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01-25-2011, 11:02 AM   #46
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OK but Roland (Raphael?) Mabo knows nothing about what's coming (and makes no claim to know anything).

He is just thinking out loud here...

01-25-2011, 11:13 AM   #47
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QuoteOriginally posted by Art Vandelay II Quote
Now I totally disagree with this. I simply don't understand the point of a really small sensor + interchangeable lenses. I change lenses for two reasons; different field of view, and for different depth of field characteristics. Unlike in the days of the Auto 110 zoom lenses can now take care of the field of view changes. All they'd have to do is make a camera similar to Panasonic LX5, but with a 2/3's size sensor and a 24-105mm zoom built in. Any sensor smaller than 4/3's is simply too limiting in regards to DOF. They'd have to make faster than f/1 glass to produce decent bokeh...and even then it would still only look like something around f/4 on a full frame camera.

It seems to me there are two camps on these things; those that want a tiny camera to compliment their DSLR; and those like me that want to replace it all together. The first group would be very well served by the fixed lens camera I described above, but the second group needs a large sensor. 4/3's is not ideal, but it is acceptable, especially with a fast prime attached. But if it were up to me I'd say go full frame and put a $2000 price on it. It would be modern day Contax G2.
I would certainly want a G2 equivalent!!!!, But the technology is not there yet IMO, at least not for it to be viable. And certainly not in such a small box, which really defies the mirrorless need. My point on the small camera is that they could fill it with small fast primes, still get a m4/3 dof and be smaller, cheaper, almost as good at high ISO, but it would be smaller.
m4/3 will drop in size, but by the time it does, sensors will be way more capable and currant enthusiast compacts (LX5, S95, TL500) will be just as capable, Pentax could effectively be the first in a new market,, the enthusiast tiny weather sealed interchangeable market..... Which is somewhere I would like to go one day.... and have a FF or close to equivalent with really fast glass.
01-25-2011, 12:41 PM   #48
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QuoteOriginally posted by johnmflores Quote
Quality is not the only determinant of market success - see VHS vs. Betamax, LP vs. cassette, Netscape vs. Internet Explorer, etc... M43 already meets the needs of nearly all those tourists snapping away with their kit lenses. The M43 consortium challenge in North America is marketing.

Should Pentax enter M43, their challenge is a lens lineup as well as unique and competitive bodies. It's the same challenge that they face in the dSLR space, but without the 800# gorillas Nikon and Canon owning significant market and mindshare. M43 is still young enough - in the US at least - for Pentax to make an impact. They need to be different than existing players though, and that's what they are at least promising.

It's the same argument that drove Panasonic and Olympus to M43 in the first place. I'd argue that if they hadn't, Olympus would be out of business by now and Panasonic would be no better off than Sony in the dSLR space. Come to think of it, they'd be even worse off, due to lacking the installed base that Sony has through the Konica-Minolta acquisition.
Quality is what drove Apple to #1. Where is Dell now? Under a rock somewhere? Quality is not the end-all-be-all, but it matters. Locking into an undersize sensor and lens array would be a mistake. Sony avoided that knowing full well its 6-cylinder model will eventually be a marketing and sale triumph over competitor 4-cylinder models at the same price points.

The M43 challenge is pricing. Their products are about the same price as Canikon budget DSLR's, they're not that much smaller, and their lenses are considerably more expensive. The much-touted demise of the P&S is nowhere to be see as cameraphones are often derided for their....quality. People still go out and purchase dedicated cameras with real lenses. The real drama right now is not the M43 category (soooooo....2010), it's high-end P&S, like the S95, as 2nd cameras to whatever "real" DSLR or MILC camera one shoots.

Pentax's problem is mindshare. M43 is not going to expand Pentax's mindshare. It cannot because of aforementioned price impediments and because it would compete for the M43 title with Panny and Oly, all the while ceding sensor size to Sony and whatever Canikon come up with. Note Fuji went APS-C.

And Oly and Panny went to M43 as an attempt to reduce costs through sensor manufacture at a 4:3 ratio. The whole point of M43 was to start again on price. But the catch is they need to build it around a complete system. Budget DSLR's and economies-of-scale are very, very competitive and M43 is in a dogfight with a small sensor and no real cost advantages.

Last edited by Aristophanes; 01-25-2011 at 12:53 PM.
01-25-2011, 01:45 PM   #49
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NC-1 Mirrorless will be in September....CLiQ

01-25-2011, 03:55 PM   #50
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QuoteOriginally posted by Steelski Quote
...m4/3 will drop in size, but by the time it does, sensors will be way more capable and currant enthusiast compacts (LX5, S95, TL500) will be just as capable, Pentax could effectively be the first in a new market,, the enthusiast tiny weather sealed interchangeable market..... Which is somewhere I would like to go one day.... and have a FF or close to equivalent with really fast glass.
This could be just something that Pentax might come out with. Rumors are two ILC with different size sensors. The rumors also mention the Auto 110, which is a very timy camera. It really don't make a lot of sense soming out with an M-4/3 sensor size camera. It has been done. Pentax officials several times have mention something about being different. An ILC small sensor rugged weather-sealed camera would be different and just be what a DSLR user might want for their other camera. Only couple of lenses would be needed. Maybe a 24-70, 70-200 and a fast 50 would be all that would be needed. It wouldn't compete against the 1.5 cropped dslr cameras but would complement them. Anyhow, just an theory right now.

