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09-17-2010, 08:06 AM   #106
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QuoteOriginally posted by ghelary Quote
Did you see the price of their 24-70/2.8 ? of the 24/1.4 ? of the 34/1.4 ? of their long lenses ?

And then you have to take consideration of their size and weight. High end APSC have still a future, for those who want quality and reliability but not IQ... (yes, there are those, those were the ones who used Nikon F or Leica M and not medium format.)
QuoteOriginally posted by Lars Quote
I agree, but the total market for these type might decrease. Will pentax be able to increase their part of the market, not having FF?
Easy and short answer: No.

The market will be split with less to the company without FF, plain and simple. High end APS-C will disappear because of the in-brand cannibalization factor. This is Pentax's problem is it may be forced to compete against aggressive D7000 pricing AND aggressive Nikon FF pricing (with Sony and Canon waiting in the wings). Nikon's D7000 pricing is a very loud shot across the bow of the competition.

Pentax will bleed high-end revenues from APS-C body sales, meaning that lens development and marketing stall as well.

Pentax needs to address the FF issue sooner rather than later because many of their prosumer, installed base see terrific value with other brands. Pentax does not have the product array to go head-to-head with Nikon at a price/value disadvantage. Pentax has their low-end bodies worked out, but the high-end is a real question mark, both bodies and lenses MF aside).

09-17-2010, 08:24 AM   #107
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
High end APS-C will disappear because of the in-brand cannibalization factor.
Based on what I can see, APS-C has never been stronger. And with the addition of mirroless system, I think all manufacturers are headed in the same direction.

QuoteQuote:
This is Pentax's problem is it may be forced to compete against aggressive D7000 pricing AND aggressive Nikon FF pricing (with Sony and Canon waiting in the wings).
Since when is not selling referred to as waiting?
Do you think companies such as Canon and Sony can wait?
The other side of sales, are financial losses, there is no such thing as waiting in this business. Whatever Sony and Canon doesn't sell will result in attention toward Nikon and Pentax's products.

QuoteQuote:
Nikon's D7000 pricing is a very loud shot across the bow of the competition.
I agree, and this may be a moment in history as Pentax and Nikon go toe-to-toe with competing products. Which can be seen as a bold move on Pentax's behalf as they have been known to stay out of the arena with such things. However... the good news is that Pentax is well poised to adjust their own prices to remain competitive which should work just fine as they cater to existing customers.

QuoteQuote:
Pentax will bleed high-end revenues from APS-C body sales, meaning that lens development and marketing stall as well.
Nice choice of wording(), but if this were the case, then we would have to say that Pentax would have been bleeding for years now. Which in turn raises the question... where does all this blood come from.

QuoteQuote:
Pentax needs to address the FF issue sooner rather than later because many of their prosumer, installed base see terrific value with other brands.
Personally, I think the entire FF deal is blown out of proportion. I picked-up a FF several months ago and realized that I did it for all the wrong reasons. Now today, Pentax has an APS-C solution that rivals FF at 1/2 the price without having to rebuild my working kit.

QuoteQuote:
Pentax does not have the product array to go head-to-head with Nikon at a price/value disadvantage. Pentax has their low-end bodies worked out, but the high-end is a real question mark, both bodies and lenses MF aside).
Define high-end?
Last I looked the 645D was revered as high-end by most manufacturers.
And though I think Pentax has its work cut out for itself(its never easy) with respects to gaining a market share. I also think they are playing their cards quite well considering they have gone head to head with one of the leading camera companies.

Last edited by JohnBee; 09-17-2010 at 08:42 AM.
09-17-2010, 10:36 AM   #108
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Certainly for the people who are already invested in Pentax, and don't mind that their camera brand has low market share, the D7000 anouncentment won't dampen their enthusiasm at all. It SEEMS that the K-5 will be a nice upgrade for many, a great camera.

From my perspective, I don't like the practical disadvantages of having a low market share brand. I would prefer to be able to shop for bodies, lenses, and accessories in stores. I'd like to be able to check out new bodies and lenses that other friends and aquaintences have. I'd like to be able to occasionally rent somehting I need, etc... This isn't possible with Pentax. So, I would like their market share to grow and be more popular. And for that to happen, Pentax would have to be able to provide more for less. So for me, for this Nikon to be such a worthy competitor is a disadvantage.

