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03-01-2011, 11:41 AM   #481
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you're being stubborn Aristophanes, his point is that for the mass market we may have already reached the needs of the mass market. it is good enough for most needs. Not all which is why they will continue to make SLR type cameras for those of us who want/need them but we will not be the majority. we weren't in the past and won't be in the future. As for people having an slr and a smaller system, some will. however i think you would find in the past the majority abandoned their slr completely and this will probably happen again. if you aren't vested with thousands in high end glass (and most aren't they use kit lenses) then switching to a smaller system with a couple of kit lenses or only one kit lens is wholly likely.

Pal I think you will be proven wrong as well. for the enthsiast/pro the demand will be more and more for full frame. and if a canon drops an entry level (ie $12-1500) FF even if it is a plastick rebel it will change the market and everyone will have to move to compete, and they will. this will squeeze apsc out of this price level where it currently reigns. Pentax will either have to respond with a full frame k1 or whatever or resign themselves to a diminishing market for their SLRS, i don't see them doing that (though Olympus pretty much abandoned their SLR customers for the most part during the 90's up to 4/3 with at most one model generally available. so it's within the realm of possibility)

03-01-2011, 11:45 AM   #482
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Mine are precious. I like them excellent, like a Limited lens.
Now that you've advertised them this way and contrasted them to mine so sharply, I'm quite curious to see them. After all I've published mine and you've apparently deemed them "maybe good enough".

Are those in the gallery your best selection, or do you have them published elsewhere? Preferably taken with those Limited lenses of yours.

QuoteQuote:
So you go ahead, stand on the soapbox and speak to the "good enough" of a downgrade to the inferior m43 sensor format for Pentaxians so they can be like "most people".
lol, what you call "most people" in an arrogant tone is actually called "the market" and is what Pentax will likely try to aim at. This has been explained to you different ways in this thread, but I don't think you're very good at comprehending that.

QuoteQuote:
I can see Pentax's marketing for its MILC: Good enough for most people
In which case, thank God you don't work for Pentax's marketing.

Last edited by juu; 03-01-2011 at 11:53 AM.
03-01-2011, 11:51 AM   #483
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QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
I really like being part of an enthusiast community on this forum but sometimes I think we are blind to the mass market. we are not the mass market we are a subset who are more demanding. the mass market are snapshooters (it always was that's why brownies did so well 55+ years back)
I think you're right, and...

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Market saturation now takes far longer than it did way back when because the developing world's middle class is nascent and so much bigger.
...given that inflation seems to be bringing these economies down to earth a bit, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw special markets with older or possibly unique models appearing. Meanwhile...

QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
population in 81 was a shade over 4.5 billion, this year it is forecast to pass 7 billion
...the developed world's middle class market has probably been declining for twenty-five years both in real income terms and in the numbers who are now retired. Japan's way out in the lead in this trend, but several European nations and even Canada are on the same course.

Plenty of demographic balls in the air in addition to everything else that's going on. I say it again: interesting times.

QuoteOriginally posted by juu Quote
If that's your argument for the need for higher and higher resolution pictures, you need to rethink it.
May I suggest the 8"x10" photo book? 8.6MP would seem to cover that at 300DPI.

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Maybe your photos are "good enough", too. Mine are precious.
Sheesh, you two!
03-01-2011, 11:53 AM   #484
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QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
you're being stubborn Aristophanes, his point is that for the mass market we may have already reached the needs of the mass market. it is good enough for most needs. Not all which is why they will continue to make SLR type cameras for those of us who want/need them but we will not be the majority. we weren't in the past and won't be in the future. As for people having an slr and a smaller system, some will. however i think you would find in the past the majority abandoned their slr completely and this will probably happen again. if you aren't vested with thousands in high end glass (and most aren't they use kit lenses) then switching to a smaller system with a couple of kit lenses or only one kit lens is wholly likely.
People are buying DSLR's because they are DSLR and not in spite of it. They buy it because it is a dedicated tool for "serious" photography and not just an accesory like a P&S. The size is not a problem; often the opposite - a tool needs to be a certain size to be comfortable.
There has been excellent digital cameras before there even were DSLR's, or at least before they became affordable; this has not made the DSLR less popular. Most DSLR owner own lenses that do not cover more focal lenghts than what some P&S does. The fact that you can get non-DSLR with interchangeable lenses now is irrelevant, as the optical finder (along with an electronic one) of a DSLR is not a problem.

