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08-06-2010, 06:53 PM   #61
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QuoteOriginally posted by lurchlarson Quote

What is killing Pentax is that they are marketing themselves as a photo-enthusiast brand and not a brand where a photo-enthusiast can grow into a pro.

All other major brands have a path to pro. Why not Pentax? It keeps them from being taken seriously.
With all due respect, professional photography is dying. Photojournalism is almost dead except for a very few elite shooters, and those that remain make far more money writing books about their work than what their clients pay them.

This advanced technology and the internet-based self-help system (like this forum) have levelled the playing field, as is being done in print journalism, music, sewing patterns, etc.

Same for the old standby wedding photography, and portraiture, etc. Photoshop is a also a great equalizer as is Facebook. Why pay mega-$$$ for a wedding shoot when it's JPEG's online forever? That's becoming a dominant methodology reducing the weeding photog income stream.

Purists may argue otherwise, iStockphoto sells vastly more work from amateurs who have mainline jobs than those of the Magnum class now.

The concept of "getting paid" for being a photographer is being replaced by getting paid for the photo, regardless of what the career label the photographer wears or aspires to.

Tax revenues from the photographic employment sector are way, way, way down, far below the levels that employed the mini-labs. It's now into the meat.

08-06-2010, 07:03 PM   #62
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QuoteOriginally posted by uccemebug Quote
I see that you credit Pentax bloggers with considerable clout when it comes to store staff etc, and for speaking on behalf of Pentax enthusiasts. And you place a strong connection between enthusiasts and Pentax's market.
.
How may FF cameras can Pentax sell? That is the interesting question. >5% of the market is FF. If Pentax sells 600 000 DSLR's a year that means potentially >30 000 FF bodies. However, FF sales are dominated totally by Nikon and Canon which have virtually 100% of the pro market and 90% of the advanced amatuer market. I would estimate that Pentax could sell 10% of the level Nikon and Canon can regarding FF due to their dominance in this sector. That leaves > 3000 units/year for Pentax.- Personally I believe Pentax could sell >10 000 units of an FF camera even if it costed $1500. That will be filling the demand for the Pentax users sitting on a pool of old lenses. When that demand is met, sales will drop dramatically; this is probably what has happened with Sonys FF sales.
08-06-2010, 07:39 PM   #63
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QuoteOriginally posted by youky63 Quote
...I will not enjoy it. End of year, as suggested by the FF opponents, I am switching to Canon to get many pixels + higher isos + higher DR. And also fast and silent AF system. Even if Pentax announce a FF for Photokina, it will not change anything. I don't see clearly the future of Pentax, and much less the future of a potential FF line up: what would happen if 1st body is a failure? I am planning to spend about 5000 dollars for a whole new system. Staying in Pentax do not let me save any dollar, since I don't have high end FF Pentax lens. So it would be the same price for other brands, where I know I can get a FF body, even in 10 years.
Good for you. you've raised some interesting points... but pardon me asking, why are you even sticking around this forum then? Seems like Pentax is going nowhere by your prediction.
Why the need to publicly announce to everyone that you want to jump ship to Canon FF? Why wait till the end of the year? Why not switch NOW and enjoy the benefits of FF tomorrow?
Or are you held back by having to cough up more money for your dream FF set-up? Just wondering...
08-06-2010, 07:59 PM   #64
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QuoteOriginally posted by Paul Ewins Quote
I think that Hoya made the right choice for the Pentax brand when they brought out the 645D. They could be brand #4 in the FF market, just as they are in APS-C (or possibly brand #5, I lose track of these things) or they could be brand # 1 in the MF market. That's not to say that the 645D is automatically going to sweep Hasselblad etc aside, but they have a decent chance of owning that segment, given the advantages of lower price and greater technical resources.
Thanks for the laugh, I really needed that today. That would be like a Canon Rebel becoming the new go to camera for wedding photographers. Pentax is in 4th place in the MF arena, and will probably stay there. The 645d is not upgradable so will be of little interest to most pros. It may be of interest for someone just starting their studio, but if they are established they will stay with their Hasselblads, Mamiya, or Phase One. Not having a removable back pretty much relegates the 645d to high end amateur status (where the film 645 cameras were)