I don't have the cash to switch systems, so regardless of the competition, I hope the two new Pentax models turn out to be great improvements.
09-17-2010, 11:21 AM   #109
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I have bought the K-X for 2 mains reason , size/weight and low light imaage quality
As an amateur who mainly use the camera when travelling , this is very important and I do not feel I need a FF for that purpose. Lense was more important for me that the FF

09-17-2010, 11:33 AM   #110
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JohnBee-

I agree with you on every point. This whole Pentax will go broke without a FF camera is getting a bit tired. Where are all the new Full Frame camera bodies being released? In fact, the truth is probably closer to Pentax better start looking at mirrorless or they will go out of business, which I don't believe either. Maybe Pentax should release a mirrorless FF.................. I would love to see how many micro 4/3 cameras were sold last year by Olympus and Panasonic vs Canon/Sony/Nikon Full Frames. I bet it's pretty close.

Canon appears to getting ready to enter the mirrorless market with a sensor that's almost micro 4/3. In fact the all the trends I see point away from Full Frame not towards it.
09-17-2010, 11:40 AM   #111
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QuoteOriginally posted by JohnBee Quote
Based on what I can see, APS-C has never been stronger. And with the addition of mirroless system, I think all manufacturers are headed in the same direction.
Sony's NEX mount is FF-capable. You can use the same wood to build a house and have some left over for a coffin.

You will have mirrorless FF. not soon, but you will.

APS-C has issues with being a commodity product now, with pro features (like high ISO capabilities) making their way down the price ladder. Soon, price point differentiation will turn to sensor size. Nikon and Sony are laying the groundwork.

QuoteQuote:
I agree, and this may be a moment in history as Pentax and Nikon go toe-to-toe with competing products. Which can be seen as a bold move on Pentax's behalf as they have been known to stay out of the arena with such things. However... the good news is that Pentax is well poised to adjust their own prices to remain competitive which should work just fine as they cater to existing customers.
What Nikon is doing is making it extremely hard to slow down the APS-C high0-end product cycle to maximize sunk costs on bodies. Their pricing model clearly anticipates and leaves room for FF at lower price points. If Pentax hasn't a competing model, new customers in that high-end, high-margin range will not have a Pentax choice.


QuoteQuote:
Nice choice of wording(), but if this were the case, then we would have to say that Pentax would have been bleeding for years now. Which in turn raises the question... where does all this blood come from.
Less K-5 sales. Pentax is boxed in, so they have to sell more low-end on volume and less high-end on margin.

Now try and fit that in with Pentax's lens array. Not good.

Also, it's never good to be mostly reactionary in a market. Nikon is starting to define the market.

QuoteQuote:
Personally, I think the entire FF deal is blown out of proportion. I picked-up a FF several months ago and realized that I did it for all the wrong reasons. Now today, Pentax has an APS-C solution that rivals FF at 1/2 the price without having to rebuild my working kit.
So drop the FF price. It can (and will) be done, in smaller form factors as well. Bigger long glass, but better wide and legacy options.

QuoteQuote:
Define high-end?
$1,500 to $10,000 complete systems.

QuoteQuote:
Last I looked the 645D was revered as high-end by most manufacturers.
And though I think Pentax has its work cut out for itself(its never easy) with respects to gaining a market share. I also think they are playing their cards quite well considering they have gone head to head with one of the leading camera companies.
The 645D is far too expensive for mass market sales. It actually makes the point that high-margin, small run products can be successful. The 645D is the budget MF, but still more than maybe all but 1% of prosumer buying power.
09-17-2010, 12:15 PM   #112
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
APS-C has issues with being a commodity product now, with pro features (like high ISO capabilities) making their way down the price ladder. Soon, price point differentiation will turn to sensor size. Nikon and Sony are laying the groundwork.
You're forgetting DR and color space as well. Fact is, APS-C has been making steady progress where it counts the most, which is why we are now seeing APS-C at the heels of FF in terms of performance. And though the idea of FF seems like a better deal overall, I suspect the issue will remain a price point one for many years to come as developments continue.

