[ZaphodB]

Blende8 and anomaly... I agree that technically nosnoop should not say "the chance is 0" unless he has inside information confirming for sure that there will not be a full-frame announcement in January (and presumably he has not)... but, to be fair, he is basically right in that the chance is very unlikely indeed.

Firstly, consider that until now Canon has basically been alone in offering "full-frame". Nikon has only just now started using FF sensors, and only in their one absolute top-of-the-line professional body. Between Canon and Nikon, the 5D is the only full-frame body that is realistically "affordable" for anyone other than professionals or very rich amateurs. Why does Pentax need to compete here yet while Sony and Olympus don't? It just doesn't seem very realistic that it would be near the top of their priorities.

Secondly, consider that for several years Pentax released a series of cameras using the same sensor, each a slight improvement on the previous. The K10d was the first significant departure from this. Meanwhile in the lens department Pentax has been rather slow and not delivered in some areas... they have had to prioritise lower to mid range products at the expense of higher-end ones, because Pentax's resources are relatively limited (relative compared to the larger companies)... how did they go from this to being able to produce a full-frame camera in so short a time? (Yes they may have a lot of help from Hoya, but the merger is still pretty recent).

Finally, and here to my mind is the big one... what lenses would you put on a full-frame Pentax? A 50mm and some Limiteds? Unlike Canon and Nikon, Pentax no longer offers full-frame lenses with one or two exceptions. If they were going to announce a full-frame body, they would also have to announce full-frame lenses (and presumably this would mean updating all the old ones, possibly including SDM)... and then again the question becomes, do they really have the means?

So no, I think it's incredibly unlikely that Pentax will announce a full-frame camera in January. You might say I'm being negative, but look at it this way: I won't be disappointed in January, and if they do somehow achieve the highly improbable and announce an FF camera, I'll be very pleasantly surprised

[Richard Day]

Blende8 and anomaly... I agree that technically nosnoop should not say "the chance is 0" unless he has inside information confirming for sure that there will not be a full-frame announcement in January (and presumably he has not)... but, to be fair, he is basically right in that the chance is very unlikely indeed.

Firstly, consider that until now Canon has basically been alone in offering "full-frame". Nikon has only just now started using FF sensors, and only in their one absolute top-of-the-line professional body. Between Canon and Nikon, the 5D is the only full-frame body that is realistically "affordable" for anyone other than professionals or very rich amateurs. Why does Pentax need to compete here yet while Sony and Olympus don't? It just doesn't seem very realistic that it would be near the top of their priorities.

Secondly, consider that for several years Pentax released a series of cameras using the same sensor, each a slight improvement on the previous. The K10d was the first significant departure from this. Meanwhile in the lens department Pentax has been rather slow and not delivered in some areas... they have had to prioritise lower to mid range products at the expense of higher-end ones, because Pentax's resources are relatively limited (relative compared to the larger companies)... how did they go from this to being able to produce a full-frame camera in so short a time? (Yes they may have a lot of help from Hoya, but the merger is still pretty recent).

Finally, and here to my mind is the big one... what lenses would you put on a full-frame Pentax? A 50mm and some Limiteds? Unlike Canon and Nikon, Pentax no longer offers full-frame lenses with one or two exceptions. If they were going to announce a full-frame body, they would also have to announce full-frame lenses (and presumably this would mean updating all the old ones, possibly including SDM)... and then again the question becomes, do they really have the means?

So no, I think it's incredibly unlikely that Pentax will announce a full-frame camera in January. You might say I'm being negative, but look at it this way: I won't be disappointed in January, and if they do somehow achieve the highly improbable and announce an FF camera, I'll be very pleasantly surprised

Re: FF body & suitable lenses:

Officially I gues it's "No comment", as you'd expect they will want to keep all options open.

Un-officially I'm certain it is:

Body announcement in early 2008?: - Nada, Zilch, Zero, No chance, Nil, None, Non, Nein etc., etc.

FF lenses?: None on existing roadmap, most unlikely (zero) on the next.

However for FF film cameras (and APS digital) they still list:
FA-J 18-35, FA 20-35, FA-J 28-80, FA 28-105, FA-J 75-300, FA 35, FA 50, FA*300 f2.8, FA*600 f4.0, D-FA 50, D-FA 100 and the 3 FA Limiteds.

Okay, some are not exactly stellar, but several are outstanding and I'm sure that if (I said "if" not when!) they ever decide to produce a FF body, they would almost certainly introduce a couple of new high grade optics to go with it for starters. But honestly, I've heard absolutely nothing about FF, but I do know that the 645D project is still in their dreambook.

I could not (nor want to) afford a 645D or a FF body, even at the current cheapest FF prices, so am quite happy to carry on with APS-C. Even if a FF body could be bought for under US $1,000 I'm unlikely to switch back even then.

