[MetteHHH]

...
So... using my experiences, I'd say historic lows are reached about 3-5 months before the next camera body is officially announced by Pentax. That said, I would bet world economy, exchange rates and more will profoundly affect what actually happens. But I'd feel pretty safe to jump in when people start posting what seem to be semi-credible lists of K-3 features on the Web; that first moment when it seems the k-5 might not be top dog anymore.

Just my two cents.

Germar, +1. I just LOVE advice that simultaneously helps me pick a low price point AND helps me justify buying a k5 a little earlier! That must be almost the _definition_ of good advice!

[betaPhoto]

Actually, no. I bought my K20D and my K7 at the low price points for those cameras ... which was when the first real buzz about the next camera started to appear in this site's rumor section! By "real buzz" I mean fairly credible reports coming from Japan about sensor size, buffer rate and so on ... concrete technical stuff, not just someones wish list of fantasy features. At that point both cameras hit really good prices that I had to jump on. In both cases they proved to be historic lows.

So... using my experiences, I'd say historic lows are reached about 3-5 months before the next camera body is officially announced by Pentax. That said, I would bet world economy, exchange rates and more will profoundly affect what actually happens. But I'd feel pretty safe to jump in when people start posting what seem to be semi-credible lists of K-3 features on the Web; that first moment when it seems the k-5 might not be top dog anymore.

A good observation, thanks for the insight!

Also, I have noticed those low prices are again matched about 2 months after a new model is released. It appears Pentax wants to move the old inventory through the system about then. It doesn't seem to last very long and then most of the cameras are gone...

Right now, both the K-7 and K-x are at there lowest price point again. Anyone looking to buy the old model, this is your chance at a good price.

I also bought a K20D 2 months after the K-7 was released and it was at its lowest price point then.

[sandilands]

The USD continues to fall against its largest foreign trading partner, despite the intervention of the Bank of Canada. I expect to see it fall at least another 20% over the year. Some tech products (not necessarily Pentax) are now cheaper in Canada even when converted to USD. Not sure why, but I think Asian manufacturers and distributors are looking for more stable currencies than USD and even EUR, and the CAD seems to be the current darling.

[bobmaxja]

Because CAD have not lost value versus Yen in2010
. The USD lost 20% against the Yen

[Beau]

FYI: K-5's price in the Netherlands has been very stable so far

[timh]

Japanese prices just jumped up a bit... Supply problems? Increased confidence? End of January sales?
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Happily I just bought mine at the low point, clearly I'm a genius and should start trading stock or something.

[sandilands]

Because CAD have not lost value versus Yen in2010
. The USD lost 20% against the Yen

Exactly. Asians are buying CAD. It's interesting to watch the ratio of USD/CAD from Friday night (after North American Markets close). Asian markets open on Sunday, and the ratio drops like crazy. On Monday morning EST, the Bank of Canada starts buying USD in an attempt to keep a favorable balance of trade with the US, so the ratio rises. I wish I had $$$ to back up this observation in real terms, but I need to save to buy a K-5

Bottom line... I need to watch K-5 pricing in Canada, haul butt across the border to Vistek (currently $1599 CAD) on Friday at 16:15 EST, buy and smuggle it back to the US

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Last edited by sandilands; 01-25-2011 at 08:05 AM.

[GregK8]

I don't see the price of the K-5 going down much past $1300 over the long term. It's really held its own over the first three months and I think with the combination of strong demand due to the positive press and the need for replacements due to the staining issue, the price will stay where it is. B&H has been sold out several times over the past month and it just took them over a week to get more stock in. So as long as supply is less than demand, the price will stay where it's at.

[dankoBanana]

I don't see the price of the K-5 going down much past $1300 over the long term. It's really held its own over the first three months and I think with the combination of strong demand due to the positive press and the need for replacements due to the staining issue, the price will stay where it is. B&H has been sold out several times over the past month and it just took them over a week to get more stock in. So as long as supply is less than demand, the price will stay where it's at.

I agree
+ expect a surge in demand once the AF issue gets fixed

and only god knows what would happen if by some divine intervention they released a firmware allowing full manual controls in video mode 3 months from now (actually, this sounds like a great idea to keep the demand up and thus keep the price up too)

[GlennG]

Very interesting input, all. At this point, two huge forces seem aligned to maintaining high prices. First, the K-5 appears to be a killer-good camera. So good that it is hard to imagine any cropped sensor camera actually beating it to any significant degree, at least this year. And, from several of you, it sounds lilke there are firmware updates possible that might improve it even further. Both professional reviews and user reviews indicate the k-5 is ALL THAT. Second, (and no, I'm not the economist!) with a weak US economy, I believe the markets and US policy makers would prefer a very weak dollar, encouraging exports over imports. While I may wish for a $1100 K-5 in 2011, I currently feel doubtful that we'll see that price this year.

