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07-08-2010, 10:50 AM   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
In an earlier thread, Pål insisted that EVIL is a P&S and does not affect DSLR sales.
The chart above says otherwise..

What I said was that DSLR sales are increasing. When you add a new type of camera that hasn't been there before you will always take marketshare. These numbers tell nothing until you include the P&S numbers.

07-08-2010, 11:05 AM   #17
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QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
Chart from Jan to June:




In an earlier thread, Pål insisted that EVIL is a P&S and does not affect DSLR sales.
The chart above says otherwise.

The red line is combined Canon+Nikon DSLR sales, while the yellow line is the combined mirrorless system sales. You can see how the rise of mirrorless system taking the market share away from Canon/Nikon!
No you can't. These are percentages, not absolute numbers. It might very well be C&N sold more DSLRS, but the market for mirrorless grew even faster.
07-08-2010, 11:56 AM   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by kevinschoenmakers Quote
No you can't. These are percentages, not absolute numbers. It might very well be C&N sold more DSLRS, but the market for mirrorless grew even faster.
But it does not matter, if your growth cannot keep up with the market segment, you would still be losing market share. These are the numbers that their share holders would look at (not only absolute numbers), and their share holders would not be happy if their market share continues to drop.
07-08-2010, 01:30 PM   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
But it does not matter, if your growth cannot keep up with the market segment, you would still be losing market share. These are the numbers that their share holders would look at (not only absolute numbers), and their share holders would not be happy if their market share continues to drop.
Not so. Lets for argument say that every mirrorless camera sold meant one less sold P&S and that not single DSLR sale were lost. And that the growth of the mirrorless cameras were larger than the growth of DSLR's. How would such a statistic look? Exactly like the one shown!
You cannot tell anything from these numbers except that mirrorless cameras have started to sell in significant quantities. I think it is no coincidence that the big ones in DSLR's are those who do not have a mirrorless system at present.

07-08-2010, 02:32 PM   #20
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Nikon is going to compete with Panasonic GH1

Nikon is going to compete with Panasonic GH1 very soon.

According to their President in Japan.

Something new and different gets all kinds of media attention.

Should be a fun Photokina 2010 for Nikon

I put the Evil Nikon info, links here:


https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/non-pentax-cameras-canon-nikon-etc/106975...pe-camera.html

QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
Not so. Lets for argument say that every mirrorless camera sold meant one less sold P&S and that not single DSLR sale were lost. And that the growth of the mirrorless cameras were larger than the growth of DSLR's. How would such a statistic look? Exactly like the one shown!
You cannot tell anything from these numbers except that mirrorless cameras have started to sell in significant quantities. I think it is no coincidence that the big ones in DSLR's are those who do not have a mirrorless system at present.
07-08-2010, 03:20 PM   #21
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
Not so. Lets for argument say that every mirrorless camera sold meant one less sold P&S and that not single DSLR sale were lost. And that the growth of the mirrorless cameras were larger than the growth of DSLR's. How would such a statistic look? Exactly like the one shown!
But it does not matter.
The fact is that all the industry reports and manufacturers' financial reports would lump all the interchangeable lenses systems together. And that's how the companies' performance would be judged by share holders. If your company cannot keep pace with the industry growth in the interchangeable lens systems camera and lose market share, the share holders would not be happy.

Anyways, I still cannot see how you can compare EVIL with P&S sales; I mean their price point is so far apart!

QuoteQuote:
You cannot tell anything from these numbers except that mirrorless cameras have started to sell in significant quantities. I think it is no coincidence that the big ones in DSLR's are those who do not have a mirrorless system at present.
As others have reported, Nikon has made it official. Why did they do this? To boost growth in their interchangeable lens camera sales! Their target: 80% growth in 3 years.
07-08-2010, 04:46 PM   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
But it does not matter.
The fact is that all the industry reports and manufacturers' financial reports would lump all the interchangeable lenses systems together. And that's how the companies' performance would be judged by share holders. If your company cannot keep pace with the industry growth in the interchangeable lens systems camera and lose market share, the share holders would not be happy.
Shareholders cares about the bottom line. Nothing else. Nobody is probably making money on EVIL so far and profit is probably going to be much harder in the future when competition hardens.
DSLR's are still considered the real cameras and hence it is here the biggest profit margins to be had.
07-08-2010, 04:49 PM   #23
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QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
Anyways, I still cannot see how you can compare EVIL with P&S sales; I mean their price point is so far apart!.
Of course you can; they are glorified P&S's. Just like the APS film SLR, that also sold briskly intially to the gadget hungry japanese until it flopped completely, it mostly steal customers from P&S. These people will eventually experience that they do not need interchangeable lenses anyway.

