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07-26-2010, 09:20 AM   #151
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QuoteOriginally posted by Zebooka Quote
In EVIL category lots of new comers will by Pentax cause they have no idea what system to choose and they have no background and lenses.
Right... Of course they will buy the well-known brands because the newcomers already know those brands through advertising. Who on earth is Pentax...?

QuoteQuote:
In FF category only advanced experienced amateurs will come.
Like that's a bad situation?

QuoteQuote:
FF is cool, but if Pentax doesn't produce EVIL - it will loose low end segment and eventually die. Or become the smallest player on the ring. Or both.
I think Pentax knows better than us what to do... Especially in this day and age.

07-26-2010, 09:59 AM   #152
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I think you are wrong Ashiflex. Most people are careful with how they spend their money. They read on the internet and in magazines when they are buying. And I think most people buys what get best test results for the money. In most photo magazines I know there are atleast one test comparing the known brands in one or another way, mostly in the amateur segment.

Pentax may have a reputation as a brand that makes cameras below competition, but that's probably because they have read it somewhere, and it's true that Pentax has been lagging behind.

I think everybody knows Pentax, everyone above 20 atleast. But most young people knows Pentax as some obscure leftover from the past which now makes the worst crap compact cameras. I think they are staying away from Pentax because of the reputation they have got in the crowd that's going to upgrade form compact cameras, hopefully k-x has started to change that.
07-26-2010, 10:11 AM   #153
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
The EVIL market at 40% share (guess) might represent the exact same profit margins as the FF market at 2% share.
Would you rather a profit of $600 per unit on 5,000 units, or $60 per unit on 50,000 per unit.
Using your example of 40% vs 2%, then the comparison would be $600 x 5,000 vs $60 x 100,000.... But I think the difference is even more than this - profit margin for mirrorless is still quite good at this point, probably more so than K-x at current price; and profit margin of FF would be a lot less as user in this forum is demanding a "cheap" Pentax FF.

QuoteQuote:
And it doesn't matter. The cost of an FF sensor will eventually be as cost-effective as an M43 sensor. At that point, FF cleans up.
I don't think that would happen within the next 5 to 6 years.
07-26-2010, 10:19 AM   #154
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QuoteOriginally posted by fikkser Quote
I think you are wrong Ashiflex. Most people are careful with how they spend their money. They read on the internet and in magazines when they are buying. And I think most people buys what get best test results for the money. In most photo magazines I know there are atleast one test comparing the known brands in one or another way, mostly in the amateur segment.
I'm not wrong... There are indeed many people who do their homework first and buy the best camera for the money, but for each such person there's 99 persons who don't and buy the camera made by the well-known brand. I don't think this will be any different in the EVIL market. Why I am right? Look at the K-x, a whole lot of camera for little money, yet the more expensive cameras from the well-known brands sell better despite a worse build and worse specs.

Pentax won't stand a chance in the EVIL market unless they spend millions of dollars in advertising.

Or... They could sell FF cameras at a premium, to buyers who know what they are doing. At a limited advertising budget; the camera will sell almost all by itself. A connoisseur camera does not need advertising. Just like Pentax will not spend lots of money advertising the 645D.

QuoteQuote:
Pentax may have a reputation as a brand that makes cameras below competition, but that's probably because they have read it somewhere, and it's true that Pentax has been lagging behind.
Pentax never failed to serve me extremely good bodies with exactly the specs I wanted. Strange, when I handle the Canon 7D I had the thought that Canon was lagging behind because my K-7 is better built and has better ergonomics, and more features I needed.

Remember: speed of a camera is not on position #1 on each and every photographer's list of essential features. So Pentax may be lagging behind on some features, but it is also true that Canon and Nikon are lagging behind Pentax.

QuoteQuote:
I think everybody knows Pentax, everyone above 20 atleast. But most young people knows Pentax as some obscure leftover from the past which now makes the worst crap compact cameras. I think they are staying away from Pentax because of the reputation they have got in the crowd that's going to upgrade form compact cameras, hopefully k-x has started to change that.
I'm with you on this 100%. Pentax never had any compact camera which impressed me, but then it would be hard to impress this old-school guy with a superb DSLR

07-26-2010, 10:23 AM   #155
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QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
Using your example of 40% vs 2%, then the comparison would be $600 x 5,000 vs $60 x 100,000.... But I think the difference is even more than this - profit margin for mirrorless is still quite good at this point, probably more so than K-x at current price; and profit margin of FF would be a lot less as user in this forum is demanding a "cheap" Pentax FF.
Pentax is moving upmarket, away from the whiners who want Pentax to stay the "cheap but good" brand. For them they have invented the Canon & Nikon market where they can be part of the masses

Personally I hope the Pentax FF will be so good and so expensive that the whiners can only whine about its price and nothing else
07-26-2010, 11:33 AM   #156
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QuoteOriginally posted by Asahiflex Quote
Pentax is moving upmarket, away from the whiners who want Pentax to stay the "cheap but good" brand.
Not with the K-x they're not. And the Optio line is closer to budget price than high-end. I see Pentax as having no better QC or design Q than any other brand. They just emphasize different aspects (ergonomic size, DA primes). Right now all the brands are active in the low-end. All of them. Few in the high-end. Pentax is trying to "bracket" the market with the 645D, but for an optics maker the require a fairly robust market base to make a go of it. This is especially true of their DSLR line's relatively slim zoom offerings.
07-26-2010, 12:37 PM   #157
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Not with the K-x they're not. And the Optio line is closer to budget price than high-end.
Indeed, but after that there's nothing for those on a budget. So the K-x with kit lenses is all you can get if you're a budget-oriented DSLR customer. The rest is for the more wealthy amateur.
07-26-2010, 12:41 PM   #158
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QuoteOriginally posted by Asahiflex Quote
Right... Of course they will buy the well-known brands because the newcomers already know those brands through advertising. Who on earth is Pentax...?
....
Pentax won't stand a chance in the EVIL market unless they spend millions of dollars in advertising.
Olympus is not an exactly household name either, and they are doing quite well with their EVIL.