QuoteQuote:
Their pricing model clearly anticipates and leaves room for FF at lower price points. If Pentax hasn't a competing model, new customers in that high-end, high-margin range will not have a Pentax choice.
I agree... though I doubt this will turn-out to be as significant as it may sound as all manufacturers will be equally subject to lowered production costs(no magic for Nikon).

Considering Pentax has yet to compete in the FF arena, I doubt were going to see major financial losses in that area any time soon. The simple fact of the matter is where product pricing is rarely(if never) a fixed commodity and that your own assessments do not seem to factor this into the equation. ie. when FF prices drop, so too will crop sensors drop. Keeping in mind, where manufacturing costs are respective across the board.

QuoteQuote:
Also, it's never good to be mostly reactionary in a market. Nikon is starting to define the market.
I think Nikon and Canon have been defining markets for many years now

QuoteQuote:
$1,500 to $10,000 complete systems.
I don't think it's wise to define high end equipment by price alone. Mainly because product prices are in a constant state of reduction as technology advancements are made. I also think the camera and photography industry is perhaps one of the most prolific with respect to product development than any other mass product distribution channel. Mainly because there is so much headroom left with respect to CCD development.

QuoteQuote:
The 645D is far too expensive for mass market sales. It actually makes the point that high-margin, small run products can be successful. The 645D is the budget MF, but still more than maybe all but 1% of prosumer buying power.
I agree... but then again, high end equipment needn't be governed by price either. The good news is that the 645D is an infant amongst medium format product for Pentax and that there is room for growth. And more of all... price improvements

I think Pentax has done very well for itself this year.
It has proven that it can take a stand and compete in one of the toughest markets out there. And lets not forget that we have yet to see the final results of the K-5 against the competition. Which still leaves room for Pentax to take a lead and set the standard as the one to beat in 2010/11.

I've read alot of doomsday proclaimers at the sight of the D7000, but without seeing the final scores, the tables can turn in any given direction at this stage .

Last edited by JohnBee; 09-17-2010 at 12:25 PM.
09-17-2010, 05:12 PM   #113
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QuoteOriginally posted by stanleyk Quote
JohnBee-

I agree with you on every point. This whole Pentax will go broke without a FF camera is getting a bit tired. Where are all the new Full Frame camera bodies being released? In fact, the truth is probably closer to Pentax better start looking at mirrorless or they will go out of business, which I don't believe either. Maybe Pentax should release a mirrorless FF.................. I would love to see how many micro 4/3 cameras were sold last year by Olympus and Panasonic vs Canon/Sony/Nikon Full Frames. I bet it's pretty close.

Canon appears to getting ready to enter the mirrorless market with a sensor that's almost micro 4/3. In fact the all the trends I see point away from Full Frame not towards it.
No, all the real money is going up, not down. How do you think Canon and Nikon fund their developments? Look at their financials. They make 10x on an FF DSLR what they make per unit from their P&S and 4x what they make on their APS-C per unit.

You need volume to sell commodity priced products, and APS-C has become commodity priced. We're starting to see APS-C DSLR's at the US$299 price point. You have to sell a huge container ship worth of those to keep the factory going. Any slip and you lose the factory. Smaller run, high-margin products have greater shelf life and slower turnover and inventory costs. They make shareholders far happier (like the Pentax 645D).

So along comes mirrorless. At lower price points? No, not a chance. another option to move APS-C or M4/3 up the price ladder, but only temporarily. It's a lull trying to make up where the competition in DSLR land is chewing away at margins (along with the high Yen). We went through this in the 1980's in cameras.

Follow the $$$ and the trend is away from commodity price products, which is precisely why both Canon and Nikon have been investing hugely in their own multi-$billion fabs for in-house sensor production. APS-C is selling in bulk at fire sale prices which consumers benefit from with greater purchasing power. But where are Canikon and Sony putting their $$$ from these profits? Into more APS-C? No. Into FF fabs. Canon and Nikon have essentially bet the farm here. Oly simply did not have the $$$ to keep up, so they are trying their best to keep the loyal happy in 4/3 land, but have really decided to compete at the commodity level all out at lower price points, low margins, high volume.

