[Aristophanes]

Petavoxel has a new entry in his great blog about Pentax and full frame. As always, he's thoughtful and opinionated.

Here's a small quote on costs. But read the whole thing.


I forgot he also addressed the debate back in March:


And in May:



It would be great to watch Falk and Petavoxel debate live!

Well, from public cost models I computed upper bounds
for 2010 manufacturing costs for APS-C and full frame sensrs and the difference isless than $100

If this is true then Canon is making a good mark up on their FF cameras. But I would have to consider the time it takes to manufacture them in relation to how many they sell. I would also have to consider the cost other features they put into those cameras.

It seems to me that Pentax should increase its market share before it reconsiders a FF camera.

Canon is making a terrific markup from these cameras. Look at their most recent Q financials!

And where do you think they're putting the retained earnings portion of that markup? They'll pay down their FF fab, and then use that fab to put out FF chips at lower price points.

That will take market share away from Pentax. This is the threat horizon for Pentax's APS-C line.

[Tranzistors]

I have my flickr.com page and I could consider other sites as well.

On your flickr page, where can I see any mention of Pentax?

[traderdrew]

That's because I didn't use a Pentax for all of those shots. I used Nikon and then I started using Pentax. Some of my shots show where I gave Pentax the credit either in my comments below or the description. I have also posted some of them on a "K-7 flickr page". I just bought a D FA 100mm macro WR and I will be using it more.

I did get a flickr email from a Panasonic user the other day asking about Pentax cameras.

[Miserere]

Again, let me repeat that this wasn't meant to launch yet another FF vs. APSC discussion.

C'mon Falk, you should know by now that everything on PF is an APS-C vs FF debate

It was about Pentax communication strategy in a situation where it becomes likely that the entire APSC dSLR market will move full frame some day (partly to counteract the SLDs).

Many expect or expected Pentax to say something about full frame at Photokina 2010. My News is that they don't plan to do so. And my proposed discussion is about the consequences of said silence. Not the benefits of APSC or FF...

Those who expected Pentax to make an announcement of this sort do not understand how Japanese businesses operate. They are not open about what they do except amongst others within the industry, but never with their clients (you and me). The CEO of Nikon was publicly saying they would not release a FF Nikon until literally 2 weeks before the announcement of the D3 in August 2007. Pentax will not announce a FF camera until at the very least they have a mockup to display under glass.

Btw, I think that Pentax can wait for launching FF until it hits the $1500 price point. But I think it has to communicate this. Btw, I have reason to believe that Tokyo has ongoing full frame activity which isn't communicated even to other Pentax country organisations.

I agree that it would help Pentax's image to announce that there will be a FF in the future, but that's not how the guys in Tokyo see it.

As for communications with their international outlets, these are kept to a need-to-know basis. I've spoken to enough people who work for these companies to know that they are nothing more than sales departments. If a FF were to be released in 2011 (but not announced at Photokina), none of the international Pentax groups would know about it. I would venture a guess that the heads-up time is something like 6-8 weeks, enough time to get the sales brochures translated, the website redesigned and notify the big camera outlets to create a new item # and send them pics to prepare their own preorder pages.

...

[glanglois]

Miserere: absolutely correct on what Japanese business in general would prefer to do. And has done repeatedly.

And undoubtedly Hoya would prefer to limit a roadmap to prospective purchasers under a strict NDA to avoid giving strategic intelligence to competitors. The purchaser may be even more insistent upon secrecy than Hoya.

But Hoya may decide that they simply need to make a move to preserve their competitive position and the loyal user base. And perhaps prospective purchasers would insist upon it - to preserve the value of Pentax.

This is one more critical moment for Hoya/Pentax. I do not assume that prior practice can be relied upon as a guide. We simply don't know.

And I will assume that there is a well-planned roadmap that Hoya can roll out if/when they have to. It's just hard to see what the triggering event would be in these turbulent times.

[Aristophanes]

Miserere: absolutely correct on what Japanese business in general would prefer to do. And has done repeatedly.

And undoubtedly Hoya would prefer to limit a roadmap to prospective purchasers under a strict NDA to avoid giving strategic intelligence to competitors. The purchaser may be even more insistent upon secrecy than Hoya.

But Hoya may decide that they simply need to make a move to preserve their competitive position and the loyal user base. And perhaps prospective purchasers would insist upon it - to preserve the value of Pentax.

This is one more critical moment for Hoya/Pentax. I do not assume that prior practice can be relied upon as a guide. We simply don't know.

And I will assume that there is a well-planned roadmap that Hoya can roll out if/when they have to. It's just hard to see what the triggering event would be in these turbulent times.

Careful not to put the cart before the horse.

Pentax need not release or even announce FF at Photokina 2010. They can wait to see what Canikon are up to, what Sony does, what Panasonic announces. Price points are everything to the timing here.

