[Asahiflex]

They agressively position the H4D-31 against the 645D. They definitely decided to fight back! Their sales pitch was: make sure your medium format has central shutter option, a removable viewfinder and just feels right in your hands... Obviously exactly where the H4D differs from a 645D.

I wish them much luck selling their 'Blad. They definitely cater to different people; if I were looking for a 645D then a Hasselblad would not be an option for me. Have you seen the H4D lens prices?

BTW, I have the feeling that Pentax soon will come with a cheaper 645D. Like the K-r in the K system, so maybe even without sealing. And I think they should, because they have ruled out FF and the gap between the K-5 and the 645D is too large.

[gazonk]

I have used the hasselblad H2 and H4 in the field and I know plenty of photographers who do

I saw a photographer using a Hasselblad in Saturnia a couple of years ago. But it came with a bikini lady who carried the tethered Powerbook for him while they were wading through the hot waters

[Digitalis]

I saw a photographer using a Hasselblad in Saturnia a couple of years ago. But it came with a bikini lady who carried the tethered Powerbook for him while they were wading through the hot waters

lucky bastard, I wish my female assistant would wear a bikini to work

[falconeye]

The Pentax won't loose single sale to Hasselblad.....

Pål, I think you miss an important point.

Pentax has already lost all sales to Blad, P1, Leica & Co. Their MF sale was zero prior to 645D.

The entire market is said to be 10,000 units/y and write-off period is about 3 to 4 years, possibly increasing to 20,000 units/y with falling prices (from P1 own analysis, Leica computes 20,000 units TAM. P1 computes 100,000 possible buyers). The yearly 645D production is said to be 6000. Anyone of the competitors can be assumed to sell less.

So, what Pentax has to achieve is the following move:

P1: 50%
Blad: 50%
S2: 0%
645D: 0%
10k units/y

to

P1: 25%
Blad: 25%
S2: 20%
645D: 30%
20k units/y

within just 1 year. I don't say the 645D isn't a great camera and argueably the best MF. I say that the target is agressive and Pentax is slow in turning opportunity into success. If they don't change pace, it won't work out as we all wish.

And even 6000/y at 700k yen (street price is 750k yen) are 50 M$ turnover which is what a 150 people machine engineering company in Germany would be.


So, we have/y:

Phone cameras: 500,000,000
P&S cameras: 100,000,000
APS SLR cameras: 10,000,000
FF SLR cameras: 700,000 (my guess)
MF SLR cameras: 20,000 (or less)

---

Last edited by falconeye; 09-30-2010 at 04:07 AM. Reason: error in total vs. yearly market

[rparmar]

I saw a photographer using a Hasselblad in Saturnia a couple of years ago. But it came with a bikini lady who carried the tethered Powerbook for him while they were wading through the hot waters

See, that's what I mean by Hasselblad providing a very complete system package.

[rparmar]

I say that the target is agressive and Pentax is slow in turning opportunity into success.

Now that has to be the understatement of the week!

If Pentax does not promptly release at least:
* a 35mm or similar lens (architecture/landscape)
* a 120mm macro (portrait, macro, general studio)
* a tilt/shift adapter

Then they have nothing to offer the competition. Potential buyers will simply not consider them, since they will be unable to achieve their photographic goals. Any possible advantages the body has will be completely irrelevant.

I am quite surprised that the above kit has not already been pre-announced. Or rather, I would be surprised except we are talking about Hoya here.

If I ruled Hoya I'd release the 645D + 35mm + tilt/shift as a kit with viewfinder accessory etc. and saturation market the architecture / landscape crowds. This would definitely steal sales from SLR users, for those working professionally who want to move up. But it would be competing with the $4500 package of the Canon EOS-5D II and TS-E 24/3.5L II lens. And the slightly cheaper Nikon D700 plus Nikkor 24mm f/3.5D ED.

(Yes, I am planning on how to spend the next lottery win. )

[gazonk]

If Pentax does not promptly release at least:
* a 35mm or similar lens (architecture/landscape)
* a 120mm macro (portrait, macro, general studio)
* a tilt/shift adapter

Huh? They have both of the first two lenses! That's the strength of the 645D - most of the lenses are still in production (and have been for sale in Japan all these years). I see that Chris Willson has started using the excellent FA645 35mm: Umeda Sky Building, Osaka, Japan | Flickr - Photo Sharing!

[ogl]

Now that has to be the understatement of the week!

