Originally posted by falconeye Moore's Law is a topic which could fuel the discussions of an entire forum. You are both oversimplifying things.
Of course, there is no such law as Moore's. However, it is a heuristic rule which prooved true over stretched periods of time in the past. It is still somewhat applicable when it comes to feature sizes.
The most obvious breach of the rule is the 3 GHz barrier which processors reach but refuse to cross since 2002 (the Northwood Pentium 4).
It remains to be seen how this may ultimatively bring progress in the field of semiconductors to a halt, or not. The implications for our civilization and its future are huge. Personally, I believe everything will depend on our ability to scale one Exaflop down to fit into shoe box. We'll see ...
As for EVFs ... A high contrast and high resolution EVF has to be a larger chip than the current generation uses to be (they use minuscule chips). Already for its contrast abilities. It is like sensor size: if a chip which is coupled to an optical system is too small then there are problems which are expensive to solve.
So, future high end EVFs will use large chips which will both bring betetr resolution and better contrast. Current technology can already do this. But it won't be cheap and Moore's law won't help. However, progress in OLED technology will.
(I apologise in advance for saying some things that are obvious to you).
Of course I'm simplifying things in the space available! (And I said earlier "If you mean "it is an observation, not a "physical law", true"). But my earlier analogies didn't rely on Moore's Law. They were observations from a career in the computer industry of the trends from mechanical to electronic subsystems. My observations are both
that it happens, and that
once it happens a whole lot of other things happen
because of it. (Even when I was helping to design new systems for the future, I was often caught out by advances in the industry where I just thought "I never saw that coming!" It has reached the stage, about 48 years after I first programmed a computer, that instead of being surprised at such advances, I'm sometimes surprised when they don't happen).
Moore's Law gets stated as numbers (for example "double the processing power every 2 years" or some variant of that). But there are important implications behind that. It doesn't happen just because someone says "two years are up, now let's double the speed"! It happens because of (and enabled by) a lot of other advances: fabrication processes and technologies; materials sciences and technologies; ingenuity in exploiting existing technologies in new ways or in by-passing problems that can't currently be solved directly; etc. And some of those are not limited just to raw processing power, but may be transferable to other aspects of the final products.
The penetration of EVFs into different areas of photography depends on the demands of those areas. For example, when I am shooting a plane or bird in flight, or a racing bike or car, or jetski freestyle, perhaps at 7 fps, do I need "better resolution and better contrast"? I think things are happening too fast for me to exploit those. I could probably manage with a silhouette! I assume (without ever having used an EVF for those subjects) that lag will be one problem, and any auto-focus limitations will
certainly be a problem. (Just as it is with my K-5IIs at the moment).
But in my studio, a different set of demands applies. I need to be able to judge subtleties of tones and colours and expressions, and it would be useful to have clipping indicators in case the model has moved away from the place around which the lights are arranged. I don't know how much lag would be tolerable, but other EVF limitations such as the "tearing" of the field-sequential LCD used in the new Panasonic GX7 may be acceptable. After all, I have used my K-5IIs tethered in the studio. I was shooting vertically downward with the camera near the ceiling), and (in effect) using a laptop as a sort of electronic viewing aid. Even with those massive delays, I still got some useful shots.
I am aware that the processing performance curves are no longer following Moore's Law in the same way, (they lag behind), and there are many who think that it no longer predicts the future. Then I read speculation that quantum computing will put things back on track! I have no idea who is right, or even if the language they are using is the same. But what I am observing is that EVFs in cameras being announced by major manufacturers are not close to stagnating. I expect to see far more advances in EVFs than in OVFs over the next few years, and that is
not because OVFs are so far ahead and don't need advances. Unless someone knows of a fundamental limitation that will
forever exclude EVFs from important areas of photography, I'll assume they will gradually take over from OVFs and cause the latter to become niche subsystems. We'll see over the next few years.