07-08-2010, 05:19 PM   #24
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Here is what I posted in the other thread:

So for the first 6 months of the year, interchangeable lens cameras market share:

Nikon 34.0% (2009, 31.3%)
Canon 31.4% (2009, 39.1%)
Panasonic 10.9% (2009, 8.7%)
Hoya (Pentax) 7.9% (2009, 6.4%)
Olympus 7.7% (2009, 6.6%)
Sony 7.5% (2009, 7.7%)

Taking into account the 35% increase in total interchangeable lens camera sales, these are the approximate sales increase for the first half of 2010 compared with all of 2009:

Nikon +47%
Canon +8%
Panasonic +69%
Hoya (Pentax) +65%
Olympus +58%
Sony +31%

It's clear that all six have increased sales. However, Canon is lagging behind, and has actually contibuted very little to these increases.
07-08-2010, 06:54 PM   #25
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
Shareholders cares about the bottom line. Nothing else. Nobody is probably making money on EVIL so far and profit is probably going to be much harder in the future when competition hardens.
DSLR's are still considered the real cameras and hence it is here the biggest profit margins to be had.
I wouldn't put it that way.

DSLR's have legacy sunk costs and established tech, especially drawing on the SLR lineage and in particular, with lens systems. The ROI is largely done. The reinvestment necessary has plateaued when looked at in a 10 year horizon.

EVIL requires entirely new investments, including large-scale marketing. It's not entirely sure how much market share or market growth a tube stuck on a cigarette box will garner. There are obvious limits to the technology. The lenses may simply not be good enough for many prosumers, so as second cameras, the secondary lens market reinvestment might simply not be there (most users stick wit the "kit lens").

That makes it easier for DSLR to compete on price, which is why I am seeing massive price drops on 2 year-old Canons and Nikons in stores. It's hard to fault a $250 Nikon D60, new, with 2 year warranty. What's to lose?

Sure Canikon will come out with their EVIL variants, as will Pentax, but there are other weapons in the arsenal.

Last edited by Aristophanes; 07-09-2010 at 05:31 AM.
07-08-2010, 08:45 PM   #26
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
Of course you can; they are glorified P&S's....These people will eventually experience that they do not need interchangeable lenses anyway.
But there is no direct competition from devices which cost 80-100+% more! The target buyers are simply not the same!
And I am glad that most of the manufacturers do not agree with you. Mirrorless system will be here to stay, and succeed in taking over the lower priced DSLR market segment.

QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
Nobody is probably making money on EVIL so far and profit is probably going to be much harder in the future when competition hardens.
DSLR's are still considered the real cameras and hence it is here the biggest profit margins to be had.
I disagree. EVIL has less mechanical components and lower manufacturing cost. It would drop further in the future with the elimination of mechanical shutter.
The "real cameras" opinion just reflect your film/digital SLR upbringing. The new generation would not make such distinction. As entry DSLRs are commoditized, the profit margin is no longer there. Dropping manufacturing cost, and bringing new style and form factor to bring in new customers are keys to keep the company healthy.
07-09-2010, 12:16 AM   #27
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
Nobody is probably making money on EVIL so far and profit is probably going to be much harder in the future when competition hardens.
DSLR's are still considered the real cameras and hence it is here the biggest profit margins to be had.
Olympus is making a significant profit margin from m4/3. Almost all of the technology found in the EP-1/EP-2 was first used in the E-620. Sensor, image processor, in-body IS. This was the reason Olympus dropped all development on standard 4/3 while it rolled out 3 consecutive m4/3 bodies and 4 new lenses. EP-2 sells for 2x the price of an E-620, and they cut cost on the mirror box and phase detect AF system.

People are willing to pay more for less (smaller & lighter)...... IQ is also questionable because the lenses that have been released are not very impressive.
07-09-2010, 04:04 AM   #28
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To me, people are using EVIL cameras to be one of two things 1) Point and Shoot replacements. They are a little less portable than point and shoots (particularly with zooms), but they offer better quality. 2) Second systems. Someone has a D700 or a 7D that they don't want to take with them everywhere, but at the same time they don't really want to shoot with a point and shoot. They add an EP-2. I just don't see many people choosing these cameras over SLRs for their primary system. It'll probably happen in time, but not yet.
07-09-2010, 05:48 AM   #29
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Yes, Canon is lagging behind, yet their profits tripled

Canon's doing badly while their profits tripled...

