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09-21-2010, 03:40 PM   #106
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There are a lot of Canon users in this country whose obvious upgrade path is to the 5D MK2. Even users who really don't need to go that far still consider it. Why? Because people often want the biggest and the best, the biggest plasma tv the fastest car etc etc. To say that the 645D could outsell a prosumer full frame is crazy. I am sure that the 645D will not outsell the 5D, not on this planet anyway. If Pentax produced a similar DSLR to the Canon they would sell enough to make it worth while and existing Pentax users would stay and buy into more lenses etc.
The disapointment with the K5 is not only that it is not FF. New sensor or not it IS only an upgrade with nothing groundbreaking or vastly different than existing Canikon offerings.

09-21-2010, 03:49 PM   #107
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QuoteOriginally posted by ozlizard Quote
There are a lot of Canon users in this country whose obvious upgrade path is to the 5D MK2. Even users who really don't need to go that far still consider it. Why? Because people often want the biggest and the best, the biggest plasma tv the fastest car etc etc. To say that the 645D could outsell a prosumer full frame is crazy. I am sure that the 645D will not outsell the 5D, not on this planet anyway. If Pentax produced a similar DSLR to the Canon they would sell enough to make it worth while and existing Pentax users would stay and buy into more lenses etc.
The disapointment with the K5 is not only that it is not FF. New sensor or not it IS only an upgrade with nothing groundbreaking or vastly different than existing Canikon offerings.
The 1DS Mk III and D3x are the top bodies in the Canikon FF line-up. I really don't think your so-called pro-sumers are the ones buying those unless they happen to be Bill Gates. Pro-sumers (what ever they are) are not the target audience for any of these.

Edit: Upgrades can be major or minor and involve minimal replacement of hardware with software updates or a complete replacement of hardware and software.
09-21-2010, 06:44 PM   #108
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QuoteOriginally posted by Blue Quote
The 1DS Mk III and D3x are the top bodies in the Canikon FF line-up
I don't remember mentioning these cameras. The only "prosumer" FF DSLR's I know are the 5D MK2 and maybe the Sony 900/850. Both of these options are well within reach of the dedicated serious photographer.
09-21-2010, 07:45 PM   #109
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QuoteOriginally posted by jogiba Quote
So you are saying all of this talk about wanting a FF Pentax to use with the 24 million K mount lenses out there is total BS and there are more that would pay 4x as much as a FF Pentax DSLR like the 5D MKII for a 645D ? I bet if we had a poll here you would be wrong.
I'm certainly not saying anything of the kind. Remember, there are two distinct points of view here: the camera buyer/user and the camera maker (Pentax). From the former's point of view, FF makes a lot of sense and has certain technical advantages. Plus it would be a fun new toy. If I win the lottery, I may fly to Japan and buy a 645D.

However, from the camera maker's point of view, in this case Pentax, FF makes very little sense. It would be very, very expensive to develop such a camera and it would be extremely difficult to pry any significant market share away from C & N.

Unless Pentax could match C & N's sales numbers, which is virtually impossible, I don't think that the economy of scale necessary to keep prices competitive can be achieved. That means that, out of the chute, Pentax would have to sell almost as many FF cameras as either C or N does. Ain't gonna happen. If Pentax only captures, optimistically, ten percent of the FF market, a camera that Nikon could sell profitably for $2,000 would cost Pentax $3,000 or more.

If you spend $1 million to develop a camera and sell a million of them, you have $1 per camera in development cost. If you only sell 1,000, you have $1,000 per camera. This doesn't even include the cost of the materials and labor to build it. And, I suspect the development cost would be quite a bit more than $1M.

While the enthusiast market might look at those 24 million lenses and wish for a digital camera to use them on, do you really think that a modern camera company can produce a camera, with no matching lens lineup and ask their customers to go to eBay to get their glass? They'd have to release a half dozen lenses on day one, which would be a further expense. And, yes I realize that Pentax still has a few FA lenses in production, or at least for sale.

OTOH, I really hope I'm wrong. I hope Pentax can release a FF camera and make a huge profit.

09-21-2010, 08:11 PM   #110
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QuoteOriginally posted by ozlizard Quote
I don't remember mentioning these cameras. The only "prosumer" FF DSLR's I know are the 5D MK2 and maybe the Sony 900/850. Both of these options are well within reach of the dedicated serious photographer.
Why do you think the 645D would be competing with the lesser FF?
09-21-2010, 09:51 PM   #111
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The flicker data Big G provided, shows the 5D mkii as holding the number three spot for the Canons. It shows more average daily users then either the 40D, 50D, or 7D.

I find this REALLY suprising.

