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03-03-2011, 08:04 AM   #511
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
The GH2 presents an m43 dilemma.
Good thread!

QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
As to whether or not Pentax does well, a lot has to do with style, rather than IQ. The kx was a big hit, not because of its amazing sensor and smash-bang features, but because of its many colors available. Particularly in the Japanese market, style is a big part of purchasing decisions.
The interface on the Kx is also good. Also, it doesn't hurt that the Kx came through on IQ. I could see the philosophy you describe extending that very well to North America. Look at how well the style-over-everything p&s's do.

03-03-2011, 01:18 PM   #512
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QuoteOriginally posted by uccemebug Quote
Look at how well the style-over-everything p&s's do.
Only problem is if they go the style over substance route that will leave people like me, and I presume most other people that take photography serious, out in the cold. I'm fine with a nicely styled camera, I love the PEN's and the Fuji X100, but those cameras can back up their design as tools a photographer can actually use (the Fuji more so than the PEN's from what I've seen so far). As far as mirrorless goes; I guess Pentax needs to decide if they want to be a poor mans Leica (which is what I'm hoping for), or a fashion accessory for Japanese gadget lovers and teenage girls in North America and Europe. If it's the latter they may do well, but sadly the last Pentax I'll own is my beloved LX (someone will have to pry that out of my cold dead hands to get it from me ).
03-03-2011, 02:07 PM   #513
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QuoteOriginally posted by Art Vandelay II Quote
As far as mirrorless goes; I guess Pentax needs to decide if they want to be a poor mans Leica
Shall we place our bets?

It sounds like the common ones are:
1a. ~2.5x fashion MILC
1b. 2.5x WR MILC
1c. 2.5x small-and-light MILC
2. 5.6x exotic MILC
3a. 2x (m4/3) system
3b. 2x (m4/3) lenses only
4a. E-mount system
4b. E-mount lenses only
5. 2.5x fixed-lens
6. >2.5x fixed-lens

Is that about it?
03-03-2011, 02:58 PM   #514
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
The GH2 presents an m43 dilemma.
Here's an interesting interview with Darin Pepple from Panasonic USA:

Imaging Resource Interview: Darin Pepple, Panasonic USA

He's saying that only 15-20% of the market wants a viewfinder (EVF or OVF) and that the GH style cameras with built in EVF will as a result be just a small part of their market strategy, with the bulk of their effort behind the more compact GF1/GF2 body styles because that's where they think the market is. He cites an audience of 23 million that want to step up from a P&S but don't want the bulk of a dSLR.

03-03-2011, 03:55 PM   #515
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QuoteOriginally posted by johnmflores Quote
He's saying that only 15-20% of the market wants a viewfinder (EVF or OVF) and that the GH style cameras with built in EVF will as a result be just a small part of their market strategy, with the bulk of their effort behind the more compact GF1/GF2 body styles because that's where they think the market is. He cites an audience of 23 million that want to step up from a P&S but don't want the bulk of a dSLR.
That are a lot of people who would buy a small system, and even a 2,5x crop sensor gives them a huge step forward in image quality.

So if Pentax could make a nice slize of the cake and sell one million that would be a big part of Pentax revenue.
03-03-2011, 05:04 PM   #516
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I have to say I'm personally very disappointed, I was hoping for a mirrorless solution i could use my current pentax lenses on. Such a small sensor size also have negative implications on IQ, so business wise it's hard to see how this would pit up against competition, especially when there are good premium P&S cameras like the LX5, S95 and others.
03-03-2011, 05:41 PM   #517
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QuoteOriginally posted by vincechu Quote
I have to say I'm personally very disappointed, I was hoping for a mirrorless solution i could use my current pentax lenses on. Such a small sensor size also have negative implications on IQ, so business wise it's hard to see how this would pit up against competition, especially when there are good premium P&S cameras like the LX5, S95 and others.
I too am little disappointed as I was hoping for 1.5 crop factor sensor or something like the Foveon sensor size to compete with the m43. However, that could also compete squarely on the k-5. On the other hand, it 2.5x crop sensor could compete handily with the current crop of G11/12, P7000 or S95.
03-03-2011, 06:22 PM   #518
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
The GH2 presents an m43 dilemma.
Snip...

