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08-05-2010, 07:19 PM   #76
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
Nothing could be further from the truth. The fact is that the 645D is the most advanced MF DSLR on the market with an enormeous margin. In addition it is the most solidly made of them all and it is the only weather sealed one. The fact that the competition cost more tells more about the competition than the 645D...
You're describing value, not up-market. I'm not disagreeing, but a Hasselblad may only cost 2x more than the 645D, but they're charging 4x the price plus enormous margins on their "pro" service modules.

The 645D is to MF digital what the Mamiya 645E was to the later MF film market. But the Mamiya 645E was not a $12,000 camera. It started at $1,850 or thereabouts, so overall MF in its digital era has gone extremely up-market. The flip side to that is there is nothing in between for Pentax, no FF. As MF goes into the stratosphere, and the K-x becomes the dominant seller at a very low price point, Pentax gives up tons of room for brand continuity and spurs debates like this amongst the loyal. Thom Hogan has to work to stir a hornet's nest up with worries about Nikon's continuity. It's everyday life as a Pentaxian. If you can afford a 645D, you can also afford a Pentax FF *and* and APS-C portable mirrorless. So this limbo need not be.

Sony is unlikely to buy a product line without the ability to transfer those consumers over to it in whole. Fooled once by the Konica Minolta disloyal fan base it won't be fooled again. I do not think Pentax is salable in this market and for the foreseeable future.

08-05-2010, 10:16 PM   #77
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
. . .

Sony is unlikely to buy a product line without the ability to transfer those consumers over to it in whole. Fooled once by the Konica Minolta disloyal fan base it won't be fooled again. I do not think Pentax is salable in this market and for the foreseeable future.
The Minolta fan base lost its identity. They just couldn't identify with the symbol for alpha. That decline had started with the Konica + Minolta merger in 2003. Minolta-Konica had stopped camera and lens production before sony acquired the factory and tooling from them. Sony also made a major mistake by not realizing that part of the value was in the name. They further messed up the lineup. In many ways, its good the Minolta name isn't on some of that stuff. In essence, Sony fooled themselves.
08-06-2010, 12:07 AM   #78
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QuoteOriginally posted by roscothehun Quote
You don't read between the lines! it is not his assumption whether they sell or not THAT IS A FACT! the assumption comes in the upside or downside risks in it. So the division is up for sale, the analyst assumes if it sells early then it is an upside risk for Hoya if late then it is downside . Only the ones who know that timeline are able judge if those assumption are in line or not, but the FACT remains : Pentax is up for sale. just my two cents..rob
No, that's still an OPINION. An opinion that Pentax must, should, have to be sold - to anyone, just being sold is good enough. That Pentax can't survive, despite being profitable, despite growing, because it's not Canikon.
I've saw countless of times such opinions. Most of the time, talking as it was a fact (see this thread's title). Guess what, it isn't.
JMO.
08-06-2010, 03:22 AM   #79
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QuoteOriginally posted by roscothehun Quote
Only the ones who know that timeline are able judge if those assumption are in line or not, but the FACT remains : Pentax is up for sale. just my two cents..rob
Well. The particular analyst predicts a target share price of 2800 something. BTW, this particular analyst was one of only 16 analysts looking into Konica-Minolta, so he is a close follower of the Japanese photography companies too.

The "risks" apply to his own speculation, i.e., that Pentax may sell earlier or later than he assumes. The only fact we are seeing here is that this particular analyst speculates that sooner or later, Pentax will sell ...

08-06-2010, 09:53 AM   #80
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Would there be any interest from a company outside the current photography market for pentax. Like coming out of consumer electronics or from a telephone company (nokia or so)?

And what would they gain by bying Pentax?
08-06-2010, 09:02 PM   #81
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
. . . . . . The only fact we are seeing here is that this particular analyst speculates that sooner or later, Pentax will sell ...
Exactly. The analyst clearly believes both that Hoya will sell and that it's in the interest of the company's stockholders for it to do so. Whether he or she is on the mark is - of course - another matter. If my stock broker and the analysts I read were prescient, I'd be busy picking out my next private jumbo jet rather than reading stuff on this forum.

Still, what he/she says is - more or less - consistent with the comments made by Hoya's CEO (his name escapes me) some months ago. He stated quite plainly that Pentax's camera operation is too small to be "sustainable" (his word) given the formidable competition it faces. Futher, he said that after bringing the business to profitability (primarily by attacking the bottom line), Hoya would seek a partner going forward, i.e. Hoya wants to do something with the camera business to create the value it believes it can't do on its own. That "something" obviously will depend on who has an interest in Pentax's camera ops - it takes two to tango, after all; there might be an outright sell, a JV or a joint development and/or manufacturing agreement - or some hybrid of all these. It may take two or three years for this stuff to play out, and - for all we know - Hoya's strategy may change and carom off into another direction.

We'll see . . . . . but we can take pictures in the mean time.

Jer

Last edited by Sailor; 08-06-2010 at 09:03 PM. Reason: One "Jer" too many.
08-07-2010, 12:03 PM   #82
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According to noisy camera; Canon is actively seeking to buy a medium format company, Pentax could be bought. Where is Ned? His blog suddenly went very quiet awhile ago?
08-07-2010, 01:43 PM   #83
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clicker Quote
According to noisy camera; Canon is actively seeking to buy a medium format company, Pentax could be bought. Where is Ned? His blog suddenly went very quiet awhile ago?
Ned might know if something like this were going on, but he might not. He's only in charge of the US company, which from all appearances simply handles marketing and distribution. (And probably makes decisions like who actual repairs get outsourced to.)

08-07-2010, 01:51 PM   #84
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
The only fact we are seeing here is that this particular analyst speculates that sooner or later, Pentax will sell ...
And that is the safest assumption that any analyst can make. After all, every business (and every business unit) is for sale...if the price is right.
08-07-2010, 02:03 PM   #85
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that´s funny here
pentax is not to sell
08-07-2010, 02:33 PM   #86
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clicker Quote
According to noisy camera; Canon is actively seeking to buy a medium format company, Pentax could be bought. Where is Ned? His blog suddenly went very quiet awhile ago?
If you look back over the past couple of years, it isn't unusual for Ned to skip a month or 2.
08-09-2010, 07:00 PM   #87
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I just.don't.care.

I got a Leica M9 for my birthday on the weekend.
08-09-2010, 07:23 PM   #88
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QuoteOriginally posted by Digitalis Quote
I just.don't.care.

I got a Leica M9 for my birthday on the weekend.
Seriously? Congrats! I'm jealous!
08-26-2010, 11:19 AM   #89
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Upon further thought .....

My 500th post had to go somewhere and it may as well be here.

I've come to the conclusion that photokina is not a good place for any announcement about ownership:

* It would divert attention from Pentax products and announcements. This is positive only if the products/announcements are weak.

* Hoya may be waiting for market reaction to the new products in relation to the competitors'. Could affect the timing of the sale or even cause reconsideration of the very idea.

* Prospective buyers may believe that they cannot value the Pentax brand accurately until they see how the new products fare in the market. That valuation may require many months of watching financial results and competitors' positions or it may be no more than professional reviews and initial sales figures.

As always, we'll find that out in time.
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