Ironically, now is the best time for Pentax to make a foothold in the mirrorless market, as the big two have not joined yet. And if Nikon come up with a tiny sensor mirrorless as rumored, Pentax has a chance to trump it with IQ, if not the size. Canon looks like it would be at least a year away. So Pentax has their best chance of riding this EVIL wave without stretching their advertising budget. But unfortunately, it looks like it will be missing the boat.

07-26-2010, 02:12 PM   #159
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QuoteOriginally posted by Asahiflex Quote
Indeed, but after that there's nothing for those on a budget. So the K-x with kit lenses is all you can get if you're a budget-oriented DSLR customer. The rest is for the more wealthy amateur.
That doesn't really stack up, Asahiflex. Wealthy amateurs are quite likely to go for full frame and so move away from Pentax and chances are that they will soon be able to do so for less money if Canonikon FF prices come down.

A better argument perhaps (imho) is that Pentax retain some high-end products - the 645D system, the FA Limited lenses - as flagship items to add lustre to their main business in the mass market. With those items Pentax remains a classic name making optics of legendary quality; without them, they are just another electronics company. You could almost look on the high-end stuff as a marketing overhead. I realize this is an exaggeration as of today, but we don't know Hoya's intentions. Come back in a few years and it might be a fact.

Last edited by mecrox; 07-26-2010 at 02:15 PM. Reason: typos
07-26-2010, 02:14 PM   #160
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QuoteOriginally posted by C.W Tsorotes Quote
k-y

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that, whatever they release, it ain't gonna be called K-y. If it is, I'm selling all my gear because there is finally conclusive proof that the Pentax marketing department is run by chimpanzees. And not very SMART chimps, at that.

Will
07-26-2010, 02:34 PM   #161
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It'll be called K-2. FF will be L-x.

Or they'll wait to call the FF K-2 and call this one K-Me and build an ad campaign around "A camera for ME."
07-26-2010, 03:58 PM   #162
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How about K-9, the camera for people who love dogs?

Will

P.S. #1. Apologies if somebody has already made this lame joke.

P.S. #2. I'm tempted to suggest K-KK, the camera for people who are REALLY worried about white balance, but I won't, for fear somebody will find it offensive. You never know these days.
07-26-2010, 04:18 PM   #163
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QuoteOriginally posted by WMBP Quote
How about K-9, the camera for people who love dogs?
"K-9" was reportedly the name planned for what was ultimately called the K-7. The name changed was strongly recommended by Pentax USA, if I recall correctly. Or at least, that's what was reported by John Carlson of Pentax USA shortly after the K-7 launch last year.
07-26-2010, 07:22 PM   #164
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
The EVIL market at 40% share (guess) might represent the exact same profit margins as the FF market at 2% share.

Would you rather a profit of $600 per unit on 5,000 units, or $60 per unit on 50,000 per unit.

Which one is going to have the higher marketing and distribution costs? Which one is most susceptible to consumer whim and broad market downturns?

And it doesn't matter. The cost of an FF sensor will eventually be as cost-effective as an M43 sensor. At that point, FF cleans up.
Hmm, I didn't know the profit for FF was so good. That's interesting.

Don't know anyone has post this here yet, but I'd link it here anyway:

Sony Sensor Shakeup?

July 26 (commentary)--I've heard from multiple sources now that Sony Semiconductor is about to drop FX sensors from their lineup. What I'm hearing is that high management in Sony is saying that full-frame cameras and sensors aren't bringing the payback necessary to make them long-term profitable. This is essentially forcing Sony Imaging to consider dropping future plans for full-frame cameras (A850, A900, and follow-ups), though I'm sure we'll still see some FF products from them that were already in progress before the stream of sensors dies out.
... ...
07-26-2010, 07:26 PM   #165
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QuoteOriginally posted by Asahiflex Quote
Indeed, but after that there's nothing for those on a budget. So the K-x with kit lenses is all you can get if you're a budget-oriented DSLR customer. The rest is for the more wealthy amateur.
Pentax is missing a model in the middle, no doubt about it. I've screamed this since theK-x came out without shiny AF points (and someone even sent me a free K-x to shut me up!). nice cam. needs more to compete. A little more would fetch a lot more pricing power and profits.

Problem is, the K-7 may be that model. I have seen it on sale price the same as a Ti2, the latter with kit lens, but the K-7 kit lens is, well, a kit lens.

It's what's above he K-7 that is more worrisome. I do not see a $1,400 Pentax "pro" or other model able to stick in this market without it being FF. Not for investing in DA glass for the next decade. If you have $8,000 to spend on this hobby, you can get a D700 and 3 top lenses plus a stellar flash. The Nikon 24-70 on FF versus the FA 43 + 31 is less expensive and more versatile a system (but a requires a half-ton truck, still, if you have that $8,000......you're a serious photog). This leaves Pentax with the "go smaller" philosophy which benefitted them and Oly well, but this is not exclusive to Pentax.

Pentax doesn't really do well once you scale up an APS-C kit and lens package. In Nikonland, even a move to the D300 gets you quite the ride and the option of FF at some later date. Canon even has the APS-H intermediary and lens choices galore. You can go small with them and go big, or go home. Your choice. Pentax's next step up is the non-campatible MF 645D.

Where does Pentax compete if their prices start falling in the current K-7 territory? A really cheap K-7 with the K-x sensor? That's commodity pricing at 5% market share. That's brand death, exactly like what happened to Minolta.
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