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06-08-2011, 05:17 AM   #721
juu
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Nonsense. Tell that to Hyundai. Or Apple with iPods (remember the Rio?). In 1970 everyone thought Olympus was crazy for bringing on the OM series of SLR's going up against Nikon, Canon, Pentax, etc.
Just because you disagree with something that is fairly common knowledge doesn't make it "nonsense". Obviously there are barriers of entry and new players have to offer something special (a differentiator) to compete. Just because there are a number of instances in history where companies have managed to do it which you have listed doesn't make the overall rule "nonsense".

We can argue about how well established m43 and NEX are as systems (and - lol - standards), but overall ogl is quite right.

06-08-2011, 05:55 AM   #722
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I still, still, still hope Pentax goes the FF route. Not like the bulky beasts from Canon and Nikon, but Pentax MX-like in size and shape. That, in my opinion, will put Pentax back on the map instantly, worldwide. The success of the Fuji X100 shows that such classic cameras could sell very, very well. And I can guarantee you, even without market research, that a digital MX would sell in shitloads, even at a $2,500 price tag. It would be out of stock everywhere... For many months.

Edit: Pentax is a low-volume company anyway so a "Classic FF" makes more sense for them than a small Evil camera which could sell very well, but also requires production capacity.

Last edited by Asahiflex; 06-08-2011 at 06:22 AM.
06-08-2011, 06:18 AM   #723
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"Common knowledge"?

Puhleeeeeesae, spare us.

Ogl is 100% wrong. There is no market where first entry bars market share gains through innovation and/or marketing by competitors. Microsoft had over 95% OS ownership and look where they are now? They have a low-return commodity OS while competitors eat their margins and shareholder returns.

There is no "common knowledge" that mirrorless is a market now clearly owned and defined by the current suppliers.
06-08-2011, 06:34 AM   #724
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Awesome website BTW.
No kidding! Going to look at lifting that full-frame photo display look.... 8^x

06-08-2011, 06:47 AM   #725
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Microsoft had over 95% OS ownership and look where they are now? They have a low-return commodity OS while competitors eat their margins and shareholder returns.
Not sure that PC OS is a great example. Their only commercial competitor in the OS field is a hardware company that practically gives away its OS. $30 for OSX Lion upgrade this summer, not a big profit-maker for Apple. According to this collection of surveys, Windows is still at 88% of the market, and the OS and related productivity software still forms the overwhelming majority of Microsoft's profits.

But who cares about PC OS's any more. 8^)
06-08-2011, 07:52 AM   #726
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QuoteOriginally posted by Asahiflex Quote
I still, still, still hope Pentax goes the FF route. Not like the bulky beasts from Canon and Nikon, but Pentax MX-like in size and shape. That, in my opinion, will put Pentax back on the map instantly, worldwide. .
Agreed - No matter what photograpjhy forum you visit or who you talk to in the street, just baout anyone comes up with "I wish they'd make digital version of <insert film body here>" I'd love digitized OM10, but a Pentax would also be fine!

We just need someone to take the leap and make the SLR version of the X100
06-08-2011, 08:03 AM - 1 Like   #727
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Ogl is 100% wrong.
First, you're not doing a very good job of reading what he wrote.

Let us recap:
QuoteOriginally posted by ogl:
new player [has] to offer something more special than competitors
QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes:
There is no market where first entry bars market share gains through innovation and/or marketing by competitors.
Yep, that's a strawman, as usual from you. "Innovation and/or marketing" is the "something more special" he refers to. That is, you're misrepresenting what he wrote so that you can oppose it.

QuoteQuote:
Microsoft had over 95% OS ownership and look where they are now? They have a low-return commodity OS while competitors eat their margins and shareholder returns.
Microsoft is an excellent example of an entrenched competitor successfully defending its turf for decades, and it takes a major market shift to mobile devices to erode that advantage - somewhat like mirror-less will erode Canikon's dominance unless they act soon.

OS/2, BeOS, MacOS, hundreds of Unix flavours all couldn't gain any ground.

You need to pick better examples, as the one you picked to support your point clearly does the opposite.