The other ILC will be a traditional 1.5 cropped sensor camera that will beither be position as a intro-level camera or maybe even a mid-level camera between the K-r and K-5.
01-25-2011, 04:01 PM   #51
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One thing to think about - does Pentax have the marketing muscle to launch a new standard?
01-25-2011, 04:03 PM   #52
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Quality is what drove Apple to #1. Where is Dell now? Under a rock somewhere?
At least in the US, Dell (and a number of other PC manufacturers) are still outselling Apple by a large margin:

Despite Growth, Apple Slips a Spot in U.S. Computer Sales Rankings: Apple News, Tips and Reviews
HP and Dell Still Dominating U.S. PC Sales
It's official, iPad sapped Windows PC shipments during Q4 2010, but Macs more | Tech Gear News - Betanews
Q4 PC Shipments Rose 3.1%; 2010 Up 13.8%; Apple Gains Ground

QuoteQuote:
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) topped the world market with 18.8% market share, ahead of Acer at 12.7%, Dell (DELL) at 11.6%, Lenovo with 10.1% and Toshiba with 5.7%.

In the U.S. market, HP again was tops, with 29.3% share, followed by Dell at 22.1%, Acer with 11.1%, Toshiba with 10.3% and Apple (AAPL) with 9.7%. Apple was the fastest growing of the large players, growing units 23.7% in the quarter from a year earlier.

For the full year, HP was the global leader, with 17.9% share, followed by Acer at 12.9%, Dell at 12%, Lenovo at 9.7% and Toshiba at 5.4%.
01-25-2011, 04:42 PM   #53
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QuoteOriginally posted by johnmflores Quote
One thing to think about - does Pentax have the marketing muscle to launch a new standard?
Not a chance. If not K mount, then my vote (voice in the wilderness and all that) is Sony.

I'm not suggesting that it's better than m43 - I don't know that. But I think that allows Pentax to be distinctive and to help Sony with lens designs.

Sony/Pentax, then, are spreading development and manufacturing costs for lenses across two product families.

It also helps Sony users (and, therefore, Sony) with a lens source if the K-mount adapter is offered.

And it creates more economies for sensor development and manufacturing.

Pentax can be more photographer-focused and as Sony is perhaps more ordinary-consumer-focused.

Getting in bed with Olympus and Panasonic may be necessary but it certainly limits Pentax's ability to stand out from the PanOly confederation.

I am prepared for some disagreement here ......

01-25-2011, 08:49 PM   #54
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One of the two will be the 'smallest ever in production," or something along that line. The other one is for high end. Interesting though that FF talk has subsided.
01-26-2011, 02:04 AM   #55
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QuoteOriginally posted by johnmflores Quote
One thing to think about - does Pentax have the marketing muscle to launch a new standard?
The other way of looking at it is if they go with M4/3, do they have the marketing muscle to distinguish itself from Olympus and Panasonic?

I believe they have a much better chance of success by creating a new (and hopefully better) system than going with M4/3.
01-26-2011, 05:01 AM   #56
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It will be nice if Pentax EVIL distinguishes itself with strong manual focus assist support like peaking or even some mechanized telescopic frange distance based auto focus. A mu43 sensor is so small that you have a lot of margin before vignetting becomes a problem with auto focus using mechanized frange distance adjustment for legacy FF lens.

A lot of people buy EVIL cameras for the fun of using legacy lens, but magnification based focus assist works well only on stationary objects for very fast lens. That's my experience using the liveview manual focus with my Kx. A legacy lens friendly Pentax EVIL camera will be a very exciting product for enthusiasts.
01-26-2011, 05:17 AM   #57
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Up to now, it seems that at least publicly available, "reliable" rumors point more towards a new mount and an APS-C-sized sensor. So, it should be too early for the anti-m43 fraction to worry . On the other hand, it may be useful to keep in mind the risks and drawbacks of introducing a new mount. So, "Pentax EVIL NC-1 has smaller sensor than APS-C - your opinion?" in a way is related to the question "Pentax EVIL is supposed to use another new mount - your opinion?".

Some comments regarding...

QuoteQuote:
really small sensor
Comparing [(m)43 with APS-C] and [APS-C with FF], the same or at least very similar arguments may apply.

Sensor sizes (crop factor):

FF: 36x24mm^2 = 864mm^2 (1)
APS-C: ~23.6x15.7mm^2 = ~370mm^2 (~1.5)
(m)43: 17.3x13mm^2 = 225 mm^2 (2) [same size, different flange focal distances]

Regarding the lenses, would't you like e.g. (simply) scaled down (1:2) FA limiteds (31/1.8 -> 16/1.8, 43/1.9 -> 22/1.9, 77/1.8 -> 39/1.8), FAs (20-35/4 -> 10-18/4, 24-90/3.5-4.5 -> 12-45/3.5-4.5, 35/2 -> 18/2, 50/1.4 -> 25/1.4) or even D(F)As (50+100 Macro -> 25+50 Macro, 60-250/4 -> 30-125/4, 200/2.8 -> 100/2.8, 300/4 -> 150/4) etc.?