[Mats]

Blende8 and anomaly
So no, I think it's incredibly unlikely that Pentax will announce a full-frame camera in January. You might say I'm being negative, but look at it this way: I won't be disappointed in January, and if they do somehow achieve the highly improbable and announce an FF camera, I'll be very pleasantly surprised

Hi

Sound reasoning, a FF sensor would be a surprise. Price would decide if it is pleasant or not.

I really dont belive in a FF sensor but if the rumours are true about a different sensor supplier than Sony, maybe a combined development by Pentax and Samsung?, then i dont believe in a APS-C sensor either. They could have bought that from Sony without all the risks of switching sensor supplier. As i see it the sony APS-C sensors are at the same performance level as Canon sensors and a first time implementation of a new APS-C sensor from a different supplier would probably not bring any better performance than the latest Sony design. Concerning MP count and noise performance i dont think that there are any major steps to expect from APS-C sized sensors, further improvements might be as expensive to implement as to step up the sensor size.

In one of the many "Pentax management interviews" the question of possible future Pentax FF body was put and the answer was something like "all manufacturers are looking into FF sensors". So its in the Pentax minds and probably also in a roadmap but the question is how to get there.

My guess is that Pentax will introduce a 1.2-1.3 crop factor sensor, 1.2 crop sensor with the size 30*24 and the same pixelsize as todays K10D sensor would give a 18 MP sensor with possibility for a APS-C crop mode with 10 MP. This sensor would then be the base for all Pentax bodies, with a possibility for a future FF on a high end D3X competitor.

/Mats

[and]

Making a sensor with Samsung for Pentax/Samsung K bodies is a risky move and requires a lot of R&D cash and time. The advantage of course is that if the sensor is good then it becomes a huge plus for the camera because they can choose not to sell it to anyone else. Just like canon is enjoying the fruits of their own sensors without letting anyone else have them, fuji is doing the same.

I dont see that happening though... at least that would be a big surprise, unless Samsung by itself has been working hard to develop one to really start putting effort into their dSLRS, someone said they wanted to make their own dSLR next time and not just a rebadged one.

Still, I would be very very surprised if it was Samsung. Everything still points to Sony apart from everyone under NDA saying its not Sony. Its going to be very interesting to see who it turns out to be in the end, thats for sure..

[RMabo]

You are an example of what I was speaking about. You had an *ist in 2005 and in less than 2 years you get yourself a K10D (which now support the SDM lenses).

I still have my *ist DS, and I use it. I know many who has bought the K10D without selling the "old" *ist D, DS, DL or whatever. Of course we need lenses that are useable on both. The *ist D-serie was such perfect cameras with a high-love factor, the K10D not so. If I had to sell one of my cameras, I woulc choose the K10D without doubt. Simply because that with the *ist DS Pentax did everything right. Sure the K10D offers more features and user-friendliness, but it is not a giant leap in image quality (on most images I can't see a difference). It's larger, heavier, bulkier... It's the *ist DS that I choose when I'm travelling, leaving the K10D at home. If Pentax abandon support for the screwdrive in the older *ist D-bodies, than I'm pretty sure that many users will be very upset. I only bought the K10D because I had extra money to spend, but I kind of regret it. It would have been better if I bought new lenses instead, like one or two of the Limiteds. That would have given me more.

[RMabo]

Nah, I believe in APS-C still for Pentax-Samsung even if they make their own sensor.
Staying with Sony means no competetive edge against Sony or Nikon, and Sony favours Nikon. The *ist D was delayed several months because Sony couldn't deliver the sensor to Pentax, and they couldn't do this because Nikon sold so many bodies that they took all the production capacity. Nikon gets development versions of new Sony-sensors before Pentax gets them, so Pentax will always be behind if they stay with Sony. Pentax can never catch up as long as they are dependant on Sony for the sensors, so Pentax *need* another sensor supplier.

[Mats]

Making a sensor with Samsung for Pentax/Samsung K bodies is a risky move and requires a lot of R&D cash and time. The advantage of course is that if the sensor is good then it becomes a huge plus for the camera because they can choose not to sell it to anyone else. Just like canon is enjoying the fruits of their own sensors without letting anyone else have them, fuji is doing the same.

I dont see that happening though... at least that would be a big surprise, unless Samsung by itself has been working hard to develop one to really start putting effort into their dSLRS, someone said they wanted to make their own dSLR next time and not just a rebadged one.

Still, I would be very very surprised if it was Samsung. Everything still points to Sony apart from everyone under NDA saying its not Sony. Its going to be very interesting to see who it turns out to be in the end, thats for sure..

It would for sure take a lot of R&D efforts to develop a new sensor, but if Panasonic could do it for the FourThirds system why should not Samsung/Pentax be able to do it ? Theres a lot of things happening behind the scenes that are not officially announced. I do not expect to see any official announcements of Samsung/Pentax sensor until january next year.
The quietness from Samsung/Pentax is the only way they can play the game and in this case i believe that the words that have not been spoken says the most.

