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09-23-2010, 07:36 AM   #151
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Wrong question. Question is if it can be made cheap enough which I heavily doubt.
Hmm. When you consider the mechanisms included in current P&S cameras, I'm not so sure about that. Wouldn't it be a pretty simple construction compared to all the stuff included in typical cameras today (retractable zoom lenses with quite fast power zoom and AF - and optical shake reduction too! - when I think of all the tiny movable parts in my wife's tiny Panazonic ZX1 I'm amazed that it actually survives being carried around )

09-23-2010, 08:30 AM   #152
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QuoteOriginally posted by gazonk Quote
Hmm. When you consider the mechanisms included in current P&S cameras, I'm not so sure about that. Wouldn't it be a pretty simple construction compared to all the stuff included in typical cameras today (retractable zoom lenses with quite fast power zoom and AF - and optical shake reduction too! - when I think of all the tiny movable parts in my wife's tiny Panazonic ZX1 I'm amazed that it actually survives being carried around )
I am still rather worried it be too expensive.

Unlike a fixed P&S lens where all forces and tolerances are known and can be optimized for a given price, a retractable K-mount would have to withstand considerable forces and still live on tight tolerances. Think of that FA*300 which has no own tripod mount to be held by the EVIL body ...
09-23-2010, 10:25 AM   #153
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for me the most exciting thing is the fuji
rangefinders have never really been a penatx thing, but make this with interchangeable lenses and it could dominate the higher end evil market, maybe that's how pentax planned to have something that was different from the pack (too bad fuji beat them halfway there. on the flip side fuji hasn't even finalised production yet so maybe a fuji pentax venture is on the horizon...
09-23-2010, 05:43 PM   #154
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It seems that things are beginning to change rapidly in this market. At last. I'm very glad.

BTW, Falk I'd posted some questions on your thoughts on the Fuji earlier in this thread... Did you have a chance to play with it to evaluate its construction and finish?

09-23-2010, 06:03 PM   #155
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QuoteOriginally posted by nosnoop Quote
A pretty disappointing Photokina as far as mirrorless systems are concerned. We don't even have prototypes to show for....
The silence from Canon and Nikon is deafening. That says something.

Let's keep in mind that the mirrorless market share burst could be just that, a burst that fades down to a smaller niche than some currently expect. Certainly Sony's pellicle systems are more DSLR than mirrorless and at price point compete directly with NEX. I've always maintained its less about the mirror package and form factor size than the VF and the interface for viewing and framing the subject matter. Demonstrably and surprisingly, Sony thinks so too. Those who say that mirrorless will dominate the market are not seeing what Canon, Nikon, and Sony are seeing (and Pentax).

"Tweener systems have historically had a long term rough go of it, especially with interchangeable lens systems. The Pentax 110 is an example. I suspect M43 will be another. Case in point is Fuji's RF attempt which is certainly the talk of the show across all brand loyalists and demonstrates that a fixed lens, digital RF has appeal so long as the historical photographic VF interface experience is respected. It's no 'tweener trying to be a MILC. It is what it is and it's turning heads. I think Pentax is very wise to sit tight and come to market when they see the other guy's wares and at what price. It's cheaper to run a skunkworks and keep people guessing than it is to ramp up a "maybe it will work" product.
09-23-2010, 06:19 PM   #156
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I think there's probably some truth in rumor that Canon is looking at releasing a mirrorless next year. I can see them doing it before Nikon. And the Panasonic's GH1 and GH2 look like a DSLR as does the Samsung I think it's NX 10. The Olympus has got a EVF and the Samsung NX 100 (?) is kind of a Olympus copy. The NEX is the one that is a bit unusual. I wouldn't want one, but apparently they are selling well. Whatever floats the boat of the person spending their money on it.

If you sat the Panasonic down next to a say KX and asked someone who doesn't know about cameras what the difference was they wouldn't be able to tell you.

BTW- That's a lot of mirrorless cameras being released in the last year. I think it's probably more than a passing fad. Olympus is already planning on upgrading the E-P line next year and that GH2 looks to be a winner. The nice thing about that format is I can use Panasonic or Olympus lenses without having a stupid adapter. I'm not sure they are big in America but I think they do very well in Europe and Japan. If you do who cares about America. You don't have to be Canon or Nikon to sell cameras.

The Sony A55 is very interesting. I'm really tempted on that one. I've shot an A900 and it was a nice camera.
09-23-2010, 07:32 PM   #157
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
The silence from Canon and Nikon is deafening. That says something.

