Originally posted by juu Yep, GH2 could have easily had 3x sales it seems except for it being out of stock everywhere.
The GH2 presents an m43 dilemma.
It goes toe-to-toe at price points where IQ may very well trump portability, and does so trying to challenge the same markets where Canikon (and Pentax) have established lens mount loyal customers. That's a big reason why we have not seen (as Hogan points out) "pro" or WR bodies from m43. Those customers are much harder to crack because they are heavily invested elsewhere and where the advantages of a compact system are less pronounced.
Low-end mirrorless will (eventually) get into the same commodity pricing that plagued SLR's. So between these two forces, that's why we see Olympus talking up a "pro" m43, but also explains why Sony is offering 2 mounts. They can keep a known and popular form factor, but also backwards compatibility for those seeking superior IQ, larger bodies, eventually maybe larger (FF) sensors, lots of accessible manual controls, ruggedness and WR, etc.
A schism is forming in the market where the majority who prefer convenience over IQ and other tangibles are going to turn to MILC sans VF, but for manufacturers that will probably trend towards commodity pricing and maybe weak profits. These customers will go for an NEX or m43 or whatever comes from Canikon, Pentax, Ricoh, etc as a step up from P&S, but will be price point conscious. This group will definitely impact dedicated videocam sales (another reason why Canon has been hesitant to enter). Bridge cameras have declined for awhile, but there will still be a market segment that wants a larger form factor and a versatile lens, but has zero interest in ILC. The segment will shrink, but endure (Oly just released a new one).
The minority of the market will not compromise as much, especially on IQ (it never did even in the dark days of SLR sales). They may look to pellicle or continue with the evolution of the DSLR (and OVF preference) but this segment will drive some very good after-market sales on core photographic equipment (as distinct from Apple's ecosystem where after-market generally means iPhone cases). Imagine if you make tripods; which one of those is your market? For many in this segment they will play in both camps and perhaps EVIL cameras will be the main breadwinners here. System compactness and register distance (as in a whopping 9mm) are not impediments when compared to the benefits of backwards compatibility. In fact, too small form factor may be a negative for many.
Profits in prosumer and pro ILC cameras have traditionally not been made on volume sales of bodies; they've been made on after-market sales, especially of lenses for manufacturers because they can make multiple lens sets off of switched production lines, and glass is best made in very large batches inventoried until the next assembly cycle. This is the reverse for retail where the yearly sell-through of bodies by model year has been the prime consumer driver, whereas lenses take up shelf space and overhead and it can be very hard to gauge consumer appetite (which used to vary enormously depending on what was featured in certain magazines). Right now, after-market lenses on mirrorless are price prohibitive. As small as they are, a 20% premium cannot help but diminish sales. That will change, but it's a prime reason why the GH2 is not produced as much, I suspect. Panasonic projects too-low after-market sales to ramp up production for overseas. Distribution is brutally expensive unless you have volume and Panasonic is known as a company that protects its margins. Oly has been more focused. They own the 43 system patents and need a broad base to make it pay. They'll put out loss leaders and risk cannibalization by frequent model releases to gain market share traction. They have to. The APS-C mirrorless train is about to increase its presence dramatically in the next 24 months.
Samsung has one advantage: it has a substantially large, nationalistic base for sales in S. Korea. Seoul is a giant, loyal test market with substantial purchasing power, the same way Tokyo has been for 50 years. I would never count Samsung out. It is a very, very large, patient, and successful conglomerate. The NX system looks well thought-out overall.
Originally posted by juu But he does make a good point, surely it is a route Canikon can take.
They'll take a few routes. Sony may have shown the way, but I have no doubt Canikon have APS-C NEX-equivalents in the wings for 2011 release. Nikon and Pentax may even have a small sensor variant lurking. The biggest manufacturer issue is not design nor getting bodies/sensors/processors out, it's lenses.