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01-15-2011, 11:13 AM   #1
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K-5 Price Going Forward

What will the K-5 price do over the course of the next year? What do you think it will do? Many of us here presume there will be some price erosion as months pass - all the prior models have declined in price compared to release price. But I wonder if K-5 will actually be different and retain its price nearer to release price - best in class, best sensor, best ergonomics, great size, better than direct competitors, etc.


I just read this interview article, provided by a member here:


Imaging Resource Interview: John Carlson, Pentax Imaging


The text includes this section (DE is Dave Etchells of Imaging Resource):

DE: The Pentax K-5 got quite a boost among enthusiasts, when DXO published their score for dynamic range on it: It really was about the best in the market. Have you seen that actually translate into sales? Did you see a bump from that?
Carlson: There's a huge demand for that camera, where it's kind of exceeded our expectations to the point that there are backorders. I mean, it's a good and bad situation to have. There's enough demand worldwide where production is, you know -- it takes so long to build a camera, and you can only build so many.
DE: That's very interesting. That's not a cheap camera, it's really the high end of your line -- so you're seeing strong demand for Pentax in the high end enthusiast market.
Carlson: Definitely, definitely.



So...how do you think this will relate to K-5 prices going forward? Will K-5 prices sustain themselves at a high level, or decline like prior models?

Some of us here have an upgrade" strategy of "buy glass now, and then get the K-5 later after prices have gone down". I don't like that strategy if K-5 prices don't go down.

01-15-2011, 11:19 AM   #2
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My feeling is price will not drop that much in the USA because of the weak USD. Canon just annonce prioce increase in the USA between 5-10% for many products. I suppose Nikon will follow
01-15-2011, 11:28 AM   #3
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This is a nice thing to see.

Blue line = average price, red line = lowest price.
I suspect prices internationally will always stay higher but the drop will follow a similar pattern with a month or two of lag.

I've been waiting for it to dip below 95000 since November, so now is the time for my source to acquire one.
01-15-2011, 12:49 PM   #4
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I am planning on getting the K5. Right now, you can get it for around 1350.00. That is the lowest price I have found on Nex-Tag. I am hoping that the price will drop to about 1200 by the time I am ready to by.

01-15-2011, 12:57 PM   #5
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So hard to know. I think the floor on the K5 is probably around 900 dollars (just guessing), but it will take quite awhile to get down there. The issue is that Pentax is selling lots of the cameras and also replacing a lot of defective cameras. Until they can keep up with demand, there is no point in their dropping the price from their perspective.
01-15-2011, 01:27 PM   #6
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I'm guessing that the k-5 doesn't have a huge amount of margin in it's price. I'm guessing that unless the yen vs. the currency of the parts suppliers and place of manufacturing becomes very favorable, the weak dollar will prevent much of a price drop until the k-5 is on clearance.

With previous models, getting the supply chain at normal levels was worth about $100 off, age was worth about $100 off, and clearance was worth about $100 off.

With the k-5, it's looking like roughly half that, so maybe 1360 by the 12 month mark, 1250 by the time it's replacement is announced.
01-15-2011, 01:27 PM   #7
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Thanks, all. I appreciate the dialogue and perspective. I have a strike price of about $1100, and was hoping it would achieve that by about Christmas 2011. But who knows - depends on a lot of factors.

Glenn
01-15-2011, 02:10 PM   #8
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Here is another thought.

Given the debt crisis in Europe and the infusion of stimulus money in the U.S. there is the potential for severe inflation in Euro and U. S. dollar prices of the K-5. It happened in the U.S. in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The rate of inflation was almost 20% per year for a while.

01-15-2011, 02:11 PM   #9
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For various reasons, I don't think the K-5 is going to follow the pricing path we've come to think of as 'normal'.

I was going to buy at $1,200 USD but just couldn't restrain myself (I'm glad I didn't wait, btw: it's an amazing camera!)

I'll try to hold out for that price on my 2nd copy but I won't wait forever.
01-15-2011, 02:36 PM   #10
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The K5 I believe hits all the sweet spots in functionality that the market wants. There are items that - Yes, could be better, but this would be an upgrade for essentially everyone. That said, I am hoping that the price breaks $1,000 sometime this year, however with the stain issue, regardless of who's fault it is, will eat in to Pentax's margin, and thus will probably maintain the prices higher than what would be expected. This along with the "non-existent inflation" inflation of the dollar, I will be patiently waiting for the price and the contents of my "camera fund" to equal each other. On the other hand, I do have a feeling that the K5 will hit $800 as it is benign replaced with the K3 - which would really be my number.

It doesn't hurt to have a well functioning K20 to hold me over....

01-15-2011, 04:01 PM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by foxhead Quote
Here is another thought.

Given the debt crisis in Europe and the infusion of stimulus money in the U.S. there is the potential for severe inflation in Euro and U. S. dollar prices of the K-5. It happened in the U.S. in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The rate of inflation was almost 20% per year for a while.
In that case, we'd have a lot more to worry about than the price of a K-5
01-15-2011, 10:34 PM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by foxhead Quote
Here is another thought.

Given the debt crisis in Europe and the infusion of stimulus money in the U.S. there is the potential for severe inflation in Euro and U. S. dollar prices of the K-5. It happened in the U.S. in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The rate of inflation was almost 20% per year for a while.
When the whole world believes the dollar will continue to drop in value, you can be assured the dollar is done dropping in value.

If it is so, and the dollar rises for some time (like 1 to 1.5 years), we may well see prices come down just like in 2008...

and a few fine lens purchases as those prices fall...
01-16-2011, 08:32 AM   #13
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My guess is that you will be able to pick up a K-5 at $1000 by end of Summer. If you can wait, should be a good time to buy one. If you can't wait....buy one now at nearly full pop since first release.

Jason
01-16-2011, 08:57 AM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by Jasvox Quote
If you can wait, should be a good time to buy one. If you can't wait....buy one now at nearly full pop since first release.
I can wait, but, the itch is really itching!

Glenn
01-16-2011, 09:06 AM   #15
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I am doing my best to hold off also. I could get it now, and pay it off, but I would rather just pay cash for it and a battery grip, I don't know if I can wait till the end of summer though. I think by the end of April will be my breaking point.
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