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02-02-2011, 06:32 AM   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by Cannikin Quote
It will, because no matter how you look at it, the replacement process for the stained K-5s will at the very least cost them millions (even tens of millions) of dollars in servicing, diverted manufacturing and shipping costs alone (not to mention potential losses in market value by the time refurbished cameras make it back to market). For a relatively small subsidiary like Pentax, that can cause a significant bite into their profits.

For Hoya as a whole, though, it's probably not too big a deal.
Well nobody knows how many stained sensor there were around. Dissatisfied customers tend to be very louder than satisfied ones with the Internet. Even though the K5 is a successful camera, I doubt that Pentax is selling hundred of throusands a month. Actually given Pentax market share, selling 100 000 DLRs a year would be resonable evaluation So speaking of a batch, 1000 faulty cameras can be an estimate of the total impact of this. Total cost: about 1 million dollars(not counting damage to image)

Can be 100 000, can be 10 millions since I had some difficulties in checking my facts, but tens of millions is not really realistic.

My 2 cents.

02-02-2011, 07:12 AM   #17
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A "quick and dirty" calculation:

- number of DSLR produced in Japan in 2010 : 13 million -see http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/d_2010.pdf

- Pentax market share: say 4 per cent.

- number of DSLR produced by Pentax in 2010: around 500,000 i.e. 40,000 per month

- K-5 share in Pentax production (upper-end body compared to total): tough estimate. 20 per cent.?

- if so: K-5 monthly production: 8,000

- units potentially affected: all those manufactured before mid-December, say the equivalent of 3 months of production (it started in August but with a ramp-up in the beginning), i.e. around 25,000 bodies.

The big questions are: how many units are actually defective (over time, potentially all) ? more important, how many people will notice their unit is defective?

Answer it, multiply by roughly $150 per unit to cover communication (with end-user, retailers, distributors), shipping and repair costs, subtract insurance reimbursements if any and you will have and idea of the impact on Pentax/Hoya P&L.

Couple of $ million, I would guess. Plus the margin lost on the lost sales (lack of availability due to production strain, bad publicity).
02-02-2011, 07:30 AM   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by Cannikin Quote
It will, because no matter how you look at it, the replacement process for the stained K-5s will at the very least cost them millions [...]
If I'm not mistaken, the stain problem was Sony's fault (or whoever packaged the chips, i.e., not Pentax).

Maybe, they made a smart deal to cover the damage. My preferred deal would have been 50k of the forthcoming Sony FF sensor for free BTW, that's a nice aspect of the Japanese business culture. You handle it like gentlemen and don't go to court
02-02-2011, 07:37 AM   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
If I'm not mistaken, the stain problem was Sony's fault (or whoever packaged the chips, i.e., not Pentax).

(...)
I'm not so sure. The problem seems to be linked to the filter - sensor assembly, which is done by Pentax themselves (not subcontracted). Sony only provide the sensor itself.

02-02-2011, 08:04 AM   #20
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QuoteOriginally posted by Christopher M.W.T Quote
It won't, because those that pay religious amount of attention are generally the ones who are obsessed with measurbation instead of taking photos.
So all the return costs (paid for by Pentax), time taken having the cameras checked, replacements shipped back (again paid by Pentax), loss of sales due to no stock because they are having to replace the stained units is not going to eat into their profits?

That doesn't include all the people holding off until the situation is completely sorted.

What little bubble do you live in?
02-02-2011, 09:27 AM   #21
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I check the forum everyday (well mostly some subforums, others have become very boring to me) and got aware about the stain issue very lately. I'm quite sure that most photographers who don't care to check in-depth the internet for their camera are not aware.

BTW, how many of you are aware of the severe issues of the autofocus on the Canon 1DsIII? I learned about it in pro sport photographer interviews, it's not like it was making the headlines of every photo website, yet it was severely affecting a whole line of business in pro photography.
02-02-2011, 10:37 AM   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by ghelary Quote
Well nobody knows how many stained sensor there were around. Dissatisfied customers tend to be very louder than satisfied ones with the Internet. Even though the K5 is a successful camera, I doubt that Pentax is selling hundred of throusands a month. Actually given Pentax market share, selling 100 000 DLRs a year would be resonable evaluation So speaking of a batch, 1000 faulty cameras can be an estimate of the total impact of this. Total cost: about 1 million dollars(not counting damage to image)

Can be 100 000, can be 10 millions since I had some difficulties in checking my facts, but tens of millions is not really realistic.

My 2 cents.
Mistral75 makes a good estimate.

Another way to estimate it is by looking at the serial numbers. Between the first batch of K-5s and the confirmed cleaned batch I believe there are aproximately 150,000 cameras. Now assuming that the K-7 and K-x ended production not long after the K-5 and K-r were introduced, those serial numbers consist pretty much entirely of K-rs and K-5s (the 645D making up a negligible amount). How many of those 150,000 are K-rs and K-5s? No way to know for sure, but 30-40,000 seems like a reasonable assumption.

Now let's say that half of all the affected cameras get sent in: 20,000 cameras. Remember that not only are customers individually sending their cameras in, but some retailers are also sending their entire stock back.

