[Franky2step]

Well, there are the rumored D400, 7DMkII and K-3, so... maybe not yet?

Makes me really wonder what a D400 will be spec'd at given it would be superior to the D7100....

[monochrome]

Bigger wafers are more economical and don't generate higher defects rates AFAIK, but yes, the fab must be able to handle them.

This actually isn't really true. The cost of significantly more capital necessary to develop, source and install 300mm wafer fab, the mask and the lens to burn product, as well as to build the specialized building around them (vibration damped entire FLOORS, for heaven's sake) can negate all the theoretical benefit of cutting more sensors from the finished wafer.

Further, there is a yield limit. If there is a constant "known" quantity of defective areas per unit of wafer measure, then the larger the sensor, the higher the likelihood any one sensor will contain a defecticve area. That fact is a significant limiter to rapid price reduction for FF sensors as volume ramps. They simply have to throw too many of them away compared the faulty / working ratio for smaller sensors.

This may not actually be true, but I have read that the Japan earthquake damaged fab plants enough (knocked fab tables and floors off "true") that in some cases, even though capital costs were not fully recovered, after insurance was collected it made business sense to build new fabs for larger finished product than to restore the old technology. Thus the potential supply of FF sensors has increased sooner than might have been directed by the normal capital-recovery cycle.

[RBellavance]

Makes me really wonder what a D400 will be spec'd at given it would be superior to the D7100....

Just off the top of my head: dual processors, better fps, even more AF points, better WR, more external controls...

[ogl]

SAFOX X+ with 21 point AF system and VF 100% at 1.00x.

Will we see?

[Kunzite]

monochrome:
I don't actually know how much it costs, but I was basing my affirmation on major microprocessor companies going with larger wafers. The idea that it's very expensive to switch to a larger wafer fab sounds reasonable to me (and this is an understatement), and could indeed require large sale volumes to become profitable.

About the second paragraph, I was talking about defects/area which I doubt (but again, I have no hard data) it would be higher for the larger wafer.

[Franky2step]

SAFOX X+ with 21 point AF system and VF 100% at 1.00x.

Will we see?

Look at what Ricoh has done with the K5iis regarding autofocus(-3EV) and the anti-alias filter, in just a short amount of time. I am pretty confident the next semi-pro camera from Pentax/Ricoh will be a big step up. Of course if it is only mirror-less, I won't care.

[falconeye]

Further, there is a yeild limit.

It's computable so I did. Been there, done that.

[monochrome]

It's computable so I did. Been there, done that.

I think I knew that you did. I was hoping to point out that so many of us (excepting you and probably Digitalis) neglect to consider the cost of capital in these speculations. To me the most interesting considerations in the entire digital camera evolution are the capital implications and such things as the unexpected consequences of the earthquake - that it should intially have been considerd devastating for technology advancement but has instead contributed to a more rapid technology redistribution (FF moving down the price scale).

I am truly intellectually stimulated to contemplate the similarities between what happened in the US to airlines, Land Line telephone companies and Eastman Kodak over the last 25 years as computers and related technology allowed individuals to remove middlemen from thier product streams (it isn't all good, either).

[Anvh]

ICs are not film sheets, obviously you cannot cut how you want.
You can decide to get whatever sensor sizes you want from a wafer, within the equipment's constraints, even mixing them. I guess that's what Winder was talking about? But once the process starts, there is no turning back: cutting the wafer differently than the pre-chosen layout would only result in useless wafer pieces.

Thanks you got it.

[redrockcoulee]

Makes me really wonder what a D400 will be spec'd at given it would be superior to the D7100....

A beefier body for those conditions that simply being WP is not good enough. Additionally some people find the D7000 too small and even the D200/300/700 too small hence Nikon may continue supporting three body sizes, two with FF and two not.

[kenyee]

It can be me but i'm not reading you can simply cut anything out of it that you want.
If you want to cut 20 large sensor like in your example, then why not cut smaller sensors around the damaged bits?

OMG <facepalm> :-P
Take a chip design course (not gate aray but full custom w/ layouts at the mask level).
Seriously no :-PPPP

[Winder]

SAFOX X+ with 21 point AF system and VF 100% at 1.00x.

Will we see?

I hope we see 51 AF points and a VF that is bigger and brighter than the Sony A900.

[apathey2131978]

Someone just wake me up when the camera, Whatever it is ... finally comes out. . . . . all this speculation is just that and yet a enjoy dreaming, in the end it just makes me delirious

[ogl]

I hope we see 51 AF points and a VF that is bigger and brighter than the Sony A900.

I'm not...

[christiansen]

I simply expect K3 to be fault-free as current Pentax gear - since QC issues seem to be the norm these days. Otherwise, bring on the pain & suffering!