[youky63]

For the millionth time - FF is unavoidably bigger and heavier. Often significantly so. Most people don't want bigger and heavier. See sales of 7D for evidence.

What is the problem with 7D? It sell pretty well. And bring much more money than Kiss X4/550D/T2i (depending where you live) to Canon even if they use the same sensor. First because it is much more expensive, and then because people buying 7D are also the ones buying expensive lenses.
Then, why to talk about 7D when you try to explain people want small bodies? 7D is as big as 5DMkII! Actually they share the same body.
Avout Sony's NEX system, I think they kept a FF capability it case NEX is a big success. Then, they could think to stop their actual line up of DSLR (A mount) and just switch all their new camera to a popular new system: NEX. Of course not next year, but maybe within 4 or 5 years. And then when they will decide to design High Grade NEX camera, they can take FF sensors, but of course body would also be bigger (to fit nice into the hand).
I think NEX system is a very strategic move from Sony. Their actual products are not popular, so they just try to find another way to become #2. (PS: or not )

[Groucho]

What is the problem with 7D? It sell pretty well.

That's my point, it does quite well offering most of the features of their FF cameras in an APS body. Yes, it's relatively big but part of that is because we're used to the diminutive K-7. It's not that much different than the D300 (maybe even smaller, don't remember off the top of my head.)

I think NEX system is a very strategic move from Sony. Their actual products are not popular, so they just try to find another way to become #2. (PS: or not )

I don't disagree. I think the NEX has the potential to be very successful - I would certainly choose it in a heartbeat over the m4/3rds cameras - and, sorry to say, the Samsung NX, also.

[youky63]

That's my point, it does quite well offering most of the features of their FF cameras in an APS body. Yes, it's relatively big but part of that is because we're used to the diminutive K-7. It's not that much different than the D300 (maybe even smaller, don't remember off the top of my head.)

I don't know the size of D300 compared to 7D (approximately the same I guess, never compared directly), but 7D is really the same size than the FF body of 5DMkII. I even played with them this afternoon (and a working 645D! Big but "light" with the 55mm SDM, and easy control access, almost like my K20D)

I don't disagree. I think the NEX has the potential to be very successful - I would certainly choose it in a heartbeat over the m4/3rds cameras - and, sorry to say, the Samsung NX, also.

Oh, I got a question about Samsung NX system: I live in Japan where there is no Samsung products, so I don't have a clear view about the success of these cameras. You people living in US or Europe (or wherever else), do you know if Samsung NX sells well? Thanks.

[Eigengrau]

BLAH BLAH BLAH.
For the millionth time - FF is unavoidably bigger and heavier. Often significantly so. Most people don't want bigger and heavier. See sales of 7D for evidence.

Bigger and heavier, but how much so? Honestly, the only place that I really see size MUST increase is in the viewfinder - everywhere else can benefit from the constant miniaturization of modern electronics. And, you are committing the same error that you accuse everybody else of: assuming that smaller and lighter is what everybody wants. I personally wouldn't want an SLR any smaller than the K-7, as it is right on the edge of usability right now.

At any rate, though, the argument really doesn't involve what people do or don't want, as that changes based on what is available and what is marketed. The argument is based almost purely on what technology developments will do to the market, and when everybody starts selling $1000 FF cameras, it is going to be tough to sell $1000 APS-C cameras. APS-C will become the budget SLR, and significant profit margins will only be found on FF.

As well, if you don't think that consumers care about DOF control, just look at how Sony is marketing their new NEX-based video camera. This is precisely the advantage that Sony is using to market their new system. You claim that consumers don't care about sensor size, but Sony is showing us different right now.

People already know, subconsciously, that a cheap disposable cam and their fixed-focus cell phone camera give them lots of detail. They also know, without realizing it, that pro pictures look different, and they've already come to associate a razor-thin DOF with high end photography and videography thanks to Hollywood and others. If you don't think a larger sensor can be marketed effectively to the masses, then obviously you underestimate the enormous (and sometimes scary) power that advertising can wield.

[uccemebug]

First good luck on your new venture.

Thank you!!