QuoteQuote:
There is no "common knowledge" that mirrorless is a market now clearly owned and defined by the current suppliers.
And now you are doing another strawman - the "common knowledge" I referred to was that established firms form a real barrier to entry to markets which new entrants need to overcome. That is the summary of what ogl said, and it is strange you find it hard to accept.

I really hope your reading comprehension improves in the future.


Last edited by juu; 06-08-2011 at 11:20 AM.
06-08-2011, 09:19 AM - 1 Like   #728
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Nonsense. Tell that to Hyundai. Or Apple with iPods (remember the Rio?). In 1970 everyone thought Olympus was crazy for bringing on the OM series of SLR's going up against Nikon, Canon, Pentax, etc.
I don't understand what you mean... Your examples of Hyundai and OM are rather strange... It seems to me you can't understand my posts at all...

Auto-market differs from EVIL market...OM cameras are history and nothing else.

m4/3 is rather advanced system now...NX will be very strong with 5 new lenses and 2 new cameras this year...NEX tries too...(new lenses are on the way).
New NEX camera is announced today.

Have a look at this systems...
http://www.olympus.com.ru/consumer/21693_23909.htm
http://www.olympus.com.ru/consumer/21693_21730.htm
http://www.olympus.com.ru/consumer/21693_22348.htm
http://www.olympus.com.ru/consumer/21693_22691.htm
http://www.olympus.com.ru/consumer/21693_22694.htm

http://www2.panasonic.com/consumer-electronics/shop/Cameras-Camcorders/Lumix...00000000005702
http://www2.panasonic.com/consumer-electronics/shop/Cameras-Camcorders/LUMIX...00000000005702

e t.c.

It's real systems with good future plans and lens roadmap.
A lot of Pentaxian had already mirrorless cameras from another brands...It's not a secret.
Here, there and everywhere...At Russian penta-club or at dpreview or at pentaxforums - a lot of users of m4/3, NX and NEX...
As second system.

m4/3 and NX are very attractive now...NEX is very good to work with old manual lenses.

Pentax has to offer THE PRODUCTS (camera and lenses) at least NOT LOWER LEVEL than NX or m4/3. It would be better - HIGHER level...

Otherwise, Pentax mirrorless won't be successful...It's very hard to be better.
Panasonic is very strong in video. Samsung and m4/3 - in lenses.

To announce one APS-C camera without any special things and with two kit lenses are nothing for this market.

To launch system with 1/2.33" sensor is only for Japanese freaks.

Last edited by ogl; 06-08-2011 at 09:30 AM.
06-08-2011, 09:34 AM   #729
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QuoteOriginally posted by ogl Quote
I don't understand what you mean... Your examples of Hyundai and OM are rather strange... It seems to me you can't understand my posts at all...

Auto-market differs from EVIL market...OM cameras are history and nothing else.

m4/3 is rather advanced system now...NX will be very strong with 5 new lenses and 2 new cameras this year...NEX tries too...(new lenses are on the way).
New NEX camera is announced today.

Have a look at this systems...It's real systems with good future plans and lens roadmap.
A lot of Pentaxian had already mirrorless cameras from another brands...It's not a secret.
Here, there and everywhere...At Russian penta-club or at dpreview or at pentaxforums - a lot of users of m4/3, NX and NEX...
As second system.

m4/3 and NX are very attractive now...NEX is very good to work with old manual lenses.

Pentax has to offer THE PRODUCTS (camera and lenses) at least NOT LOWER LEVEL than NX or m4/3. It would be better - HIGHER level...

Otherwise, Pentax mirrorless won't be successful...It's very hard to be better.
Panasonic is very strong in video. Samsung and m4/3 - in lenses.

To announce one APS-C camera without any special things and with two kit lenses are nothing for this market.