08-06-2010, 08:16 PM   #65
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QuoteOriginally posted by creampuff Quote
Good for you. you've raised some interesting points... but pardon me asking, why are you even sticking around this forum then? Seems like Pentax is going nowhere by your prediction.
Why the need to publicly announce to everyone that you want to jump ship to Canon FF? Why wait till the end of the year? Why not switch NOW and enjoy the benefits of FF tomorrow?
Or are you held back by having to cough up more money for your dream FF set-up? Just wondering...
I am sticking because I am still a K20D owner for a few months, and because I will remain a pentaxian for all my life, even with Canon stuff.
Pentax is not just a brand or equipment, it is also a way to "think" photography, a way to "take" photography (not in a hurry ). And a part f me will remain Pentaxist.
Then, why I am waiting... Very easy, I want to know what is coming fron Canon for Photokina. I am still dreaming of a 5DMkIII, or a 135mm f/1.8 L IS as some Canonist have suggested. And also I am waiting my 6.5k$ bonus for christmas to make this buy almost painless.
Then my turn to hae a question (maybe not specifically for you, but at least some other people on this forum):
Why do you hate so much the idea that Pentax can release (someday) a FF body? If you want to stick to APS-C, do not worry, they will continue to produce them, and good ones. But Why don't you want to let Pentax a chance to give to some advanced customers the ability to buy the system they want without to have to switch to another system (which means probably for most people switching to finally abandon K mount)?
I can understand why Pentax/Hoya do not start FF now (priority in Japan is EVIL, big money for the next 3/4 years, then will be too late. Which means new mount, new lenses, etc.), but from Pentax users, I really cannot understand...
08-06-2010, 08:18 PM   #66
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
How may FF cameras can Pentax sell?
Obviously, if it replaces APS-C, then as many as there are APS-C cameras sold now!

This is not about Pentax.

It's about Canon and Nikon, with Sony an outlier playing Minolta's old role.

In the titanic struggle between Canon and Nikon, these 2 brands slug it out using pure industrial muscle with a big chunk of earnings forwarded to marketing. All that matters here is that one of them will blink and realize there is more fortune to be made at the other guy's expense by putting this capital into lowering the FF sensor cost through volume, putting those sensors in at lower price points and stealing customers with the classic "my x is bigger than my competitor's x".

It did not work with Hummer but it will work here because the cost/benefit ratio decisively favour FF for just a minimal margin increase (about $100 per unit). For the industrial and design side, moving back to a single line of bodies and lenses will create a clear advantage for the long-term balance sheet.

When this happens, all DSLR brands have to go FF because their APS-C will be at a striking market disadvantage. It may persist in very low-end and mirrorless cameras for awhile, but APS-C, too, will go away as FF becomes commodified.

This would have happened already save for 5 things:

1) Sony is inept. It's not just cameras, but all over. The challenger is not challenging.

2) The Yen has been on a tear and the carry trade is dead, leaving Japanese companies capital shy (zombie banks don't help either). The pace of industrial turnover in Japan is tepid.

3) Ninon's had to put enormous capital into its own sensor development which is where it has lagged Canon and Sony.

4) Deflation is in evidence, meaning that prices cannot rise to meet the investment costs of making FF a commodity. It will take brute pricing, efficiency, and market share power to get costs down while retaining profits.

5) Digital took over from film at the higher end faster than anticipated. This is a reactionary (Falk called it superfluid) industry right now. There may not be collusion, but there are many reasons not to show cards.

Photokina 2010 will be very, very interesting. I am in the camp that if I do not see a Pentax roadmap, I will likely have to forego Pentax for Nikon. But as I said, this is really about what Canon or Nikon will do. 5:1 odds it is Canon that makes the big move.
08-06-2010, 09:15 PM   #67
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Actually, I think that the Rebel is the go to camera for most wedding photographers, it is just that most wedding photographers now are $500 shoot and burn amateurs.

But seriously, I think you must have a very fixed idea of what the MF market represents. At the moment it is people who can afford to splash $20,000 to $40,000 on a Mamiya/Phase One or Hasselblad. Pentax comes in offering a much cheaper camera with up to date electronics and, courtesy of the continuing development of their APS-C SLRs, the promise of continual improvement. It opens up MF to a new market rather than trying to grab a slice of the existing market. If you aspire to a 40mp sensor and have $12,000 - $20,000 to spend then Pentax is the only game in town.