They can hint at a direction, however....


....through their lens offerings. Falk has clearly demonstrated that Pentax has hedged their capabilities for FF with a continuing line of FF-capable DA and DA* and Ltd glass still in production.

I would not be surprised to see Pentax have minor body upgrades to the K-7 and K-x DSLR, a mid-level entry (K-5 or baby K-7), and announce a mirrorless proof of concept. If they release some glass, I also would not be surprised to see a cheap 35 DA only, but 2-3 other pieces (as hinted at in another thread) that are FF image circle.

That will tell us they see a road and are drawing a map. They need to say: "Continue to buy Pentax safe that we have secured a future for your glass."

[glanglois]

Good point. A lens lineup/roadmap may be as much of a guide (in the case of FF) as a body roadmap. But the meaning has to be particularly clear if the communication is indirect. Or else the anxiety will continue ....

A POC for mirrorless sounds right. If it's distinct, it can freeze the market for a bit. A little bit. The trick is to deliver quickly enough that the distinction is maintained rather than copied into oblivion.

I suspect that the others can move fast when they feel the need. Perhaps they won't see Pentax as enough of a threat to move fast?

[deejjjaaaa]

s
If used correctly the K-7 achieves very good high ISO results.

sure, resizing down = NR

[fearview]

fullframe roadmap?

yes.

[jslifoaw]

A FF roadmap wouldn't be the end of the world. I think that anybody who was giving FF strong consideration wouldn't really care what happens in the APS-C world and similarly, most APS-C users will hang around and use APS-C equipment for reasons like cost ($1500-2000 is still a lot for a body even if it's FF since APS-C bodies will be under $1000), telephoto reach (unless the FF bodies have crazy pixel density), and potentially cheaper/smaller lenses (mostly because they're slower when you compare aperture size for a given FOV in two formats)

The 645D is not a solution because lenses are nowhere as interchangeable as they are between APS-C and FF, it is much more expensive, it is much heavier and larger, and the lenses are also not that equivalently fast (probably more even in sharpness though)

[Belnan]

A Full Frame roadmap would be OK. Better yet release a Full Frame DSLR. Now would be the most ideal time in recent years. Canon and Nikon are still asking a mint for their 7D and d300s, if a full frame Pentax can come even close to these in terms of price they would have a good head start in the "affordable" FF market. If they don't do it soon there will be little point, now is the time Pentax. JUST DO IT

[opiet70]

I am going to start my open letter to pentax about how they should include a supermodel with every pro-level pentax camera body.

I'm on board!

[ewalk]

A Full Frame roadmap would be OK. Better yet release a Full Frame DSLR. Now would be the most ideal time in recent years. Canon and Nikon are still asking a mint for their 7D and d300s, if a full frame Pentax can come even close to these in terms of price they would have a good head start in the "affordable" FF market. If they don't do it soon there will be little point, now is the time Pentax. JUST DO IT

Isn't that what Sony tried to do with the A850? First FF priced around $2000? Nearly $500 less than the D700 and 5D MkII at the time? The street price has been pretty firm on the 850, but it's still significantly cheaper than the relative competition.

[Peter Zack]

I whole-heartedly disagree. Pentax does not have to put out a full frame camera. I think that it is much more important to re-establish a solid pro-support system as well as a camera that they market as a full-pro camera a la the Olympus e-3. The e-3 is marketed as a full pro camera, has a sensor smaller than APS-C and yet allows Olympus to stay relevant in the pro market.

What is killing Pentax is that they are marketing themselves as a photo-enthusiast brand and not a brand where a photo-enthusiast can grow into a pro.

All other major brands have a path to pro.
Why not Pentax? It keeps them from being taken seriously.

I completely disagree. Pentax does need a FF body that is killer in low light, much faster than anything built today by them and much more responsive. They also need to be smart about it and use a sensor no bigger than 18MP IMO. Otherwise the low light benefits will be lost.

There is nothing in today's line that comes even close to what a working pro needs. Yes Ben K uses a K20D and that's fine for his studio work. It suits him. But for the wedding and sports shooters, there's no reason to wait yet another year after waiting 3 years already.

Forget the small sensor Oly Pro wannabe cameras. They can't possibly touch a camera like a D3 or it's brothers.

[obheng]

I find it fascinating to see so many so-called 'Pentax champs' here condemning those who are hoping for a FF from Pentax, with such tiresome 'arguments' like "don't need it, APSC good enough for me", "focus your skills, not the equipment", "pros are not using FFs and not interested" etc etc. I really don't see how it will hurt anyone here if Pentax/Hoya do decide push forward their plans to come up with a FF to compete with big boys. It is not as though they are asking Pentax to stop making good APSC or even the EVIL cameras.