03-01-2011, 11:57 AM   #485
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QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
however i think you would find in the past the majority abandoned their slr completely and this will probably happen again
That's exactly the point of the anecdotes I was sharing a couple of pages ago. One of the things that seems to be driving it this time 'round is that the f'n mobile phones are way out in the lead when it comes to sharing photos and doing countless other fun things.
03-01-2011, 12:04 PM   #486
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QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
Pal I think you will be proven wrong as well. for the enthsiast/pro the demand will be more and more for full frame. and if a canon drops an entry level (ie $12-1500) FF even if it is a plastick rebel it will change the market and everyone will have to move to compete, and they will. this will squeeze apsc out of this price level where it currently reigns. Pentax will either have to respond with a full frame k1 or whatever or resign themselves to a diminishing market for their SLRS, i don't see them doing that (though Olympus pretty much abandoned their SLR customers for the most part during the 90's up to 4/3 with at most one model generally available. so it's within the realm of possibility)
1) There are no signs that the consumers demands FF. They don't; it is niche of the market that is smaller than MF was for film.
2) There are no signs that FF sensors will be cheap anytime soon. If an FF camera sells for $1500 it will firstly make little impact as that kind of money is way out of leage for the mass consumer. Secondly it will indicate that a similar specced APS camera will cost $300. This means that the latter will sell 100 times more.
3) You forget that lens cost for FF is way larger for similar magnifications. Today an APS shooter can have lighweight camera with two cheap kit lenses and cover focal lenghts from strong wide angle to a 500mm (in 35mm terms) telephoto. Try that in the film days.
4) The smallers sensors deliver more than the consumer demands image quality-wise. Yesterdays cameras will be even better.
5) theres no pressure on APS. It is the dominant format for DSLR's. FF is under pressure because APS is good enough even for most professional usage.
6) Price and profitability will always drive the market. Smaller sensors will be cheaper . The manufacturers will not reinvent the market by adding more expensive key components (sensor) as long as the ones they use meets the demand. This is counterproductive for profitability.
7) Digital makes it possible to make things smaller. This is the way the market will go and the direction pressure will be targeted. Larger formats will be niche.
03-01-2011, 12:14 PM   #487
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QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
you're being stubborn Aristophanes, his point is that for the mass market we may have already reached the needs of the mass market.
We did with APS-C. And before that from FF 135. Why downgrade again to the inferior m43 sensor?

All the sales data and Flickr data and that retro posting using the PopPhoto data say the same thing!

We do not all need a 645d, and many are happy with compacts, but if you're going to spend $1,500 on a body and lens quiver, your're going to take into account IQ.

That's the whole point of almost ALL ILC lenses!!! Why damage that quest with an inferior sensor. Simply put: that argument has not been made for Pentax. They have a vast APS-C and FF lens base. They survived the move to digital. So why throw out the baby AND the bathwater?

There is zero business case for Pentax to pay Olympus to use the inferior m43.
03-01-2011, 12:18 PM   #488
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but not to market to a milc system there is already a market and it looks like it will grow pretty dramatically. 2.5/2/1.5 crop is moot it is the smaller mirrorless conncept that they need to market to. I agree joining Oly/Pana may not be the right choice, and likely it won't happen. i think following Nikon would possibly be the smarter move

03-01-2011, 12:22 PM   #489
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
People are buying DSLR's because they are DSLR and not in spite of it. They buy it because it is a dedicated tool for "serious" photography and not just an accesory like a P&S. The size is not a problem; often the opposite - a tool needs to be a certain size to be comfortable.
I think this is true to a certain degree; for example the Canon S95 is too small IMO. I think the Panasonic LX5 is a better size for a compact camera. As far as DSLR's; I know a lot of people with entry level DSLR's and not a single one of them bought theirs because it was larger than their P&S camera. In-fact, quite the opposite. Not a single one of my friends or family members is happy about the size of their DSLR's, but they wanted something that produced better image quality and focused faster than their P&S's. My mother is one of those people (she has a Sony A-200). She's already said it will be her last DSLR. I showed her my Olympus E-P1 and she absolutely loved it. It was exactly what she wanted when she got her A-200; they just didn't exist at the time.