Shipping costs: I know for a fact that round trip shipping for my camera as paid by Pentax was $40. Shipping back to the manufacturing center for repair, assuming bulk shipping, maybe $10 per unit? $50 per unit = $1 million.

Repair costs: Disassembly, filter replacement, reassembly. $100 seems like a conservative estimate = $2 million.

Cleaning, repackaging, accessory replacement (battery, cables, etc.): $50? = $1 million

$4 million in direct servicing costs. The rest are harder to get a clear estimate because of market forces:

Loss of market value: It will likely be several months before refurbished cameras are ready to be sent back to market. In that time the market value of the camera will drop. How much? Maybe $100-200 = $2 to 4 million.

Diverted manufacturing: hard to quantify, but replacement of 20,000 cameras from the initial batch with new manufactured cameras means 20,000 cameras that cannot be sold at this moment. 20,000 * $1500 = $30 million in sales that will likely not be able to be accounted for in this quarter. This of course does not mean the money is lost (the cameras will be sold later once refurbished), but it will hurt their quarterly earnings and potentially investor confidence (stock market) for unquantifiable amounts = $???

Bad publicity/loss of reputation: $???

So direct losses are in the area of $6-8 million (servicing costs plus market value loss). Unquantifiable damage from reputation and quarterly earning reports.

Now that Pentax has made public statements about the K-5 stains, the public and retailers are now well aware of the problem, and may definitely see a rise in returns. It can easily break the $10 million mark in direct costs.

Again, Hoya itself can easily absorb the loss with no problems, but it doesn't look good on the record of Pentax, what with Hoya's management being very insistent that its Pentax division prove itself worthy of its $1 billion+ purchase price and be able to support itself without eating into the parent company's profits.

Last edited by Cannikin; 02-08-2011 at 10:45 PM.
02-02-2011, 10:47 AM   #23
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https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/ask-b-h-photo/130637-new-k-5-inventory.html

According to this quote from pentax, only 1% of K-5's were affected by the stain issue.

02-02-2011, 10:50 AM   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by qtopplings Quote
https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/ask-b-h-photo/130637-new-k-5-inventory.html

According to this quote from pentax, only 1% of K-5's were affected by the stain issue.
...and, according to the same guy, the cause is "moisture that became wedged inside the sensor" so I wouldn't rely to much on his statements...
02-02-2011, 11:03 AM   #25
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QuoteOriginally posted by qtopplings Quote
https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/ask-b-h-photo/130637-new-k-5-inventory.html

According to this quote from pentax, only 1% of K-5's were affected by the stain issue.
That's obviously "PR speak" (i.e. just as long as it sounds good and controls damage). A 1% failure rate for products is relatively standard fare for any electronic device and does not even warrant a public statement in the vast majority of cases (unless it is a safety issue).

The number of individually reported instances on this forum and DPReview alone is more than 1% of all K-5s manufactured in the affected period, let alone all the buyers in the world, not to mention retailers sending in their entire inventory. Even if we include the current stain-free batch, a 1% figure has no basis in reality.

Last edited by Cannikin; 02-02-2011 at 11:12 AM.
02-02-2011, 11:50 AM   #26
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@Spartan So true.
02-02-2011, 12:39 PM   #27
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FTR: the K-5's initial monthly production volume was 18.000 units.
02-02-2011, 01:06 PM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by Cannikin Quote
That's obviously "PR speak" (i.e. just as long as it sounds good and controls damage). A 1% failure rate for products is relatively standard fare for any electronic device and does not even warrant a public statement in the vast majority of cases (unless it is a safety issue).

The number of individually reported instances on this forum and DPReview alone is more than 1% of all K-5s manufactured in the affected period, let alone all the buyers in the world, not to mention retailers sending in their entire inventory. Even if we include the current stain-free batch, a 1% figure has no basis in reality.
Are you sure? Do you know how many cameras were manufactured and how many had stains? I don't think you do.
If the poster below is correct, and 18,000 cameras were built, then 1% would be 180. The poll of people with stains on this forum is about that much. So, its certainly a plausible number.
Again, I think the issue is way overblown. It reminds me of the iPhone 4 antenna issue.
02-02-2011, 02:28 PM   #29
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QuoteOriginally posted by qtopplings Quote
Are you sure? Do you know how many cameras were manufactured and how many had stains? I don't think you do.
If the poster below is correct, and 18,000 cameras were built, then 1% would be 180. The poll of people with stains on this forum is about that much. So, its certainly a plausible number.
Again, I think the issue is way overblown. It reminds me of the iPhone 4 antenna issue.
The poll was closed a long time ago. Many people have reported it since then.

Also, you cannot be seriously suggesting that every person in the world who has/had a K-5 with a stain is a registered poster on this forum and voted in that poll.
This forum is a very, very tiny population of Pentax users in the world, not to mention the fact that the single biggest Pentax market doesn't even use this site (Japan).

Last edited by Cannikin; 02-02-2011 at 02:35 PM.
02-02-2011, 02:37 PM   #30
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QuoteOriginally posted by Cannikin Quote
Mistral75 makes a good estimate.

Another way to estimate it is by looking at the serial numbers. Between the first batch of K-5s and the confirmed cleaned batch I believe there are aproximately 150,000 cameras.


You can not use serial numbers. There are no way to know if they are continuous. Often they aren't....
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