To launch system with 1/2.33" sensor is only for Japanese freaks.
I cant agree if it is a growing market new competitors can gain share
The 1/2.33 camera isnt fir the typical forum member its for the larger market imho
The apsc has been rumoured to have some k mount compatability last i looked that means a lot more than 2lenses
06-08-2011, 11:53 AM   #730
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Competitors do not have to offer a necessarily better or different technical product. They can blow away a market on price or through channel distribution. Pentax could offer mirrorless aimed solely at it's core market for k-mount, like the original iPod was only usable for the Mac. There are multiple vectors to enter and consolidate a market. The photographic market is dually loyal and fickle and always has been (Fuji vs Kodak).

There are innumerable examples of thriving me-too competitors in the consumer electronics industry (of which the photography market is now a handmaiden).

These generalized statements about how Pentax will not be able to compete against the other mirrorless companies is total nonsense as it goes completely against the grain of the industry's development for......oh......100 years. There is ample space for Pentax. I keep pointing out that the 2 heavy hitters, Canon and Nikon, are not there yet as they likely see things we do not about market direction. These are not stupid companies with blind shareholders. Their absence to date speaks volumes. They both still record stellar sales of mid-level new models of DSLRs. The sky is not falling nor has the sun set. The market is very fluid and indecisive. There is absolutely no consensus on the general design trends of cameras. Sales show a fractured, not consolidated market where iPhones compete against DSLR's in a continuum.

It's B-school marketing 101 people!

I mean, Ricoh is still around for Pete's sake.
06-08-2011, 12:27 PM   #731
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Awesome website BTW.
QuoteOriginally posted by uccemebug Quote
No kidding! Going to look at lifting that full-frame photo display look.... 8^x
Thanks! I just recently created the site and thought that I'd let the pictures do the talking. One of the cool things is that the photos are being pulled from Flickr sets. Whenever I change the content of the Flickr sets, the site changes automagically.

Now when is this damn camera coming out???!!!
06-08-2011, 01:25 PM   #732
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Reposting Thom Hogan's writeup relevant to the discussion, as direct linking to his articles is not possible:

QuoteOriginally posted by Thom Hogan:
Welcome to Mirrorless Summer

[..]

But the NEX-3C is just the first in what is going to seem like an endless series of mirrorless announcements over the next month. Next up is the Panasonic GF3, which is an LX-5 sized camera with the m4/3 lens mount. Curiously, each GF model has aimed at a lower, more mass market than the one before it. That'll be followed by the Olympus E-P3/E-PL3 announcements towards the end of the month. And bringing up the rear will be Samsung with their third generation NX announcements.

Let's put that in perspective: Panasonic, Olympus, and Samsung are introducing their third generations of mirrorless products, Sony its second, while Nikon, Pentax, and Canon are still missing in action. That MIA thing is becoming more and more of a problem, as it's becoming clearer that lens availability is one crucial component holding back mirrorless from making even further inroads on DSLRs. But that's changing, too. Panasonic and Olympus have the advantage here, with 15 lenses between them, five more coming, and some additional support from third-party makers. Samsung is up to five lenses with five more promised later this year. Sony trails with four lenses currently and four more scheduled for this year, and a now open lens mount specification that should attract third parties.

So the question becomes: when Nikon/Pentax/Canon do enter this market, how many lenses will they have? My bet: no more than three each, with more promised. But that'll look a bit weak compared to the competition, almost an inversion of the normal scheme of things, where the F-mount, EF mount, and K mount have dominated so much that it wasn't considered "safe" to pick something with another mount. (I leave out the Alpha mount here because of the many years of uncertainty that occurred with the transition from Minolta to Konica to Sony, now hopefully resolved for good.)

Lack of anything but basic kit lenses at launch will mean that Nikon/Pentax/Canon have to have something "better" up their sleeves. I suspect that Nikon and Canon believe they can just compete with "brand name." Nikon and Pentax also are rumored to have decided to go small (smaller sensor than m4/3, the current small champion in removable lens cameras). Canon, well, they're not rumored to be doing anything (though certainly there must be some panic internally that's prompted R&D).

If you haven't read my reviews of the second/first generation of mirrorless cameras, it might be time to do so. For more casual shooting, I now mostly use one of these cameras as they're simply smaller and more convenient and don't give up as much image quality as traditional compact cameras do. If I were headed on vacation with my family this summer it's what I'd take, not my D5100, D7000, or heaven forbid, D3 bodies. Yes, you have to work a little harder in some situations to get the same quality of shot, but not that much harder.