Now the exception to this is serious shooters. One of my "photographer" friends doesn't think his D700 is large enough, he prefers the D3. I can see his point to some degree, the D3 is a very comfortable camera to use for studio work; but I would never under any circumstances lug something like that or even a D700-size camera around with me outside of the studio. I'm willing to bet I'm in the majority on that one. A camera the size of a the Fuji X100 is perfectly comfortable to hold and use all day long, and won't break your back when you throw it in your bag. If someone would rather lug around a K-7 have at it; but I am done with bulbous DSLR's for good.
03-01-2011, 12:37 PM   #490
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
People are buying DSLR's because they are DSLR and not in spite of it. They buy it because it is a dedicated tool for "serious" photography and not just an accesory like a P&S. The size is not a problem; often the opposite - a tool needs to be a certain size to be comfortable.
When I was in Henry's about 6 months ago there was a guy trying out advanced ILC cameras (terminology not yet firmed up). He wanted a "serious camera" for "better photos".

He tried an m43, liked it, especially the video, but it was simply too small he said. He then tried an APS-C DSLR and "liked the grip". He was brand agnostic. He simply wanted a camera easier to hold than Panasonic's mini-thingy.

Bonus: The DSLR was $300 cheaper allowing him to buy a fast 50.

Bonus x2: He bought a better sensor. Period. DxO Marks says so. So did the salesman.

Me? I bought a gray card for my MF film camera because I lost my other one over the side of a canoe.

The point of my earlier retro post on the PopPhoto data is not that people "abandoned SLR". They did not. They simply did not gain from incremental improvements in the tech, which is why the Pentax K1000 sold so well for so long. They were built too durable. Later plastic models were subject to built-in obsolescence (like a certain Pentax lens line from an unspeakable era). Most people if they had an SLR also had a compact. As with today, each person in the family may have had a camera, 3-4 per household.

FF will come when sensor costs decrease. Right now capital investment in FF is not enough to drive the margin lower, though there is evidence Sony, Nikon, and Canon are prepared to crank up volume if need be. The NEX and A-mounts can both take FF so we see Sony's future-proofed itself. The efficiencies are not there for the Holy Grail of the $1,200 price point (D90). The efficiencies are there right now for APS-C. It's an extremely cost-effective sensor which is why we see US$375 kits, less than many compacts.

Digital sort of makes things smaller. The major impediment is a battery, AF, and IS. My Rollei was smaller shooting 135 than many P&S's today. In fact, today's equivalent is the somewhat largish Fuji X100.
03-01-2011, 01:02 PM   #491
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
When I was in Henry's about 6 months ago there was a guy trying out advanced ILC cameras...
lol I thought you were the guy who preferred research to anecdotes.

Or do you think if perhaps the anecdotes support your world view then they are worth relying on?
03-01-2011, 01:46 PM   #492
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QuoteOriginally posted by Art Vandelay II Quote
I think this is true to a certain degree; for example the Canon S95 is too small IMO.... If someone would rather lug around a K-7 have at it; but I am done with bulbous DSLR's for good.
Agree completely. Truthfully, I find my *istDS is a bit on the ungainly side, especially for something with a halfway viewfinder.

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Me? I bought a gray card for my MF film camera because I lost my other one over the side of a canoe.
Chortle!

BTW, the CIPA figures for January would seem to be out.
03-01-2011, 01:50 PM   #493
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still shipping over 4 times as many point shoots based on this as ILC.
03-01-2011, 01:56 PM   #494
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QuoteOriginally posted by eddie1960 Quote
still shipping over 4 times as many point shoots based on this as ILC.
And everything is sharply up. Look at the year-over-year growth in ILC's though for Japan and Europe. Could be the "recovery" but .. 150%?
03-01-2011, 02:07 PM   #495
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the prior year was pretty bad was it not. I left retail a long while back so can't comment on it
150% YOY is pretty damn big though

interestingly ilc has grown far more than point shoot everywhere but in the americas it is to a much smaller degree with only a 13 point spread in YOY vs the huge jump ilc made over point shoot in japan and europe (64 point and 78 point spread respectively) this does make sense when i was in europe in the fall and went into a few camera stores i was surprised by how prominent m43 and nex cameras were, they were getting better exposure in most shops than any slr. I would bet the further breakdown will show this was a large part of the difference in sales there
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