Where does that leave Pentax? Pentax has low volume lens arrays. It has a pedigree of premium products like 6x7and MF. At heart it *is* an FF company with its backwards compatible k-mount. Pentax is not and hasn't been since the 1970's a high volume, commodity consumer brand. That's the APS-C market as we can see by the declining price point of the D7000.

(With the Yen at record highs. If the Yen was where it was 10 years ago, knock $US200 off that initial price and then restart this discussion.)


Last edited by Aristophanes; 09-17-2010 at 07:55 PM. Reason: tpyos
09-17-2010, 05:53 PM   #114
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To be honest, I don't give a damn about the "challenge". The D7000 looks like a beautiful camera, as well as the K5.

I've got some nice Pentax gear now and since I feel comfortable with my choice, I'm gonna get a K5 myself, sooner or later. If I were a proud nikonist, it would have been the same with the D7000.
09-18-2010, 01:59 AM   #115
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I AM SO NERVOUS THAT I AM UP TO 2 PACKS OF SMOKES A DAY!!!


QuoteOriginally posted by ewalk Quote
These forums are really odd.

I don't see how any new camera releases are going to stop me from picking up my 2 year old K200D and my nearly 20 year old Super Program and taking them to the beach this weekend.

Instead of sitting on these boards sweating about stats and spec sheets, I might actually go out and take some pictures. What a novel idea!
+1 - Good posting!


QuoteOriginally posted by Sailor Quote
I'll either want a K-5 or I won't. Nobody can force me to buy one so why should I be nervous? In fact, why would anyone be nervous over the fact that he/she has a couple (or more) of attractive choices? We're the customers with the cash and the control - it's the manufacturers who should be nervous.

Also, help me understand why it's suddenly so shocking that the various camera companies offer competitive products. Such has been the case since I bought my my first MX in 1978. So what's new?

Frankly, I'm baffled by all of the hubbub - but maybe I'm missing something.

Jer
Agreed.
09-18-2010, 03:17 AM - 1 Like   #116
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Nervous? not in the slightest, the K-5 will lose in every comparison between the 2 online and in magazine format, nothing new there...
The menu system will get a kicking for being too old fashioned and requiring too many button presses (Amateur Photographer UK). The Jpeg system will be beaten up by Dpreview, and Nikon will find a way of making the D7000 rank higher on DXOMark. Our forum members here will give out that it costs too much and that the K20 / K-7 will have better lower ISO for landscape work
And you know what, I couldn't give a damn! This will be equal to the best of any APS-C by any other manufacturer and probably even surpass them with some talent behind the viewfinder. Thats the way Pentax works , 'we will give you the tool, its up to you to use it!'
Jpeg? does not bother me, I use raw, the digital negative. Menu system? I have 2 dials for aperture and speed, there is a specific ISO button for the infrequent times I have to change that and after a weeks use I'll know it inside out so another non issue. The only thing that will stop me buying this in October is that there probably won't be a Katzeye available for it straight away... As soon as its available I will get one. Cost? hmm, Hoya are slowing moving Pentax away from the competition, they cost more, get over it, have pride in your Pentax, it is your choice to buy into this system and also this community. An extra couple of hundred dollars or euro will maybe cause some of us to leave, fair enough thats a pity but I would rather spend that and be part of this community and have access to the talent, advice and creativity available here and in some other places. And for the ability to mount an FA Limited, thats something the other 2 cannot compete with.
S!
09-18-2010, 03:18 AM   #117
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
No, all the real money is going up, not down. How do you think Canon and Nikon fund their developments? Look at their financials. They make 10x on an FF DSLR what they make per unit from their P&S and 4x what they make on their APS-C per unit.

You need volume to sell commodity priced products, and APS-C has become commodity priced. We're starting to see APS-C DSLR's at the US$299 price point. You have to sell a huge container ship worth of those to keep the factory going. Any slip and you lose the factory. Smaller run, high-margin products have greater shelf life and slower turnover and inventory costs. They make shareholders far happier (like the Pentax 645D).