Meanwhile, Nikon, Pentax, and Canon have missed another Father's Day, another Graduation present, another summer of vacationers. So expect to see more Panasoni, Olympi, Samsungs and Sonys this year. Many more. The other companies appear to have missed the turnoff. Maybe they'll catch back up. Maybe they won't. But they certainly aren't leading the tour any more.
06-08-2011, 02:32 PM   #733
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QuoteOriginally posted by ogl Quote
I don't understand what you mean... Your examples of Hyundai and OM are rather strange... It seems to me you can't understand my posts at all...

Auto-market differs from EVIL market...OM cameras are history and nothing else.

m4/3 is rather advanced system now...NX will be very strong with 5 new lenses and 2 new cameras this year...NEX tries too...(new lenses are on the way).
New NEX camera is announced today.

Have a look at this systems...
Olympus - ?????????? PEN
Olympus - ????????? PEN
Olympus - ?????? PEN
Olympus - PEN Flash Systems
Olympus - ????? ? ??????? PEN

LUMIX® Digital Cameras - Interchangeable Lens Models from Panasonic
LUMIX® Lenses from Panasonic

e t.c.

It's real systems with good future plans and lens roadmap.
A lot of Pentaxian had already mirrorless cameras from another brands...It's not a secret.
Here, there and everywhere...At Russian penta-club or at dpreview or at pentaxforums - a lot of users of m4/3, NX and NEX...
As second system.

m4/3 and NX are very attractive now...NEX is very good to work with old manual lenses.

Pentax has to offer THE PRODUCTS (camera and lenses) at least NOT LOWER LEVEL than NX or m4/3. It would be better - HIGHER level...

Otherwise, Pentax mirrorless won't be successful...It's very hard to be better.
Panasonic is very strong in video. Samsung and m4/3 - in lenses.

To announce one APS-C camera without any special things and with two kit lenses are nothing for this market.

To launch system with 1/2.33" sensor is only for Japanese freaks.
His point is valid. I'm a Pentax user who has their K5, all 5 Limited lenses, 31, 43, 77, and 50-135. What cameras do I use the most, the EPL2 and the X100. In fact since I got the X100 I bought a small Domke bag that fits it and the EPL2 with the Pansonic 20mm attached. That X100 is no fooling a good camera. It's probably too expensive but they sure are selling them at the current price. Much as I love the K5, it's heavy and kind of no fun to use when compared to the other two.

I don't get the point of a K mount mirrorless unless it's the size of an MX. No doubt small cameras aren't for everyone, but there's definitely some kind of market for them. I'm not sure I would buy a Pentax mirrorless now.

The Samsung is pretty intriguing. Does it have an viewfinder option like the EPL2? Nice lens lineup Wide, normal, portrait. Pretty much all most people need.
06-08-2011, 03:07 PM   #734
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QuoteOriginally posted by stanleyk Quote
Much as I love the K5, it's heavy and kind of no fun to use when compared to the other two.
Interesting summary.

QuoteOriginally posted by stanleyk Quote
The Samsung is pretty intriguing. Does it have an viewfinder option like the EPL2?
Yup.
06-08-2011, 03:28 PM   #735
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QuoteOriginally posted by uccemebug Quote
Interesting summary.



Yup.
It's probably the last DSLR I'll ever get. It's a really great camera. It focuses fast enough for me. I tend to take maybe 15-24 photos at most so I'm not too sure what they could improve on that I would need. But that's just me.

Something the size of an MX might tempt me. Especially if it was a full frame camera but no more than $1500. That's my limit on camera bodies. I guess they don't really have a lot of lenses for full frame though. I personally don't Pentax will ever release one.

More likely and ASPC mirrorless. Most people I talk to about cameras have no idea about the sensors. To be honest I'm no expert. They usually either like the features or the look of the camera or are pretty heavily influenced by advertising. I don't hang out with a lot of camera junkies. i find their opinions quite interesting.
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