Bummer

I still don't understand why we get all excited about Japan only market numbers.

Whose got the global numbers ?

"

July 9 (Reuters) – Japan’s Canon Inc is likely to post a near three-fold jump in its group operating profit for the January-June period, boosted by better-than-expected sales of digital single-lens reflex cameras and laser printers, the Nikkei business daily reported.

The digital camera and office equipment maker’s group operating profit for the first half is expected to be up 180 percent at about 182 billion yen ($2.07 billion), the daily said.

Full-year sales are seen up 15 percent at around 1.7 trillion yen, helped by brisk demand for entry-level digital SLR cameras and strong sales in China, the daily said.

Renewed spending on information technology by clients helped the office equipment division, which struggled a year earlier, it said.

Canon’s gross profit margin likely returned to levels from before the financial crisis, the daily said.

For the full year ending in December, sales are forecast to rise 17 percent to about 3.75 trillion yen, with operating profit predicted to surge 66 percent to about 360 billion yen, the daily said.

Canon, which uses U.S. accounting standards, aims to absorb the blow of a weak euro through cost cuts and increased sales of highly profitable products, such as digital cameras, Nikkei said.

There are signs of a recovery in photolithography devices amid strong demand from LCD panel makers in China, the daily said. ($1=87.75 Yen) (Reporting by Shailesh Kuber in Bangalore; Editing by Gopakumar Warrier)

"





QuoteOriginally posted by dnas Quote
Here is what I posted in the other thread:

So for the first 6 months of the year, interchangeable lens cameras market share:

Nikon 34.0% (2009, 31.3%)
Canon 31.4% (2009, 39.1%)
Panasonic 10.9% (2009, 8.7%)
Hoya (Pentax) 7.9% (2009, 6.4%)
Olympus 7.7% (2009, 6.6%)
Sony 7.5% (2009, 7.7%)

Taking into account the 35% increase in total interchangeable lens camera sales, these are the approximate sales increase for the first half of 2010 compared with all of 2009:

Nikon +47%
Canon +8%
Panasonic +69%
Hoya (Pentax) +65%
Olympus +58%
Sony +31%

It's clear that all six have increased sales. However, Canon is lagging behind, and has actually contibuted very little to these increases.
07-09-2010, 06:00 AM   #30
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Any Japanese company will have seen increases in profits especially with higher sales in China.

This is FOREX. the $US has climbed, and the yuan is dollar fixed. the Yen has fallen a bit as well.

For the last quarter anything $US is doing quite well. Any sales returned in Euros is not.

Note the comment about "entry level DSLR sales". those super-cheap Canon Xsi's selling at US$275 are bolstering the bottom line coming out of factories already paid for 3x over.

That's how you maximize profit, not from new models in the marketplace.

QuoteOriginally posted by Samsungian Quote
Canon's doing badly while their profits tripled...

Bummer

I still don't understand why we get all excited about Japan only market numbers.

Whose got the global numbers ?

"

July 9 (Reuters) – Japan’s Canon Inc is likely to post a near three-fold jump in its group operating profit for the January-June period, boosted by better-than-expected sales of digital single-lens reflex cameras and laser printers, the Nikkei business daily reported.

The digital camera and office equipment maker’s group operating profit for the first half is expected to be up 180 percent at about 182 billion yen ($2.07 billion), the daily said.

Full-year sales are seen up 15 percent at around 1.7 trillion yen, helped by brisk demand for entry-level digital SLR cameras and strong sales in China, the daily said.

Renewed spending on information technology by clients helped the office equipment division, which struggled a year earlier, it said.

Canon’s gross profit margin likely returned to levels from before the financial crisis, the daily said.

For the full year ending in December, sales are forecast to rise 17 percent to about 3.75 trillion yen, with operating profit predicted to surge 66 percent to about 360 billion yen, the daily said.

Canon, which uses U.S. accounting standards, aims to absorb the blow of a weak euro through cost cuts and increased sales of highly profitable products, such as digital cameras, Nikkei said.

There are signs of a recovery in photolithography devices amid strong demand from LCD panel makers in China, the daily said. ($1=87.75 Yen) (Reporting by Shailesh Kuber in Bangalore; Editing by Gopakumar Warrier)

"
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