They'll take a few routes. Sony may have shown the way, but I have no doubt Canikon have APS-C NEX-equivalents in the wings for 2011 release. Nikon and Pentax may even have a small sensor variant lurking. The biggest manufacturer issue is not design nor getting bodies/sensors/processors out, it's lenses.
I wonder about the G12 this year though. They have updated in Aug/Sep pretty much every year for the last three years. I wonder if there really is something new this year as last years model really was only a face lift.

03-03-2011, 07:12 PM   #519
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
That are a lot of people who would buy a small system, and even a 2,5x crop sensor gives them a huge step forward in image quality.

So if Pentax could make a nice slize of the cake and sell one million that would be a big part of Pentax revenue.
The argument for an even smaller sensor MILC goes like this:

Those upgrading from P&S want marginally more IQ and even more portability. Take a GH2, K-r, A55, and NX10 side-by-side and they all come from the same gene pool. Even with the mirrorless smaller lenses, there's not really a hug amount of compact difference between them. Mass, yes, but one knock against the Panasonic GH's is they feel not very rugged, like plastic toys even. Between the lot of them it's like choosing whether you like beards or moustaches (but not both because that is for FF).

Take an NEX, PEN, GF, or NX100 and they come from a distinctly different but related gene pool although they're not substantially that much smaller as to drive sales from P&S one might think because if that were true, products like the Canon G-series might have sold better, being about the same form factor. These are selling well for their newness, because they've gone all 1970's leatherette retro, and because the guys with $$$ (referenced below) wants/needs a 2nd system, but he's not telling his squeeze he has something on the side.

So if your target is P&S people who want some fashion splash, a small MILC with 2.x crop sensor in pretty colours will fit the bill nicely, because Thom Hogan knows nothing about what sells cameras to teenage girls in Tokyo.

That may be Pentax's angle, given the K-x scored fairly well in a dazzling array of Pantones. Still, the classic DSLR form factor made a lot of them look like lipstick on a pig. A smaller MILC really might turn eensy pancakes into jewel lenses...literally! Let's accessorize!

Now, the serious DSLR guy thinking about mirrorless has a different take. He wants good, usually fast, glass. The GH2 is a dilemma for this guy because it doesn't really offer a huge opportunity cost step up in portability, certainly not at the price of buying into a new, unproven, and software delimited lens mount (you know who I'm talkin' 'bout).

This guy is also worried about backwards compatibility for their f/2.8 "big boy" glass. They care (a lot) about sensor size because size matters and it is, after all, mostly testosterone we are speaking to here as an audience. It's hard to care about sensor size when your mount is micro.

This is the guy who is also going to spend some serious after-market $$$ on glass, flash, tripod, kit bag, and hide the receipts from his significant other who is hiding her receipts from some activity far more worthwhile and productive to society. So the GH2 is a problem for this guy because it is a lot of $$$, doesn't make whoopie with his current lenses, and so on. This guy will possibly wait, might dabble in a smaller sensor pack-along (in manly black or Coast Guard/Old Spice red...unless color blind in which case he'll get yellow and pretend it's a fire engine hue), but he's not there yet and it's not out yet.

And he brings long-term brand loyalty (except on the internet forums), says sweet nothings to his mount every night promising a new prime experience soon honey, soon, and buys a new lens as often as Japanese bonus season allows, even if he is neither Japanese nor earns a bonus. This is the guy no one knowns how to sell mirrorless to but he is critical because he has carried the prosumer industry since it was in Leica-brand diapers. He'll let go his vanity and go mirrorless, but only if he sees someone else do it.

We have met the enemy, and he is us.