Let's keep in mind that the mirrorless market share burst could be just that, a burst that fades down to a smaller niche than some currently expect. Certainly Sony's pellicle systems are more DSLR than mirrorless and at price point compete directly with NEX. I've always maintained its less about the mirror package and form factor size than the VF and the interface for viewing and framing the subject matter. Demonstrably and surprisingly, Sony thinks so too. Those who say that mirrorless will dominate the market are not seeing what Canon, Nikon, and Sony are seeing (and Pentax).

"Tweener systems have historically had a long term rough go of it, especially with interchangeable lens systems. The Pentax 110 is an example. I suspect M43 will be another. Case in point is Fuji's RF attempt which is certainly the talk of the show across all brand loyalists and demonstrates that a fixed lens, digital RF has appeal so long as the historical photographic VF interface experience is respected. It's no 'tweener trying to be a MILC. It is what it is and it's turning heads. I think Pentax is very wise to sit tight and come to market when they see the other guy's wares and at what price. It's cheaper to run a skunkworks and keep people guessing than it is to ramp up a "maybe it will work" product.
You have a good point about Canon/Nikon being very quiet.
Makes me believe they will soon drop a bomb on the photography world!

JP
09-23-2010, 08:14 PM   #158
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
I've always maintained its less about the mirror package and form factor size than the VF and the interface for viewing and framing the subject matter. Demonstrably and surprisingly, Sony thinks so too. Those who say that mirrorless will dominate the market are not seeing what Canon, Nikon, and Sony are seeing (and Pentax).
Sony's SLT is just a stop gap solution to a problem which will not exist in a few years time. And Sony is hedging their bets in every possible area... their R&D budget has to be pretty impressive. It would be interesting to see what Canon & Nikon would come up; and whether they would elect to go the small sensor route for their mirrorless.

09-23-2010, 10:25 PM   #159
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QuoteOriginally posted by jpzk Quote
You have a good point about Canon/Nikon being very quiet.
Makes me believe they will soon drop a bomb on the photography world!

JP
IMO, no. It's classic market dynamics. Canikon own the lion' share of the market, which they continue to maintain with a steady stream of incremental updates to existing technologies and form factors. It's not a static system so they need to keep resources applied to this continual improvement. To take resources away to focus on an EVIL is a risk. They won't take that risk until they are certain that the potential benefit is worth the risk. And the only way for that to happen is for someone else - Panasonic, Olympus, Sony, Samsung, et. al. - to prove that there is a sustainable market for EVIL cameras.

One of the above mentioned needs a breakout hit among the broad consumer market - not just a desirable, expensive second camera for the much smaller enthusiast market - in order for Nikon or Canon to respond in kind. The other risk that they face is responding too slowly to the shift, so it makes sense for them to feint once in a while and suggest that they are ready to enter the space.

My $.02, non-refundable...
09-24-2010, 12:03 AM   #160
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In some years time, it's obvious that the SLR will become obsolete. There's no point in trying to move a mirror when shooting at 60 fps, and EVFs will have become good enough for those (including me) who think that the real OVF still is superior (I'm curious about the GH2 viewfinder, though). Those who play their cards right now, will be the winners then.

What will the winners do? First, I think it's obvious that a move to a shorter register distance is necessary, simply because you then can make simpler and better wide angles. Those who combine new mounts with legacy glass compatibility in the best way will have a very good position (I don't rule out Falk's KEVIL solution, though, may also work).

Second, I think the market may divide into at least two classes of formats. FF or MF is simply too large to make compact zooms, so travel-friendly and consumer-friendly interchangeable-lens cameras will have to use smaller formats, maybe also smaller than m4/3, while the pros may want to use larger cameras.

For instance: An enthusiast/pro camera could use a 6x4.5 sensor with a short registration distance and an adapter for legacy MF glass. The camera body would not be that much larger than today's K7, and with wide to normal lenses it would be a very compact combination. But it would be a real monster with a zoom: For instance, the equivalent of the 18-135 would be a 50-360! (5 kg weight?)
09-24-2010, 01:19 AM   #161
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QuoteOriginally posted by johnmflores Quote
IMO, no. It's classic market dynamics.

...

The other risk that they face is responding too slowly to the shift, so it makes sense for them to feint once in a while and suggest that they are ready to enter the space.

