Originally posted by Aristophanes Totally agree Pentaxor.
When Canon, Nikon, and Pentax get into mirrorless (and they will), and Samsung and Sony work out their kinks, APS-C systems will clean M43's clock despite the early head start. Why?
1) On the sales floor: this one (APS-C) has a bigger engine. The counter for M43 has always been "good enough for real world shooting" but my background says that will hold almost no water for new entrants who buy on spec, not pixel peeping. The latter is done AFTER a purchase. This killed 43. M43 is not immune to that dynamic.
2) Cost: M43 may be more expensive due to sensor supply issues, despite being smaller and supposedly taking less production resources. When Canikon get in, watch out! They can post loss leaders that Olympus cannot. Odds are Canikon will bracket M43 price points and bleed M43 on the sensor size issue. Lens development will catch up, as it always has in this industry, so that lead, too, will evaporate.
3) Marketing: M43 will only be one of many offering near identical systems. Any lead they have now will vanish in a single quarter, likely the last Q of 2011. They will never get it back.
I give M43 a 3 year run more at best before the APS-C economy-of-scale output from 7 mirrorless vendors (Canon, Nikon, Pentax, Samsung, Sony, Fuji, and Leica) grinds it down and Olympus and Panasonic need to re-engineer. The M43 market objective right now is to leverage their base for as long a run as possible. Growing their base past 2011 will be extremely difficult based on what the 7 APS-C suppliers will offer.
I think the Q has an under-sized, over-priced sensor. Other than that, the concept is OK for a glorified P&S. If it had a G12 sensor and was MSRP US$649, with an "all-in" kit at US$999 it would fly off the shelves. As it is........meh!
IIRC, a while back you predicted that full-frame cameras were going to drop in price and put the top end of the APS-C market (K-5, 7D, D300, etc...) at risk. Do you still believe that will happen?
In other words, what's your vision of the new world order? Mirrorless APS-C at the entry, dSLR APS-C in the mid-range, and dSLR FF at the top?
IMO, we've reached an age where IQ is a non-issue for the entry and mid-range. Sure, APS-C is marginally better than M43, but as others have suggested, the sensor in the GH2 (and now G3) is more than adequate for entry and mid-range users - the folks that are buying cameras to capture family moments and keep the kit lens on 90% of the time.
Up until recently, M43's challenge has been AF and low-light at a pricepoint that soccer moms and little league dads can afford. The GH2 had both (nearly) but was above entry-level. The G3, however, is right in the thick of the entry-level, with a form factor that's hard to ignore. There's still a huge perception gap though. The default path is still P&S -> dSLR and it's going to take a lot of marketing to change that.
Mirrorless APS-C, on the other hand, struggles with lens size, as evidenced by the Sony NEX series. Will the entry and mid-level be satisfied with the reduction in body size alone while the lenses remain the size of Big Gulps? Only time will tell.
The only thing I will predict is that it will be a slugfest between Sony and Panasonic. Neither will give up that easily with so much market on the table. Panasonic's rolled out 4 cameras in the last 9 months and shows no sign of letting up. Expect the same from Sony (hopefully). It's a great time to buy!
And Samsung? Remember, they are bigger than Sony even. If they ever focus their attention on this market, they will make an impact.
Pity Nikon and Canon though. Each year they wait on the sidelines is another year and two generations of cameras where Sony and Panasonic are improving CDAF, EVF, in-camera PP, Peaking, and other decidedly digital innovations that are firmly in their wheelhouse. It will be most interesting to see if and how Canikon catch up...