If Pentax does not promptly release at least:
* a 35mm or similar lens (architecture/landscape)
* a 120mm macro (portrait, macro, general studio)
* a tilt/shift adapter

FA645 35/3.5 is one of the best 645 lens.

[falconeye]

FA645 35/3.5 is one of the best 645 lens.

I don't question that.

Just one remark though.

The test classifies 34 lp/mm as excellent. But this translates to 2244 LW/PH (for the 33x44mm sensor) only, not exactly on par with the sensor's 7264 x 5440 resolution (5440 translate to 82 lp/mm which they didn't even measure at f/8 in the center). OTOH, I know nothing about their testing, so I'll draw no conclusion. I'm sure it's a great lens

One must be a bit careful in citing old tests.



And I hope my earlier post didn't give this thread a negative tone. The 645D is a wonderful camera. It's just not w/o peers anymore.

[ManuH]

If Pentax is serious about this market.

That's the big question. The slow release of the 645D doesn't seem to indicate that they want to aggressively overtake the MF market. It looks like more a sideline for them which is a bit normal considering that their APS-C market is much more lucrative.

BTW, I have the feeling that Pentax soon will come with a cheaper 645D. Like the K-r in the K system, so maybe even without sealing

I don't think so, the body probably costs next to nothing compared to the sensor. Let's say it costs 1000$ and the sensor is 5000$. Buiding a 500$ body around a 5000$ sensor will not make much difference in the final price.

[falconeye]

Let's say it costs 1000$ and the sensor is 5000$.

Kodak is probably overcharging the MF sensor due to low volume. But I don't think Pentax pays more than $2500. I once computed that if made in volume, a digital MF sensor could be made for $500 and sold for $1000. Of course, volume won't ever happen for cameras as large as MF. There are probably 50,000 phone camera chips per MF chip

[Asahiflex]

I don't think so, the body probably costs next to nothing compared to the sensor. Let's say it costs 1000$ and the sensor is 5000$. Buiding a 500$ body around a 5000$ sensor will not make much difference in the final price.

So you are suggesting that it's a bad idea to compete with Hasselblad with a new downspecced 645D with the same 31MP sensor as in the H4D-31?

But indeed - the worldwide release of the 645D was too slow. I have the feeling that the Pentax under Hoya is getting more and more Japan-centric.

[ManuH]

Kodak is probably overcharging the MF sensor due to low volume. But I don't think Pentax pays more than $2500.

It seems possible to find out the Price if one is willing to contact Kodak... But we don't know if Pentax made a deal with them. I seem to recall an interview where Pentax said it was around 5000$ but couldn't find reference to it. That seems possible for such a low volume high tech. What we know sure it that it's below 9000$

So you are suggesting that it's a bad idea to compete with Hasselblad with a new downspecced 645D with the same 31MP sensor as in the H4D-31?

The 31MP sensor is already obsolete, it's too close from FF. It seems to me that Blad is trying to dump old stock. That said if the 2500$ figure given by Falk is correct, they could cripple a model to be sold around 5000-6000$. That would go into high-end FF territory. But to me it would seem more clever to drop the price on the current 645D when a new model would be released with even higher resolution (50MP+).

But indeed - the worldwide release of the 645D was too slow.

The 645D is already late. If they were very serious about that market they would have released it years ago. In 2008 it seemed very close to release before the Hoya buyout. But they had higher priorities for their bottom line.

[Pål Jensen]

Pål, I am not following your thinking.

First, comparing features that medium format shooters need/want to those SLR shooters need/want is rather inappropriate. With leaf shutters at 1/800s the Hasselblads can do things no SLR can, and this would be important to all sorts of pros trying to stop action with studio lighting. If Pentax suddenly had 1/800s flash sync you can bet people would be jumping up and down with excitement!

Not at all. The Pentax 645D is a DSLR; nothing more nothing less. It is a field camera designed for outdoor use. Pentax have never made studio cameras.
Pentax do have a standard lens for the 645 with leaf shutter.

[Pål Jensen]

Pål, I think you miss an important point.

Pentax has already lost all sales to Blad, P1, Leica & Co. Their MF sale was zero prior to 645D.

The entire market is said to be 10,000 units/y and write-off period is about 3 to 4 years, possibly increasing to 20,000 units/y with falling prices (from P1 own analysis,

Hardly a single poptential buyer for the 645D would consider a Hasseblad or a Mamiya. Pentax have lost sales to Nikon and Canon FF.
The entire MF digital market last year was 6000 units; it is on a downward spiral (no wonder).