The D700 is holding the number 8 spot for the Nikons, with about half the daily users as the 5D mkii.

I get the impresion that the FF market is busier then I would have expected.

The data neglects to say what is the most popular colour for the k-x though. Thats gotta mater right?
09-21-2010, 10:34 PM   #112
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QuoteOriginally posted by jogiba Quote
If Pentax came out today with a FF DSLR with the same specs as the Canon 5D MKII at the same price I would buy it.
And Canon can't interest you in a 5D MKII?

QuoteOriginally posted by Blue Quote
I believe they realized after they "tabled" it that it was at a point that it made more economic since as well as P.R. to go ahead and finish it.
Yeah, I get that impression too. Something about the on-off start of that thing in the year leading up to its release....

QuoteOriginally posted by jogiba Quote
I bet if we had a poll here ....
We did a poll on how much this forum's members would spend on a FF DSLR. The answer? $1500-$2000.
09-21-2010, 10:43 PM   #113
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That is what I paid for my D700.

09-22-2010, 01:17 AM   #114
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QuoteOriginally posted by Blue Quote
Why do you think the 645D would be competing with the lesser FF?
I don't.
09-22-2010, 01:34 AM   #115
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QuoteOriginally posted by jogiba Quote
So you are saying all of this talk about wanting a FF Pentax to use with the 24 million K mount lenses out there is total BS and there are more that would pay 4x as much as a FF Pentax DSLR like the 5D MKII for a 645D ? I bet if we had a poll here you would be wrong.
I'm just saying that the 645D sells very well in Japan, better than many FF models. Of course it doesn't sell like the two only really successful FF cameras, the 5D Mk II or the D700, but that hardly tells us anything about how successful a relatively inexpensive FF Pentax would be.
09-22-2010, 01:39 AM   #116
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Well, I guess that to somehow foresee the interest for a Pentax FF we can look at Sony, and their cheap fullframe A 850... hardly a game-changer... bought basically only by people with Milolta lenses... and surely not a commercial success.
09-22-2010, 02:04 AM   #117
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QuoteOriginally posted by eurostar Quote
Well, I guess that to somehow foresee the interest for a Pentax FF we can look at Sony, and their cheap fullframe A 850... hardly a game-changer... bought basically only by people with Milolta lenses... and surely not a commercial success
Well my brother, who bought a 5D MK2, is part of the "new generation" of digital photogaphers who are largly ignorant of the past. When I told him about the Sony 900 his remark was "that camera can't be very good, Sony don't make camera's!". He was totally unaware of the link with Minolta, as I guess a lot of new photographers are.
I just don't think that that camera is on people's radar.
Canon and Nikon say they are the best so they must be! Not that there is anything wrong with the 5D. I had a close look at my brother's and the resulting images on my PC and I must say I was not overly impressed.
09-22-2010, 02:10 AM   #118
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QuoteOriginally posted by ozlizard Quote
Well my brother, who bought a 5D MK2, is part of the "new generation" of digital photogaphers who are largly ignorant of the past. When I told him about the Sony 900 his remark was "that camera can't be very good, Sony don't make camera's!". He was totally unaware of the link with Minolta, as I guess a lot of new photographers are.
Well, when some times ago I put an ad for selling a Pentax lens, some people called asking "Pentax, ok, but the mount is Canon or Nikon?"

I don't think Pentax is much more on the radar of most people, surely not above Sony...
09-22-2010, 10:50 AM   #119
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QuoteOriginally posted by KungPOW Quote
The flicker data Big G provided, shows the 5D mkii as holding the number three spot for the Canons. It shows more average daily users then either the 40D, 50D, or 7D.

I find this REALLY suprising.
You're taking that figure out of context though.

More daily users perhaps, but with regards to "Full Frame Vs APS-C" is shows that although it's got more users per camera, it's only got an average 3134 users compared to the total APS-C of the 40D, 50D and 7D which total 6859 just for those three cameras nevermind the rest of the APS-C bunch.

Throw in the 450D etc. and you get:

EOS 1000D - 2519
EOS 550D - 1298
EOS 500D - 2713
EOS 450D - 4500
EOS 400D - 3839
EOS 350D - 2238

Add that to the 40D, 50D and 7D users and you get a total of 23966 avg daily APS-C users.

The number of 5D Mk2 users is therefore tiny in the face of the APS-C market - a mere 13% on the above bodies alone. APS-C is very much where it's at for Canon.
09-22-2010, 05:18 PM   #120
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QuoteOriginally posted by uccemebug Quote
And Canon can't interest you in a 5D MKII?
Not unless they come out with a K mount version.
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