Also, i have posted this already, but really I appreciate the direction people have taken the topic...I think it's relevant to all of us and helps to look at business from different perspectives even if they are not your idea of right or wrong...it is all only opinion in the end, if it were not we would never have economic problems or booms it would all be flat as everyone would be doing the right thing every time out.

I'll second that. Further to questions of camera clubs, I think this forum *is* my camera club. 8^)

Fact is there are not that many people using camera and more interesting is the numbers are even, neither camera appears to be more popular or prevalent. So, the idea that the better IQ trumps the better over all feature set is kinda killed off right there within HoyaTax's own house...at least that is how I see the issue.

More on this below (tethered camera idea).

Personally I had HUGE medical bills this year so far which will just keep getting higher or if I am lucky it won't matter, I also had two family members who died and I had to pay their final expenses and in betweent he deaths I had a rat bastard drunk bash in the front of my vehicle as it dared sit in my driveway...plus had to change my own business to adapt the the same market conditions you describe...

I'm sorry to read of your problems. I wish you well and hope that the worst of it is past (though by RA I think you mean arthritis and I've observed that to be a gift that just keeps giving).

Imagine a FF mirrorless where there was no rear LCD or VF at all. It simply tethered to your smartphone and used its superior screen. Or iPad. If you cut certain costs out, you can up the sensor size to maintain price point parity. Many pro shooters already tether to laptops exclusively. There's lots of ways to skin the cat, but at a certain point, the only way to advance the industry IQ premise will be to go to a larger sensor.

My business partner and I were discussing this very idea last night, but looked at it slightly differently. First, some quick observations on what's been happening with the camera manufacturers, phone manufacturers, and their products:
1. "do one thing" p&s cameras are losing out to cameras in phones because the latter do everything the former do and the former don't add enough value to make it worthwhile carrying them
2. tethering to a laptop indicates the mentality of some of the users, and indicates that there's plenty of room for improvement in the way that the camera manufacturers have been thinking about their products (user interface in particular)
3. Canon recently got into a joint venture R&D program with Toshiba to build displays; they seem willing to complement their product lines
4. smart phones are becoming the personal computer for a surprising number of people, you and old, in Japan
5. Apple makes more profit on their phones than practically all of their competitors combined
6. DSLR manufacturers right now are asking their buyers to adapt their way of taking photos to the form of the camera; this is in reverse to one of the quiet strengths of film SLRs, which was that they offered more-than-competent results and an interface that once learned could be effectively transfered to practically any other SLR
7. Sony and Panasonic have tried building cameras the way they've traditionally been built and have more or less failed; they then turned around and built products that matched their over-all electronics-products designs and are finding success
8. Japan has the world's largest reserves of the stored rare earth metals used in phones because the consumers here don't want to give up the old phones that hold their photos (and contacts) .. because they don't have a computer to which to transfer the data
9. a friend who works in Sony's camera unit has hinted (if I read him right) that it's Sony's APS-C product line that's going away, not the FF line

Pulling all of these things together, I'll summarize by saying that I believe that the smart phone (and possibly the iPad) and its outstanding micro-computing platform is going to become the conduit for photography. There is already an application on the newest iPhone that allows you to edit video-not just cropping but applying treatments and moving clips around etc. Something like Lightroom on the smartphone could well become the platform against which the camera manufacturers have to target their output. It doesn't ask that you tie photography to a computer even as bulky as a laptop, and it otherwise provides enough computing power, connectivity, and storage to do everything else a laptop does.

Here are some sample solutions that could come from this:
a. real-time use of the smartphone with a small but competent display of what the camera sees (perhaps transmitted via bluetooth)
b. automated transfer of photos to flickr/facebook/getty/email/print lab
c. long-term storage of photos on the phone
d. improved cameras as a clip-on module for your phone
e. camera-phone grade device that clip onto your glasses or ride on your thumb on a ring and are controlled by your phone
f. real-time relaying of an image/video to any destination in the world
g. smart-phone as remote trigger
h. DSLR's that are truly programmable via a sophisticated interface on the phone .. all of the customized wheels and buttons, the currently downloaded corrections for certain lenses, the post processing effects popularized by the current crop of EVIL's and by Lightroom plugins like SilverFast ... and everything else that people will imagine
i. smartphone as coordinator for strobes-not just shutter release but programming the strength of each strobe .. all wirelessly

I suspect that in three years or so, the top camera manufacturers (excluding the imaging devices in smartphones) will be Canon, Sony, and Panasonic. And that the products they'll be selling will look more like consumer electronics than they will cameras. In such an (altered) market, the only place for the others will be in highly specified niches that those three can't do better.

