[vinzer]

In other semi related news, some guy writes a very long article about the future of mirrorless here:
If 2010 is Micro FourThirds' Year, 2011 is the Year of Olympus - Zone-10 - Beyond the Light

I don't think the picture he paints is fully accurate, but then neither is the reverse which has often been claimed in this thread.

The picture he paints are more of his own guesses and hypotheses than anything really, based on recent news regarding m4/3. Around page 3 or so, I started skipping over stuff, looking for new info he might have received (the whole article spans a many number of pages). I ended up skipping over the rest of the article.

As someone who has m4/3 gear, I certainly look forward to seeing more good products come out from Olympus and Panasonic. At the same time, I'm also interested to see what Nikon and Pentax will come up with. I don't mind if it ends up to be a 2.5x crop, as I think I'd still be able to have enough DOF control with such a sensor. I'm more interested in how much smaller they can make that system to be in terms of overall size and weight, and how much they're looking to charge for those items.

[uccemebug]

The picture he paints are more of his own guesses and hypotheses than anything really, based on recent news regarding m4/3. Around page 3 or so, I started skipping over stuff, looking for new info he might have received (the whole article spans a many number of pages). I ended up skipping over the rest of the article.

I read it through. The fellow's very enthusiastic and obviously sees some great things coming but the main piints that I got from it were:
a) the German lens manufacturers and the (sometimes very) small players that have joined are keen to sell lenses and Olympus & Panasonic have left lots of vacancies in the line-up of primes for them to play in. He points out that there are not on vacancies at many focal lengths but at different speeds (e.g. one at <f/1.8, one at f/2-2.8, one at f/3.5).
b) Olympus is going to get serious about building OM-grade quality u43 bodies.
c) u43 is today's K-mount .. it's a standard and popular in part because it offers a smaller platform than what proceded it
d) Sony and Samsung's mirrorless platforms prove the concept and by counter-example prove the strength of the alliance around u43

As someone who has m4/3 gear, I certainly look forward to seeing more good products come out from Olympus and Panasonic. At the same time, I'm also interested to see what Nikon and Pentax will come up with. I don't mind if it ends up to be a 2.5x crop, as I think I'd still be able to have enough DOF control with such a sensor. I'm more interested in how much smaller they can make that system to be in terms of overall size and weight, and how much they're looking to charge for those items.

Yeah, it's an interesting time. I'm very glad that I didn't sink more money into another warmed-over SLR-style DSLR two years ago.

[aragondina]

It's a bit odd that you felt the urge to read this thread and post a response then.

I'm also not exactly sure why you think m4/3's is a dead format, it is certainly more appealing to me than a 2.5x sensor, and in some ways it appeals to me even more than APS-C. I do value small size after all; and if 4/3's IQ is good enough (which it is), then I imagine a good number of people will choose m4/3's over APS-C solutions simply because the lenses are smaller.

Oh, and one more thing, the Panasonic GF2 is the 3rd best selling interchangeable lens camera in Japan right now. Only the Canon Rebel/Kiss is selling better there.

I just feel that EVIL is going in the wrong direction. 4/3rds and m4/3rds are dead as far as pro level cameras are concerned. The only ones using it are Olympus and Panasonic. While the E5 is a good advanced camera, the DR falls short of what is needed for a good portrait or landscape camera. Even OLY says it will be the last pro series camera with 4/3rds.

While you feel the IQ is good enough, many (including myself) feel the IQ suffers because of the sensor size. EVILs are getting into that point and shoot territory that I have no interest in. I value IQ over size and weight. I have no problem carrying 5 pounds of camera and lens all day (my 8x10 field camera is over 10 pounds!). Even the best OLY, the E5 has pretty bad chroma noise at ISO800, and is unusable at 1600. (Shooting RAW no added NR). I won't even discuss the depth of field issues.

This is the beauty of the free market, there are lots of choices for everyone. If EVIL suits your style then enjoy. An EVIL will never work for me as I want better IQ and I hate EVFs with a passion. I feel Pentax would be better served producing a full frame camera than an EVIL. I know that smaller cameras like the 4/3rds sell very well in Japan, but I live in Canada and let's face it, the Japanese can be a little.......odd at times

[eurostar]

I feel Pentax would be better served producing a full frame camera than an EVIL.

I feel you would be better served if Pentax would make a full-frame.

I think Hoya believe it is better served by a medium format camera with little competition than by a me-too full-frame without the Canon or Nikon name engraved above.

EVIL competes in the upper P&S market, more so if the rumors about a tiny sensor Pentax mirrorless has some depth.

[Asahiflex]

A FF EVIL certainly is not a me-too product...

[Biro]

I just feel that EVIL is going in the wrong direction. 4/3rds and m4/3rds are dead as far as pro level cameras are concerned. The only ones using it are Olympus and Panasonic. While the E5 is a good advanced camera, the DR falls short of what is needed for a good portrait or landscape camera. Even OLY says it will be the last pro series camera with 4/3rds.