Creating a micro-MILC makes market sense if seen in that light, so I respectfully disagree with Thom Hogan precisely because he is not a Japanese schoolgirl. If a company is really going to try an get some of that 23 million person pie coming from P&S, then maybe one needs a MILC closer in size to a P&S! Go figure. The beer can and cigarette pack NEX ain't gonna do it (where does on out one's hands not suggestively?) Maybe Pentax is on to something here, if that here is where we are, which we do not know yet as this is a rumours thread.

OTOH, I very much want to be as influential in photography as Thom Hogan so I will agree with everything else he says because it is a better analysis of the state of the camera industry than anything else out there.
03-03-2011, 07:46 PM   #520
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QuoteOriginally posted by vincechu Quote
I have to say I'm personally very disappointed, I was hoping for a mirrorless solution i could use my current pentax lenses on.
Because of the flange to image plane distance this is not a good idea. However it could be done as with 4/3 with an adapter. However the very long legacy for Pentax in lenses while wonderful I think they should break here. Perhaps they can offer a electronic only adapter but I would not support engineering a screw driver for this type of camera. Essentially all the lenses should be reformulated anyway. Best to start from scratch.
03-03-2011, 08:21 PM - 1 Like   #521
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
The argument for an even smaller sensor MILC goes like this:

Those upgrading from P&S want marginally more IQ and even more portability. Take a GH2, K-r, A55, and NX10 side-by-side and they all come from the same gene pool. Even with the mirrorless smaller lenses, there's not really a hug amount of compact difference between them. Mass, yes, but one knock against the Panasonic GH's is they feel not very rugged, like plastic toys even. Between the lot of them it's like choosing whether you like beards or moustaches (but not both because that is for FF).

Take an NEX, PEN, GF, or NX100 and they come from a distinctly different but related gene pool although they're not substantially that much smaller as to drive sales from P&S one might think because if that were true, products like the Canon G-series might have sold better, being about the same form factor. These are selling well for their newness, because they've gone all 1970's leatherette retro, and because the guys with $$$ (referenced below) wants/needs a 2nd system, but he's not telling his squeeze he has something on the side.

So if your target is P&S people who want some fashion splash, a small MILC with 2.x crop sensor in pretty colours will fit the bill nicely, because Thom Hogan knows nothing about what sells cameras to teenage girls in Tokyo.

That may be Pentax's angle, given the K-x scored fairly well in a dazzling array of Pantones. Still, the classic DSLR form factor made a lot of them look like lipstick on a pig. A smaller MILC really might turn eensy pancakes into jewel lenses...literally! Let's accessorize!

Now, the serious DSLR guy thinking about mirrorless has a different take. He wants good, usually fast, glass. The GH2 is a dilemma for this guy because it doesn't really offer a huge opportunity cost step up in portability, certainly not at the price of buying into a new, unproven, and software delimited lens mount (you know who I'm talkin' 'bout).

This guy is also worried about backwards compatibility for their f/2.8 "big boy" glass. They care (a lot) about sensor size because size matters and it is, after all, mostly testosterone we are speaking to here as an audience. It's hard to care about sensor size when your mount is micro.

This is the guy who is also going to spend some serious after-market $$$ on glass, flash, tripod, kit bag, and hide the receipts from his significant other who is hiding her receipts from some activity far more worthwhile and productive to society. So the GH2 is a problem for this guy because it is a lot of $$$, doesn't make whoopie with his current lenses, and so on. This guy will possibly wait, might dabble in a smaller sensor pack-along (in manly black or Coast Guard/Old Spice red...unless color blind in which case he'll get yellow and pretend it's a fire engine hue), but he's not there yet and it's not out yet.

And he brings long-term brand loyalty (except on the internet forums), says sweet nothings to his mount every night promising a new prime experience soon honey, soon, and buys a new lens as often as Japanese bonus season allows, even if he is neither Japanese nor earns a bonus. This is the guy no one knowns how to sell mirrorless to but he is critical because he has carried the prosumer industry since it was in Leica-brand diapers. He'll let go his vanity and go mirrorless, but only if he sees someone else do it.