I actually think Pentax has a good future in such a market, because they're already demonstrating some good thinking with their recent product releases. Each product has a clear niche and doesn't try to either "do everything" or compete with the current market leaders to the exclusion of all else. But Pentax has to take it a lot further. Anything that provides an obstacle for taking photos and fails to "connect" has a very limited life going forward, and shouldn't attract any more investment.
+ no more dumb p&s cameras
+ no more grudgingly programmable DSLR's
+ no more products that smack of "me too" in any sense

Pentax can become relevant again by building the cameras that work with the creative conduit I describe above. Appeal to the market with products that work with the smartphones that their buyers already have.

It's obvious that the "good enough" cameras in the smart phones themselves will always have a place. But if there is a product line that encourages smartphone users to take their interest in photos a step further by integrating seamlessly, they could turn a significant portion of the smartphone-owning market into avid fans.

[24X36NOW]

That's my point, it does quite well offering most of the features of their FF cameras in an APS body. Yes, it's relatively big but part of that is because we're used to the diminutive K-7. It's not that much different than the D300 (maybe even smaller, don't remember off the top of my head.)

The EOS 7D is not only about the same size as the FF EOS 5D, it's actually heavier. The D300 is similarly about the same size as the FF D700. So much for how much "bigger and heavier" the cameras have to be/need to be because of a Ff sensor as opposed to an APS-C sensor. The only thing that must grow is the prism, and that comes with a bonus in the form of a viewfinder that doesn't suck.

[Aristophanes]

Bigger and heavier, but how much so? Honestly, the only place that I really see size MUST increase is in the viewfinder - everywhere else can benefit from the constant miniaturization of modern electronics. And, you are committing the same error that you accuse everybody else of: assuming that smaller and lighter is what everybody wants. I personally wouldn't want an SLR any smaller than the K-7, as it is right on the edge of usability right now.

8 years ago the most popular cell phone was a clamshell design or a mini-brick.

Today it's a 2x larger smartphone. Size is but a measure, and it's relative. The Pentax Auto 110 was considered a revelation and an amazing piece of engineering and focus (it was let down by the lousy 110 film at higher ISO's).

But many considered it too small, fiddly, difficult to hold, etc. SO is but one measure, and is relative. The market has standards, but lots os space to get there.

[nosnoop]

Nonsense. Utter nonsense. Consumers were NOT writing letter to Canon CEO saying "More megapixels please." Manufacturers could get the per unit cost down and simply marketed under the ancient mantra "more is better".
FF is more sensor area. Same logic, Identical marketing campaign.

I have no idea where your letter-to-CEO statement comes from - nonsense indeed, but not from me.
The increase in mega pixel and increase in zoom range features were implemented for new camera models at the same price point / level as the cameras they replaced.

FF is totally different; you are asking users to pay a premium over APS-C. Not only the consumers have to get the message from the marketing campaign, they have to be convinced that the extra price premium is worth it.

If you build it, they will come.

Talk about nonsense.
Contrary to your belief, Sony FF did not sell well at all. It was pretty disastrous and dismal. At least, their lower end them pushed them to #3 market share back in 2008 before it nosedived, Their FF never quite got the traction.

No. I know economics and marketing.....
I'm not God, but I know deus ex machina.

More like grandiose delusion to me

[Asahiflex]

FF is totally different; you are asking users to pay a premium over APS-C. Not only the consumers have to get the message from the marketing campaign, they have to be convinced that the extra price premium is worth it.

I don't know where you get the "consumer" part from. A FF model is targeted to the knowledgeable user. Those don't need to be convinced at all, just like a Leicaphile does not need to be convinced that he wants a M9.