I understand your point but I think none of us really knows where EVIL is truly headed. The fact is, it's still early days. It may be that EVIL is headed everywhere. Part of me thinks that - for better or for worse - EVILs will generally replace cameras with mirrors for everyone but true professionals. This will be for economic reasons on the part of camera makers more than anything else. True DSLRs will probably continue to be available for true professionals - but they will be very expensive. On the other hand, note that Olympus is already talking about bringing out pro-level micro four-thirds cameras and gear. If that works out, who knows? Besides, EVIL cameras don't have to be micro four-thirds.

I think the big unknown in all of this is the march of technology. As with all electronics, products will get better and cheaper. Which is why we can expect better EVFs and better sensors with lower noise levels in the future. Now... I understand why many of us prefer an OVF (at least if they're big and bright - many are not) and there are still depth-of-field issues with smaller sensors. But, at some point, EVIL - especially micro four-thirds - will fall solidly into the "good enough" category for 90% of the market. And I'm not just talking about entry-level P&S - I think this will cover many mid-level and even advanced amateurs as well. It'll be like automatic transmissions in cars: I prefer a manual but only about 10% of the market shares my opinion. So automatics are the standard and manuals are hard to come by.

Of course, like you, I am hoping we still have choices about this in the future. For me, in some situations I still rely on my Pentax K200D kit. For others, it's my Panasonic G1 kit. I still plan on buying a K-5 - maybe next Christmas. But I wouldn't be surprised if the K-5 turned out to be the last true DSLR that I buy.

[olenl]

Can anyone make sense of the new rumor about 1/2.33" sensor of the new EVIL?

I personally think that even K-mount FF EVIL is more likely than this... I mean come on, Optio with interchangeable lenses? Who would ever buy that? Unless it would cost like Optios of course, but then what's the point...

[eurostar]

A FF EVIL certainly is not a me-too product...

I had the impression the poster to which I replied was talking about DSRL FF.

[johnmflores]

I still plan on buying a K-5 - maybe next Christmas. But I wouldn't be surprised if the K-5 turned out to be the last true DSLR that I buy.

Ditto. The GH2 is opening my eyes to what is possible with M43...

[eurostar]

Can anyone make sense of the new rumor about 1/2.33" sensor of the new EVIL?

I personally think that even K-mount FF EVIL is more likely than this... I mean come on, Optio with interchangeable lenses? Who would ever buy that? Unless it would cost like Optios of course, but then what's the point...

I don't think Pentax will come out with a 1/2,33" sensor mirroless, I, like many, guess it's some sort of misunderstanding due to the fact that the Kenko mirrorless is related to Hoya as well. But, be it pentax or just the kenko, I think the reason is the sheer fun of having an inexpensive camera to play with a big array of lenses. C-mount lenses are common, there are gems, you can hunt for them in flea market... surely it will never be a camera for making photograph... it will be a camera for taking photographs...

[juu]

aragondina, how many exposures have you made with the GH2?

[Pål Jensen]

I understand your point but I think none of us really knows where EVIL is truly headed. The fact is, it's still early days. It may be that EVIL is headed everywhere. Part of me thinks that - for better or for worse - EVILs will generally replace cameras with mirrors for everyone but true professionals. This will be for economic reasons on the part of camera makers more than anything else. True DSLRs will probably continue to be available for true professionals - but they will be very expensive.

You overestimate the cost of the mirrorsystem and forget the fact that an optical viewfinder will be a bonus on any type of camera. An electronic finder could be incorporated in any type of camera...

[aragondina]

aragondina, how many exposures have you made with the GH2?

I've run about 250 shots through one. I try out all the new cameras that come into the shop so I can help the customer with their selection. While a nice little camera, I was not impressed with the IQ. 16mp is too much for such a small sensor. I never tried the video so can't say anything to that. I also know 2 people who had bought one and promptly returned them and bought a proper DSLR.

It's a decent camera, and it's very good for those who find size to be a premium worth paying for.

[aragondina]

I understand your point but I think none of us really knows where EVIL is truly headed. The fact is, it's still early days. It may be that EVIL is headed everywhere. Part of me thinks that - for better or for worse - EVILs will generally replace cameras with mirrors for everyone but true professionals. This will be for economic reasons on the part of camera makers more than anything else. True DSLRs will probably continue to be available for true professionals - but they will be very expensive. On the other hand, note that Olympus is already talking about bringing out pro-level micro four-thirds cameras and gear. If that works out, who knows? Besides, EVIL cameras don't have to be micro four-thirds.

Sadly I think you are right, EVILs seem to be the way things are going. I understand that smaller is desirable for many, but pros will always (hopefully) demand an OVF in their cameras. I know that OLY has burned a lot of their high end users to the point there are not many pro Olympus users anymore. Bringing out a M4/3rds camera would just add insult to injury. (lenses are expensive to replace) Canon survived the changing of their mount in the 80's, Olympus wouldn't. They are just too small a player.

[uccemebug]

I know that smaller cameras like the 4/3rds sell very well in Japan, but I live in Canada and let's face it, the Japanese can be a little.......odd at times

...yeah, those Canadians sure know their camera manufacturing! 8^D