So along comes mirrorless. At lower price points? No, not a chance. another option to move APS-C or M4/3 up the price ladder, but only temporarily. It's a lull trying to make up where the competition in DSLR land is chewing away at margins (along with the high Yen). We went through this in the 1980's in cameras.

Follow the $$$ and the trend is away from commodity price products, which is precisely why both Canon and Nikon have been investing hugely in their own multi-$billion fabs for in-house sensor production. APS-C is selling in bulk at fire sale prices which consumers benefit from with greater purchasing power. But where are Canikon and Sony putting their $$$ from these profits? Into more APS-C? No. Into FF fabs. Canon and Nikon have essentially bet the farm here. Oly simply did not have the $$$ to keep up, so they are trying their best to keep the loyal happy in 4/3 land, but have really decided to compete at the commodity level all out at lower price points, low margins, high volume.

Where does that leave Pentax? Pentax has low volume lens arrays. It has a pedigree of premium products like 6x7and MF. At heart it *is* an FF company with its backwards compatible k-mount. Pentax is not and hasn't been since the 1970's a high volume, commodity consumer brand. That's the APS-C market as we can see by the declining price point of the D7000.

(With the Yen at record highs. If the Yen was where it was 10 years ago, knock $US200 off that initial price and then restart this discussion.)
So the ultimate problem with APS-C is price competition from similar FF cameras. You seem to be arguing that the manufacturer's solution to APS-C cameras moving into commodity space is to produce FF cameras in the commodity space?

The first thing that the D7000 is going to do is cannibalize D700 sales. My brother, a D700 owner, is already considering a trade in. Why? Cost and weight of the D700—it's too big for him to carry around. And he's a big guy. Pricing of full-frame cameras alone is not enough to kill the APS-C camera.

Pentax might do better to focus on "small and awesome" rather than the industry-leading-features slugfest. It worked for Olympus with the OM-1 and before that it worked with 35mm rangefinders when they suddenly got smaller.
09-18-2010, 04:01 AM   #118
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I'm not worried by the K5/D7000 trolleroonie bore-athon since I won't be able to afford either. Besides, technology is moving so fast I'd prefer to update more frequently at the Kx/Kr level to gain access to the best of new sensors. And it's at this level that Pentax will succeed or fail, imho. The entry or near-entry level is where the crucial numbers come from for a mainstream camera company and if that company cannot make the numbers work then it won't stay in business for very long.

FF is a sideshow by comparison, with nothing like enough volume to keep running the production lines of an outfit with thousands of employees. If you were charged with finding a way to pay that kind of salary bill, which would look more attractive: a production run of 15,000 FF cameras or one of 650,000 entry-level DSLRs or EVIL cameras? One day FF may not be a sideshow, but today it is. The reason is financial, not technological.

Last edited by mecrox; 09-18-2010 at 04:07 AM.
09-18-2010, 06:13 AM   #119
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
I'm not worried by the K5/D7000 trolleroonie bore-athon since I won't be able to afford either. Besides, technology is moving so fast I'd prefer to update more frequently at the Kx/Kr level to gain access to the best of new sensors. And it's at this level that Pentax will succeed or fail, imho. The entry or near-entry level is where the crucial numbers come from for a mainstream camera company and if that company cannot make the numbers work then it won't stay in business for very long.

FF is a sideshow by comparison, with nothing like enough volume to keep running the production lines of an outfit with thousands of employees. If you were charged with finding a way to pay that kind of salary bill, which would look more attractive: a production run of 15,000 FF cameras or one of 650,000 entry-level DSLRs or EVIL cameras? One day FF may not be a sideshow, but today it is. The reason is financial, not technological.
Yeah, I guess the $10,000 645D is a high volume camera and a FF Pentax DSLR that works with 24 million FF K mount lenses would not be.
09-18-2010, 08:32 AM   #120
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QuoteOriginally posted by jogiba Quote
Yeah, I guess the $10,000 645D is a high volume camera and a FF Pentax DSLR that works with 24 million FF K mount lenses would not be.
It might be that Pentax is able to sell more if that $10 000 camera than they would sell a $2300 FF camera....
That is the real (open) question.
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