What were the driving forces for Pentax/Samsung to start to cooperate? Sony and KM had some months earlier announced a partnership that later evolved to Sony buying KM camera division. I think Pentax saw this coming and started to look elsewhere for a electronics partner since Pentax wanted independance from a possible future competitor.

This is of course all speculation, but it´s fun! Just cant see why a Samsung/Pentax sensor is ruled out by so many. 3 months to go...

/Mats

[and]

so Pentax *need* another sensor supplier.

Maybe so, but they dont grow on trees. I agree that Samsung can be an option if Samsung are planning to get serious about dSLRs. But I kinda see that happening a bit down the road. And the k10d showed that they can edge out Nikon and Sony with other features. The a100 had the same sensor as the k10d but its really not nearly as good a camera imo.

And, as has been agrued before, Pentax's lack of a higher end body means they can put whatever they want into the k10d class camera without canibalizing sales of higher end bodies, something nikon and canon cannot do. Altho I really think Pentax should expand and release a higher end body.

[philmorley]

Hi

My guess is that Pentax will introduce a 1.2-1.3 crop factor sensor, 1.2 crop sensor with the size 30*24 and the same pixelsize as todays K10D sensor would give a 18 MP sensor with possibility for a APS-C crop mode with 10 MP. This sensor would then be the base for all Pentax bodies, with a possibility for a future FF on a high end D3X competitor.

/Mats

I'm not expecting it but 1.25-1.3 crop is my hope, that extra of length compared to full frame, but that bit wider, bigger viewfinder, less noise etc etc and should still be able to keep SR as well (which apparently cant / highly unlikely of FF)

[RMabo]

Maybe so, but they dont grow on trees. I agree that Samsung can be an option if Samsung are planning to get serious about dSLRs.

Samsung are very serious about DSLR's. Samsung is a big player in digicompacts, but digicompacts is a low margin market - it is the DSLR-business where the money is. Since Samsung wants to be a big player in digital imaging, DSLR's are vital for their growth. The reason for signing a partnership with Pentax is because Samsung knows that they can't just come up with their own mount, they need support of lenses and accessories. Pentax K-mount was the vital reason for Samsung to talk to Pentax, and Pentax was also in need for a partner to help lowering R&D-cost and also speed up developing. It is a win-win for both of them.

Samsung are already doing CMOS-sensors for their phone-cameras, so they have R&D and production for CMOS-sensors. Team this up with Pentax R&D development for sensors and you may have a winner.

If it is not Samsung, then I believe it is a Kodak. It could also be a Kodak - Samsung - Pentax deal.
Kodak and Pentax were working on the 645D, so maybe Kodak was called for to enhance the sensor Pentax were already working on, with Samsung to produce it. Perhaps the new RGB-technology is based upon recent Kodak patents in the area.

[and]

Yes this is a distinct possibility. I just wouldnt expect it so soon, but who knows. Its very interesting to see how this plays out

[ZaphodB]

I could not (nor want to) afford a 645D or a FF body, even at the current cheapest FF prices, so am quite happy to carry on with APS-C. Even if a FF body could be bought for under US $1,000 I'm unlikely to switch back even then.

I would definitely buy a FF body for under $1000... I haven't invested in DA glass and I still like to use both film and digital, so a full-frame system would appeal to me... but then of course, over here it would not cost $1000 (£500) but £1000, which would be a different matter... but even so, what are the chances of Pentax or anyone else producing a full-frame camera at that price anytime soon? Slim enough for me to put it well out of my mind and hope they just continue improving and expanding the non-FF system. If they do that well and continue to attract customers then it's more likely that they will be able to offer FF at some point in the future.

If they made it their priority to release a full-frame camera now (at a full-frame price), that would be a bit mad... it would be like going to your local sandwich shop, and being told they don't have anything fresh except for some nice Kobe beef if you have £100 to spare

[benjikan]

Nah, I believe in APS-C still for Pentax-Samsung even if they make their own sensor.
Staying with Sony means no competetive edge against Sony or Nikon, and Sony favours Nikon. The *ist D was delayed several months because Sony couldn't deliver the sensor to Pentax, and they couldn't do this because Nikon sold so many bodies that they took all the production capacity. Nikon gets development versions of new Sony-sensors before Pentax gets them, so Pentax will always be behind if they stay with Sony. Pentax can never catch up as long as they are dependant on Sony for the sensors, so Pentax *need* another sensor supplier.

"Pentax *need* another sensor supplier."

Yes...That is correct...Or manufacturer

[benjikan]

Yes this is a distinct possibility. I just wouldnt expect it so soon, but who knows. Its very interesting to see how this plays out

At the January Press conference there will be some interesting developments...

[and]

At the January Press conference there will be some interesting developments...

Well we all know january is going to be interesting thats for sure. I hope the new sensor is good