity infrastructure.

Do you have any idea how many new camera systems have failed relative to those that have succeeded? it's probably a deathrate of over 90%. There's a very solid reason why the extremely well-run Canon has not dipped in here yet. There's market data showing that the EVIL market has limits to its appeal for many consumers. It will surge, then settle, then it will have to compete. I am not sure that small sensors can compete for many, high-margin consumers.
06-24-2010, 12:21 PM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Joining M43 would be a disaster for the k-mount and destroy Pentax by killing the loyal user base (this Forum) and turning itself into a simple commodity manufacturer in a very fractured market. This is precisely where no corporation wants to be.

You need a reality check.

VERY well put!
06-24-2010, 12:28 PM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by juu Quote
Of the interchangeable lens camera market segment.
Huh?? Who wants a tiny camera with large interchangeable lenses? Hardly anyone; they'll eventually end up with a similar P&S with a fixed zoom lens - makes more sense. From the data it is obvious that the EVIL's steals customers from P&S, not other interchangable lenses cameras (DSLR's).
An EVIL is a interchangeable camera witthout a decent finder. That is not a plus. All features of an electronic finder can be included in a DSLR without removing the cameras main feature; a state of the art finder that shows the real thing.

Small interchangeable camera systems different for the traditional (D)SLR has been tried before. They all sold well initially, the flopped; ie. APS film SLR's; Pentax Auto 110.
06-24-2010, 01:26 PM   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pl Jensen Quote
Huh?? Who wants a tiny camera with large interchangeable lenses? Hardly anyone; they'll eventually end up with a similar P&S with a fixed zoom lens - makes more sense. From the data it is obvious that the EVIL's steals customers from P&S, not other interchangable lenses cameras (DSLR's).
An EVIL is a interchangeable camera witthout a decent finder. That is not a plus. All features of an electronic finder can be included in a DSLR without removing the cameras main feature; a state of the art finder that shows the real thing.

Small interchangeable camera systems different for the traditional (D)SLR has been tried before. They all sold well initially, the flopped; ie. APS film SLR's; Pentax Auto 110.
Alleluia and Amen if I may use such religious terms on a profane subject!

I have both a K10 with some Pentax lenses, a 5D and a NX10 and while the NX will probably push the K10 towards eBay (smaller setup than anything Pentax has to offer with pancake lenses), it cannot replace a DSLR and looks quite ridiculous as soon as a relatively big lens is mounted.

A NX with a f2.8 zoom or a f1.4 prime doesn't make a lot of sense (imo) compared to a K-7 with similar lenses.

Maybe these cameras will take over the entry level segment (which makes up for the majority of DSLR sales... so there could be some risks for manufacturer not taking this into account) but a NX10 + 18-250 or even 50-200 doesn't have any real advantage over a K-x with similar lenses and for the more advanced amateurs and pros, DSLRs are here to stay.

Furthermore, if the NX EVF really represents the best technology one can found on this front, there is quite some room for improvements until OVF's are a thing of the past...

Last edited by lol101; 06-24-2010 at 01:36 PM.
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