See e.g. Four Thirds system, Micro Four Thirds system, https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/pentax-news-rumors/33971-will-pentax-comp...icro-4-3s.html

QuoteQuote:
full frame
As I understand it, the (first) mirrorless from Pentax should fill the gap between APS-C DSLRs and P&S cameras. Thus, it would also have to be priced accordingly. Additionally, if Pentax finally introduces a FF, it imho really should be a camera with a PKAF2 mount!
01-26-2011, 07:35 AM   #58
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IMO if the intension is to compete within the "soccer mom" and "I know nothin' about cameras, but I want one that take pretty pictures" markets, there is no need for interchangeable lenses since the users would stick with the kit lenses anyway.

An APSC "evil" camera with 18-55 or similar would allows for easier scaling down without the burden of a mount.

They can realease another model with a prime to please the "enthousiast" market as well. At the end of the day, it would still be cheaper development costs.
01-26-2011, 10:37 AM - 1 Like   #59
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With all due respect, I think that you guys are missing the point. I am not a soccer mom or the male equivalent. I do want to take pretty pictures of the kids and the dog, but I also enjoy photography for the sake of photography. It is true that I want more camera than I will ever use, but each time I have upgraded my camera, I have learned to use some of the new capabilities, and I have benefited from it.

When I saw the specs on the Canon 7D, I said to myself that I had to get my hands on it, but when I did my reaction was that I would never carry it around with me. It is a monster. Same is true of the Nikon D90.

You see, I take photographs when I am doing things. It is rare for me to just taking pictures. It happens, but usually is spontaneous. The truth is that interchangeable lens cameras are just too big for my needs, and the compacts are too limited.

So the whole MFT thing makes a lot of sense for people like me. But it should make sense for a lot more of you than will admit it. At some point, a camera is good enough that what matters is the photographer, not the equipment. If you look at cameras that people gushed about a few years ago, you will see megapixels and densities not unlike MFT cameras. The Olympus E-PL2 has 12 megapixels with 5.1 MP/cm2. The Nikon D300S is 12 megapixels with 3.3 MP/cm2. The Canon 50D has 15 megapixels with 4.5 MP/cm2. The Nikon D7000 now has 16 megapixels with 4.6 MP/cm2 and the Canon 7D has 18 megapixels with 5.4 MP/cm2. Megapixels and density have gone up across the board, which is just the advance of technology.

But what if instead of trying cram more megapixels in the camera, you used the same technology to make the system smaller? You probably could achieve leading edge quality from a few years ago in a much smaller package. And if a camera was excellent a few years ago, why is is inadequate today?

It seems like a lot of you should be shooting a 645D and pining for the next model. That's great for a few people, but well past the point of diminishing returns in the real world. A bigger camera can take a better picture than a smaller camera, but not many people are looking for something that weighs 200 pounds.

The advancements in digital imaging have allowed us to completely rethink what a camera should be. The constraints that led to existing designs are gone, replaced by new and different constraints.

A lot of people want a smaller interchangeable lens system than even an entry-level DLSR. And for most of us, smaller means smaller lenses, not NEX. Full frame would just be a huge lens with a little box at the end. If you are going to lug those lenses around, you might as well balance them with a substantial camera.

But if you want the ability to take family pictures and to be creative, then a digital 110 would be perfect. With a digital camera, film is not an issue, and no one can tell by looking what was used to take most photographs. It would be way more than good enough.

I am more excited about a Pentax EVIL camera than I care to admit. Pentax already gets it when it comes to a compact, functional cameras. The overall dimensions of the K5 are only 10% bigger than the GH2. At 4.4 MP/cm2, the Pentax sensor has a density in the range of other 12 megapixel MFT cameras (the G2 is 5MP/cm2). If you just used a 4/3 size part of the Pentax sensor, you would have 10 megapixels.

If Pentax joined MFT, then it would have lenses available and a market for its own lenses. But I can tell you now that I would be first in line to get a Pentax MFT camera.

My purpose is not to start a fight, but to explain why some of us are so enthusiastic about a Pentax EVIL camera. I guess the starting point is whether you would like a smaller camera if it could meet all of your needs. If you would, then question is whether a smaller camera could meet your needs. I suspect that with current and continuing advances in technology, the answer is or will be yes.
01-26-2011, 10:46 AM   #60
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QuoteQuote:
One [...] will be the smallest ever in production [...]
QuoteQuote:
[...] there is no need for interchangeable lenses [...]
"World’s Smallest DSLR Camera": Chobi One Valid counterexample?

QuoteQuote:
compete within the "soccer mom" and "I know nothin' about cameras
I think the competition is rather in the "I have enough of P&S and bridge cameras but I will not spend more than (say) 500$ for a (small) body/system" clientele .
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