[nosnoop]

I don't know where you get the "consumer" part from. A FF model is targeted to the knowledgeable user. Those don't need to be convinced at all, just like a Leicaphile does not need to be convinced that he wants a M9.

You are exactly right, and I totally agree with you.
The post was in response to Aristophanes' claim that FF would take over the current APS-C market, and consumers would all be happily buying up the FF cameras in the next few years, with the demise of APS-C.

[eigelb]

Sony to release full frame DSLR in early2011. Possible sensors: a new ExmorHD 24MP and ExmorHD 30+MP :

sonyalpharumors | Home

I hope Nikon is producing there own sensors now and Pentax may take the part of nikon and gets exclusive FF sensors.

[youky63]

Sony to release full frame DSLR in early2011. Possible sensors: a new ExmorHD 24MP and ExmorHD 30+MP :

sonyalpharumors | Home

I hope Nikon is producing there own sensors now and Pentax may take the part of nikon and gets exclusive FF sensors.

If Pentax release an EVIL camera for Photokina as highly suggested here since a few days, there will be no FF camera before many years.
Priority will be on small format, to create a full line up of new lenses. Maybe even m4/3, it would be the best way for Pentax to sell much more glasses and get a lot of cash.

[nosnoop]

If Pentax release an EVIL camera for Photokina as highly suggested here since a few days,...

Really? My impression was that there will be no EVIL for Photokina.
Some in the know are hinting a mystery model between K-x and K-7; and another above K-7.... nothing about EVIL.

Maybe even m4/3, it would be the best way for Pentax to sell much more glasses and get a lot of cash.

I think there is very little chance of this happening. Those patents don't mean much.

[lol101]

If Pentax release an EVIL camera for Photokina as highly suggested here since a few days, there will be no FF camera before many years.
Priority will be on small format, to create a full line up of new lenses. Maybe even m4/3, it would be the best way for Pentax to sell much more glasses and get a lot of cash.

My guess for Photokina? (OK, nobody asked but I' gonna tell ya anyway! )

No FF AND no EVIL camera.

Two upgrades to the existing line of APS-C DSLRs (K-x and K-7) with newer Sony sensors.

No revolution, just good business.

2011? mmmmhhh... let me wipe the pizza crumbs from my crystal ball... (...) , nope! still no FF (no clear view on the profitability of building a D-FA lens lineup + the other guys already have the market well in hands) & still no EVIL (no clear view on the profitability of building a µDA lens lineup + the other guys already have the market well in hands - wait, am I repeating myself? ).

For 2011, what would you think of a few DA WR lenses - maybe even re-issue the DA Limiteds in WR finish...? Wouldn't that be good business (although not revolutionary...)?

See you @ Photokina 2012!

[Christopher M.W.T]

My guess for Photokina? (OK, nobody asked but I' gonna tell ya anyway! )

No FF AND no EVIL camera.

Two upgrades to the existing line of APS-C DSLRs (K-x and K-7) with newer Sony sensors.

No revolution, just good business.

2011? mmmmhhh... let me wipe the pizza crumbs from my crystal ball... (...) , nope! still no FF (no clear view on the profitability of building a D-FA lens lineup + the other guys already have the market well in hands) & still no EVIL (no clear view on the profitability of building a µDA lens lineup + the other guys already have the market well in hands - wait, am I repeating myself? ).

For 2011, what would you think of a few DA WR lenses - maybe even re-issue the DA Limiteds in WR finish...? Wouldn't that be good business (although not revolutionary...)?

See you @ Photokina 2012!

Based on my very reliable sources that is pretty much what is happening. No one has been able to shine any light on Evil for me so it's just purely speculation.

The new K-5 should/will hopefully be the answer to the K-7's flaws and build upon its strengths, good thing is Pentax have dumped Samung sensors

Sadly I dont know anything worthwhile about accessories and no one else seems to either, was hoping for a WR flash but doesn't look like that's coming.....but then again apparently Hoya/Pentax are REALLY hard at plugging leaks so any info that gets out is a bonus.

There was a few things that Simon Smyth was on the money about though.

As for 2012, all the big companies know the world is coming to an end so no one's really bothering about 2012 and beyond.