We have met the enemy, and he is us.

Creating a micro-MILC makes market sense if seen in that light, so I respectfully disagree with Thom Hogan precisely because he is not a Japanese schoolgirl. If a company is really going to try an get some of that 23 million person pie coming from P&S, then maybe one needs a MILC closer in size to a P&S! Go figure. The beer can and cigarette pack NEX ain't gonna do it (where does on out one's hands not suggestively?) Maybe Pentax is on to something here, if that here is where we are, which we do not know yet as this is a rumours thread.

OTOH, I very much want to be as influential in photography as Thom Hogan so I will agree with everything else he says because it is a better analysis of the state of the camera industry than anything else out there.
You should stop referencing the GH form factor. Panasonic understands that the appeal of a dSLR-like mirrorless system camera is limited and is putting more effort into the GF products as a result. So while the GH2 may represent the latest technology for M43, much of which will undoubtedly trickle down, it doesn't represent the direction. The GH line doesn't have the depth or the glass to stand toe to toe with someone already deep into dSLRs - unless they absolutely need knockout video. And still, my guess it will be a supplement, not a replacement.

The keys to the kingdom of those 23 million people coming from P&S really boils down to the price and size of the camera with the standard 3x-5x kit lens. Once a 2.?x bar of soap MILC gets to within $50 of the cheapest dSLR+kit lens you can get at BestBuy, then it's game on.
03-03-2011, 08:33 PM - 1 Like   #522
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its funny how for the Nikon camera before we even know what it is we "know" its a "Pro" camera. the Pentax and as far as we know its the same concept all the rumors suspects it will be a toy camera , for amateur Japanese teen girls .
I want a solid P&S , Panasonic Lx5 was my bet, now I am waiting to see this new concept . Pentax please give us quality
03-03-2011, 09:55 PM   #523
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Can someone do some quick calculations? A 2.5x crop camera would have how large a sensor? Certainly larger than 1/1.6 or 1/1.7. And even a 2/3 sensor is about a 4x crop. So, really, we're not talking that much smaller than a 4/3 sensor - assuming the rumors are correct.
03-04-2011, 12:43 AM   #524
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QuoteOriginally posted by johnmflores Quote
You should stop referencing the GH form factor. Panasonic understands that the appeal of a dSLR-like mirrorless system camera is limited and is putting more effort into the GF products as a result. So while the GH2 may represent the latest technology for M43, much of which will undoubtedly trickle down, it doesn't represent the direction. The GH line doesn't have the depth or the glass to stand toe to toe with someone already deep into dSLRs - unless they absolutely need knockout video. And still, my guess it will be a supplement, not a replacement.
Yep, the next two Panasonic cameras are rumoured to have a new sensor and new form factors (I'm guessing one is a range-finder style with EVF in top left corner; the other not sure).

With the GH2 sensor tech already on par with current APSC offerings (see the link I provided earlier), and the portability and weight savings significant, the question is mostly - can they make enough of them?

QuoteQuote:
The keys to the kingdom of those 23 million people coming from P&S really boils down to the price and size of the camera with the standard 3x-5x kit lens. Once a 2.?x bar of soap MILC gets to within $50 of the cheapest dSLR+kit lens you can get at BestBuy, then it's game on.
Isn't the EPL-1 kit already there?
03-04-2011, 01:48 AM   #525
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QuoteOriginally posted by juu Quote
With the GH2 sensor tech already on par with current APSC offerings
Not quite. I've looked at samples (and the DxO graphs tell the same story), and at high ISO (from ISO 3200) it's clearly inferior to even much less expensive beginner's cameras with somewhat outdated sensors (e.g. the K-r). But I have to admit, it looks pretty good at 1600 and below.
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