Originally posted by Pål Jensen The Pentax won't loose single sale to Hasselblad.....
Pål, I think you miss an important point.
Pentax has already lost
all sales to Blad, P1, Leica & Co. Their MF sale was zero prior to 645D.
The entire market is said to be 10,000 units/y and write-off period is about 3 to 4 years, possibly increasing to 20,000 units/y with falling prices (from P1 own analysis, Leica computes 20,000 units TAM. P1 computes 100,000
possible buyers). The yearly 645D production is said to be 6000. Anyone of the competitors can be assumed to sell less.
So, what Pentax has to achieve is the following move:
P1: 50%
Blad: 50%
S2: 0%
645D: 0%
10k units/y
to
P1: 25%
Blad: 25%
S2: 20%
645D: 30%
20k units/y
within just 1 year. I don't say the 645D isn't a great camera and argueably the best MF. I say that the target is agressive and Pentax is slow in turning opportunity into success. If they don't change pace, it won't work out as we all wish.
And even 6000/y at 700k yen (street price is 750k yen) are 50 M$ turnover which is what a 150 people machine engineering company in Germany would be.
So, we have/y:
Phone cameras: 500,000,000
P&S cameras: 100,000,000
APS SLR cameras: 10,000,000
FF SLR cameras: 700,000 (my guess)
MF SLR cameras: 20,000 (or less)
Last edited by falconeye; 09-30-2010 at 04:07 AM.
Reason: error in total vs. yearly market