A removable back is a non-feature, relevant only in the days when you were upgrading your film body. I think you will find that accurate metering and fast AF are much more of a sales pitch than any ability to connect with an obsolete legacy system. The time for switching from film to digital has passed, I don't think there are any more pro photographers grimly waiting for the prices of Hasselblad or Mamiya compatible backs to drop to an affordable level.

I should point out that the entire Phase One range has just four AF primes and one AF zoom. The Hasselbald H system (at double the cost of the Pentax) has nine primes and two zooms. Pentax has nine primes and five zooms with more to come.
08-06-2010, 11:27 PM   #68
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QuoteOriginally posted by youky63 Quote
...
Then my turn to hae a question (maybe not specifically for you, but at least some other people on this forum):
Why do you hate so much the idea that Pentax can release (someday) a FF body? If you want to stick to APS-C, do not worry, they will continue to produce them, and good ones. But Why don't you want to let Pentax a chance to give to some advanced customers the ability to buy the system they want without to have to switch to another system (which means probably for most people switching to finally abandon K mount)?
I can understand why Pentax/Hoya do not start FF now (priority in Japan is EVIL, big money for the next 3/4 years, then will be too late. Which means new mount, new lenses, etc.), but from Pentax users, I really cannot understand...
Well I have nothing against Pentax coming out with a FF camera. If it does have one in the pipeline, I have no qualms buying one. What I do know is the sweet spot in terms of growth currently lies in between PnS and DSLRs, which means EVIL/mirrorless cameras, not FF cameras. So I would bet that that's where Pentax will roll out its new camera. For all this while Pentax users have not had to spend more than US$1500 for an APS-C DSLR, and unlike some who earnestly believe a FF camera can be priced at this price point, the point is unveiling a Pentax FF camera is a bigger gamble than a Pentax EVIL camera.

The number of current Pentax users who are prepared to spend for a new FF camera at the prices of new, not used Canikon FF models is pretty limited by my reckoning. After all, the people who would buy a Pentax FF camera would naturally be existing APS-C users, not existing Canikon users for the most part. Given that a big reason why many people who use Pentax is because it is cheap relative to other brands, the big question mark for Pentax is if the small potential target market of FF upgraders is prepared to pay a premium for FF and if so at what price point.

08-07-2010, 12:12 AM   #69
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moved to - Off-Topic Forums > General Talk ?????

is someone hating FF cameras?
08-07-2010, 12:58 AM   #70
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QuoteOriginally posted by eigelb Quote
moved to - Off-Topic Forums > General Talk ?????
is someone hating FF cameras?
I also find it strange. While it may not belong to News and Rumors forum, it should at least be in the Pentax DSLR forum.
But Off-Topic? Talking about Pentax is off-topic in pentaxforums.com??
:ugh:
08-07-2010, 01:16 AM   #71
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Agreed. Why was this moved to "General Talk" when it is clearly a living thread about Pentax DSLR and so far, a fairly decent discussion?

Jason
08-07-2010, 02:00 AM   #72
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Questions are raised, those that may be not very popular.

However I truly can not understand why this has been moved. Its superactual.

Last time I checked calendar it was 2010, not 1984.
08-07-2010, 02:02 AM   #73
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Who moved this thread?

Show thyself!
08-07-2010, 02:07 AM   #74
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I guess that some of the "prominent members oppsing FF" are also moderators.

There are still so many crap speculating treads in the "News and Rumors" section that this move can not be made in random. This deep analysis of the market for Pentax goes while a dark picture of the K-7 stays as a possible K-5.
08-07-2010, 03:01 AM   #75
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
How may FF cameras can Pentax sell?
Again, let me repeat that this wasn't meant to launch yet another FF vs. APSC discussion.

It was about Pentax communication strategy in a situation where it becomes likely that the entire APSC dSLR market will move full frame some day (partly to counteract the SLDs).

Many expect or expected Pentax to say something about full frame at Photokina 2010. My News is that they don't plan to do so. And my proposed discussion is about the consequences of said silence. Not the benefits of APSC or FF...

Btw, I think that Pentax can wait for launching FF until it hits the $1500 price point. But I think it has to communicate this. Btw, I have reason to believe that Tokyo has ongoing full frame activity which isn't communicated even to other Pentax country organisations.

Last edited by falconeye; 08-07-2010 at 03:12 AM.
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