[sandilands]

Very interesting input, all. At this point, two huge forces seem aligned to maintaining high prices. First, the K-5 appears to be a killer-good camera. So good that it is hard to imagine any cropped sensor camera actually beating it to any significant degree, at least this year. And, from several of you, it sounds lilke there are firmware updates possible that might improve it even further. Both professional reviews and user reviews indicate the k-5 is ALL THAT. Second, (and no, I'm not the economist!) with a weak US economy, I believe the markets and US policy makers would prefer a very weak dollar, encouraging exports over imports. While I may wish for a $1100 K-5 in 2011, I currently feel doubtful that we'll see that price this year.

Yup! Until the Chinese let their currency trade at real market value, the US Fed will continue to up the pressure by devaluing dead presidents. IOW until Pentax discontinues the K-5, don't expect to see any significant price reductions. Pentax does have a competitive problem (in terms of price) with the D7000. Expect them to address that with bundling rebates and similar tricks rather than dropping the price of the K-5 body.

[Stringmike]

It probably won't have a major effect on the USA or Canada, but there is a general consensus forming that the Euro is overvalued and will gradually descend back to parity with the US dollar. This will probably also result in a 15% to 20% devaluation with respect to the Yen.

I suggest that our European friends buy soon!

Mike

[ghelary]

It probably won't have a major effect on the USA or Canada, but there is a general consensus forming that the Euro is overvalued and will gradually descend back to parity with the US dollar. This will probably also result in a 15% to 20% devaluation with respect to the Yen.

I suggest that our European friends buy soon!

Mike

It's a bit wishfull thinking, given the fact that "experts" have so often been proven wrong.

At the moment, the federal state in the USA have to deal with the massive dept caused by 2 wars, some massive tax cuts during Bush administration and the explostion of the housing bubble causing at the same a massive banking and economical crisis. Many experts (and foreign countries holding reserves in dollar) fear a move to erase the dept like Nixon cut of the gold standard. Given the fact that more dollar are held outside of the US than inside, if a massive devaluation occurs, that would mean that the burden of the dept would be supported by foreigners. Or as the saying goes :"The dollar my money, your problem".

On the side of Japan, there is a massive dept too, but mostly held by Japanese people and institutions. Japan hold their interest rates at the lowest level to try to keep their money low and be competive for export.

Then there is Europe, Europe is weak politically, and European governments can't agree on anything at the moment, but in fact, this shall protect the central bank from external pressure. And the central bank have very clear mission: contain inflation. That mean maintaining the buying power of Euro. They do not have as mission to maitain growth like in the US. Sure there are some peripherical countries in trouble, but if we look at individual states in the US, this is also the case, not the least being California. And if gold matters (as it always do in times of crisis) the cumulated reserves of France, Italy and Germany are about the same the reserves of USA.

So, no, I don't think Euro is gonna devaluate against Dollar very soon.

[sandilands]

It's a bit wishfull thinking, given the fact that "experts" have so often been proven wrong.

At the moment, the federal state in the USA have to deal with the massive debt.

On the side of Japan, there is a massive debt too, but mostly held by Japanese people

European governments can't agree on anything ... the central bank have very clear mission: contain inflation... maintaining the buying power of Euro. They do not have as mission to maitain growth like in the US.

So back to the issue of buying a camera, the value of the USD will decline putting upwards pressure on Asian based prices. The European Central Bank will defend the value of the EUR - thus no weakening of Asian based pricing there. A few minor currencies particularly with resource (including gold) foundations will do well, but with little buying impact on Asian pricing = nothing to be gained there.

I still think the exception will be CAD. A resource based minor currency, but so tightly linked to the US economy. Expect to see the CAD/USD to go from 1 (now) to 1.3 or 1.5 within the next year. If that happens, the greater buying power of the CAD in the US, AND its geographical proximity will mean the real cost of a K-5 in CAD will go down in lock step with the CAD/USD ratio or to under $1000. Good if you currently own Loonies (slang for CAD).

[ghelary]

So back to the issue of buying a camera, the value of the USD will decline putting upwards pressure on Asian based prices. The European Central Bank will defend the value of the EUR - thus no weakening of Asian based pricing there. A few minor currencies particularly with resource (including gold) foundations will do well, but with little buying impact on Asian pricing = nothing to be gained there.

I still think the exception will be CAD. A resource based minor currency, but so tightly linked to the US economy. Expect to see the CAD/USD to go from 1 (now) to 1.3 or 1.5 within the next year. If that happens, the greater buying power of the CAD in the US, AND its geographical proximity will mean the real cost of a K-5 in CAD will go down in lock step with the CAD/USD ratio or to under $1000. Good if you currently own Loonies (slang for CAD).

Yes this is possible, since Canada had much more discipline in budgetary policy. Currently foreign counrty owning Dollars and institutions are looking to diversify their reserves. Hence the raising in value of "secondary" money like, CAD or Brazilian real. One have to remember that weak money= strong exportations, high inflation, low consumption, and strong money= weak exportations, low inflation and higher consuption. If the contry economy is more based on the internal market than on exportations, then a strong money can be a better choice in hard times than a weak one.