My $.02, non-refundable...
Looks like you studied some classic asian warrior history, you theory sounds decent, problem with those theories it is that you only know if they really apply to the current setting is afterwards...
- Oh, I thought it is nice theory put down in a very nice way

QuoteOriginally posted by gazonk Quote
In some years time, it's obvious that the SLR will become obsolete. There's no point in trying to move a mirror when shooting at 60 fps, and EVFs will have become good enough for those (including me) who think that the real OVF still is superior (I'm curious about the GH2 viewfinder, though). Those who play their cards right now, will be the winners then.

What will the winners do? First, I think it's obvious that a move to a shorter register distance is necessary, simply because you then can make simpler and better wide angles. Those who combine new mounts with legacy glass compatibility in the best way will have a very good position (I don't rule out Falk's KEVIL solution, though, may also work).

Second, I think the market may divide into at least two classes of formats. FF or MF is simply too large to make compact zooms, so travel-friendly and consumer-friendly interchangeable-lens cameras will have to use smaller formats, maybe also smaller than m4/3, while the pros may want to use larger cameras.

For instance: An enthusiast/pro camera could use a 6x4.5 sensor with a short registration distance and an adapter for legacy MF glass. The camera body would not be that much larger than today's K7, and with wide to normal lenses it would be a very compact combination. But it would be a real monster with a zoom: For instance, the equivalent of the 18-135 would be a 50-360! (5 kg weight?)
And due to technology the performance of the cheaper smaller camera type will more and more catch up with the big ones. And only value of old glass is slowing this transition down, because most newbies tend be willing to pay more for a new camera body than for a new lens. And manufactoring companies don't make much money on old glass.
Imagine what "damage" this new Fuji will do to big lens manufactoring companies? (Semi)-Pro will for sure buy one with a significant portion of their yearly cash budget or get cash by selling good glass they use less. Yeah, and more good glass on the second hand market won't be a good thing for lens manufactoring companies.

The wide angle part is most interesting.
- Due to the crop factors old wide glass is not wide any more
- Due to mirrorless new glass can be made better / cheaper

Is it wise to invest in an used UWA?
- m43 UWA are still sold at premium prices
09-24-2010, 03:30 AM   #162
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QuoteOriginally posted by JoepLX3 Quote
And due to technology the performance of the cheaper smaller camera type will more and more catch up with the big ones.
In many ways, yes, but lenses for a small-sensor system can never achieve the rendering and bokeh with thin DoF of lenses for a larger system, so there will always be the need for both. I have to get *really* close to get some nice bokeh from my iPhone 4



09-24-2010, 04:20 AM   #163
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Indeed sensor size itself is a crucial parameter for the optical system.
09-24-2010, 06:59 AM   #164
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QuoteOriginally posted by gazonk Quote
In some years time, it's obvious that the SLR will become obsolete. There's no point in trying to move a mirror when shooting at 60 fps
Not to mention the inappropriate shape for holding steady while recording video. I think that that time is pretty much upon us already.

QuoteOriginally posted by gazonk Quote
What will the winners do? First, I think it's obvious that a move to a shorter register distance is necessary, simply because you then can make simpler and better wide angles.
QuoteOriginally posted by gazonk Quote
...but lenses for a small-sensor system can never achieve the rendering and bokeh with thin DoF of lenses for a larger system, so there will always be the need for both. I have to get *really* close to get some nice bokeh from my iPhone 4
(That's an iphone pic? Wow.)

So is there a sweet spot for sensor size that allows for "rendering and bokeh" and "simpler and better wide angles"? Is it the accidental standard .. APS-C?

And if a new mount is inevitable, is there a future for the FA primes and other designed-for-film lenses? Can they be replicated in all of their retro glory on the new µK mount?
09-24-2010, 08:13 AM   #165
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QuoteOriginally posted by JoepLX3 Quote
Imagine what "damage" this new Fuji will do to big lens manufactoring companies? (Semi)-Pro will for sure buy one with a significant portion of their yearly cash budget or get cash by selling good glass they use less. Yeah, and more good glass on the second hand market won't be a good thing for lens manufactoring companies.
The most compelling aspect of the Fuji is the VF which has by far garnered the most attention.

Combine the VF with a fixed lens optimized for the APS-C sensor and you have a combo that says form follows function. Instead of the M43 trying to shrink the form and then design everything around it, Fuji looked at the picture IQ and opted for a larger sensor and no-compromise glass, combined with a VF experience both familiar and highly functional (on paper at least). Everything else follows.

Someone has been following the DP Review forums
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