Originally posted by Aristophanes They will. the cost difference for larger sensor production will fall to "close enough" levels for FF to push APS-C out of the market.
They will buy FF cameras because APS-C will no longer cost-effective to produce.
....
Because someone will come out with $1,500 FF, slimmed of pro features, and make every APS-C camera over $1,000 not cost-effective. After that event, every model at the K-7 level will be FF.
I agree with northcoastgreg. This ain't going to happen.
First $500 is a big difference; not every potential K-7 buyer would be willing to shell out an extra 50% to get a FF - plus replacing all the glasses they own.
And I don't think Canikon would be willing to give up the golden goose any time soon.
Quote: Both of you make the grievous error that this is something to do with current market demand for FF, bound by the false notion that technology is static as a result....
Again, the silliness of basing future sales off current sales is profound. If that were the case, no one would have made Micro 4/3! By your logic, there was no demand, so they should not have made it. Now we have a parallel thread talking up how this new development is taking market share.
It would be equally silly to ignore current sales. We never said the current status represents future sales - but current sales, and more importantly, current trend can gives clues to sales in the foreseeable future. And apart from you, no one else can predict the future
, so there is no guarantee; and obviously, no one can predict (also except you) the launch of any new/revolutionary/game changing products 4 or 5 years from now.
Contrary to what you said, my prediction fully takes into account of technology progress, especially in the quality and price of APS-C, that makes it even harder to convince people to pay extra for FF (not a problem for enthusiasts obviously, it is the general consumer we are talking about).
In the end, the DSLR arena is getting smaller by the day, and mirrorless would gradually take a huge bite. The demand for smaller and more compact system would ensure other sensors size would also dominate over FF in mirrorless except in the top niche.