[RonHendriks1966]

- Developping speciality cameras

There is currently no camera optimised for shooting people (color accuracy) shootng BW, shooting IR, astrophotography etc... all are small niches. But a small engineering to optimise achitecture, bayer matrix, remove IR filter add visible light filter etc, and optimising sensor signal processing can lead to cameras much better than current solutions. And add a lot to the k-system attractivity

Well I don't believe in these products as product to sell and make money on, but if there is a market for, then the GXR with several different modules with K-mount and a some off the mentioned sensorspecifications could be the way to go.

[Zygonyx]

Which question? Or do you mean problem?

As a matter of fact, contrast AF is more accurate than phase AF (in many cases at least). Or do you mean it the other way round?

But even contrast AF is limited when the subject is moving or the camera sees shake. A blurry or noisy input signal converts to limited focus accuracy. In such cases, phase AF can (today) deliver more accurate focus. Esp. K-5 with its big AF relay lens.

I mean the example of Fuji, who has found the way to include "phase correlation sensors" inbetween photosites of the super-CCD sensors of the F300EXR and Z800.
When they are able to do the same in APS-C and even bigger sensors, that will give much more accuracy to AF.

[deejjjaaaa]

d. The current lens/camera mechanical mounts will all be obsolete in 10 years. The standard lens mount of tomorrow's lenses will be an electrical connection bus, such as the one that Ricoh has designed in the GXR.

what do you mean ? all electrical control was done long time ago... Canon for example did this in 1987...

[deejjjaaaa]

Ricoh is a huge corporation, but up to now has been camera niche. Every press release I've seen suggests that they bought Pentax in an effort to change that.

sure, again one niche company, buys another niche company and you think that it somehow will give it a power to take on mass market ... you just expand a range of your niche products...

[deejjjaaaa]

It is not the same. The 645D domminates a market segment where the buyers are willing to pay $5000 for a lens alone.
Theres no reason a Pentax FF camera will take a higher market share of the FF market than they do for the APS market. That means 5% share of a 5% slice of the total DSLR market; clearly unsustainable and thats why we haven't seen an FF DSLR from Pentax yet. And then theres the issue of the lens line-up...

the flaw in your logic is that you do not need to dominate the mass market - you just need to have your niche - and be profitable there... so just price the camera to be profitable and find a niche... 645D foes not dominate MF market - it has a niche in it... 645D was OK to be put in production w/ just one new lens, Ricoh M-module is OK w/o any M-mount lenses (unless they still have that 43lim in stock)... so you do not need actually a lot of modern and current lenses for a niche FF camera - there are enough people who can buy that to use w/ their existing lenses... do you think that there are less than 10000 people w/ pentax lenses that will pay above market price for a FF dSLR from Pentax ? you always stick in your mind that somehow Pentax need to take on C&N&S on mass market - they do not need that... K5 does not make a dent in a global picture for C&N&S APS-C market... it is a typical niche camera.

[jsherman999]

sure, again one niche company, buys another niche company and you think that it somehow will give it a power to take on mass market ... you just expand a range of your niche products...

.

That would be true if Ricoh bought Pentax and stupidly just let it sit, dying on the vine.

They indicated that 'Pentax' would be a capital conduit to some sort of market push involving interchangeable lens cameras.

In what tier(s)/mounts they make that push... well, we're waiting with baited breath to find out.

(and again - Ricoh is only niche with regards to cameras - up until now, maybe. It's actually a huge corporation with access to lots of capital.)

.

[deejjjaaaa]

.

That would be true if Ricoh bought Pentax and stupidly just let it sit, dying on the vine.


They indicated that 'Pentax' would be a capital conduit to some sort of market push involving interchangeable lens cameras.

yes, just more niche segments that's it... Q-mount, K-mount, 645-mount cameras... all niche segments (regardless of the huge amount of legacy Kmoun lenses)

[RonHendriks1966]

do you think that there are less than 10000 people w/ pentax lenses that will pay above market price for a FF dSLR from Pentax ?

Well I do think that that number is not enough!

For 645D they have a contract (If i'm informed right) for 300-500 sensors a month. If I make an estimation to have a 3-5 years production (a midlife update would be possible) then the production numbers would run from 10.800 to 30.000 and for wich the low number would make a profit and the high number would make a huge profit.

So looking into a Full Frame camera that wil cost a lot less your numbers would need to go up. I think that a production set from 1.000 to 2.000 units a month for again a 3-5 year periode (a midlife update would be possible) will give a total production between 36.000 and 120.000 units.

[Pål Jensen]

the flaw in your logic is that you do not need to dominate the mass market - you just need to have your niche - and be profitable there... so just price the camera to be profitable and find a niche... 645D foes not dominate MF market - it has a niche in it... 645D was OK to be put in production w/ just one new lens, Ricoh M-module is OK w/o any M-mount lenses (unless they still have that 43lim in stock)... so you do not need actually a lot of modern and current lenses for a niche FF camera - there are enough people who can buy that to use w/ their existing lenses... do you think that there are less than 10000 people w/ pentax lenses that will pay above market price for a FF dSLR from Pentax ? you always stick in your mind that somehow Pentax need to take on C&N&S on mass market - they do not need that... K5 does not make a dent in a global picture for C&N&S APS-C market... it is a typical niche camera.

But haveing a niche of a niche is not sustainable. The 645D sells more than all MF digital put together; three months of 645D production is the whole global annual sales of MF digital before the 645D was released. It is also in a market segment that is willing to pay. An FF Pentax needs to compete with not only with the FF offerings form Nikon and Canon but also with Pentax APS DSLR as it will use the same lenses as the latter.
I agree that Pentax could sell about 10 000 FF cameras mainly to people sitting on a pool of K-mount lenses. That will make it a financial disaster. We won't see it anytime soon unless Pentax wants a loss leader for marketing reasons. Or, unless the DSLR marked change in favour of FF soon...

[deejjjaaaa]

But haveing a niche of a niche is not sustainable.

it is... there are enough examples around of companies that are serving a niche markets or have divisions that serve niche markets... Cosina, Ricoh itself, Leica, etc

[deejjjaaaa]

The 645D sells more than all MF digital put together; three months of 645D production is the whole global annual sales of MF digital before the 645D was released.

you certainly know that this is not a sustained sales... you might also try to extrapolate the first day of sales to make you numbers more impressive... 645D probably beat C&N FF cameras that day

[deejjjaaaa]

Well I do think that that number is not enough!

For 645D they have a contract (If i'm informed right) for 300-500 sensors a month.

such contracts are for a fixed amount of sensors w/ certain deliveries per time frame, they are not just per month w/o commitment to buy a certain amount total... Pentax had to buy a run of several thousands

So looking into a Full Frame camera that wil cost a lot less your numbers would need to go up.

sure, and sensor will cost a lot less and sales will be a lot more and you still can sell sufficiently over the mass market FF cameras price because you do not need to outsell C&N&S - because as there are people who buy SD1 or Q there will be K mount diehards who will buy that Pentax FF even again as K5 it will not make any noticeable percentage numbers in any worthwhile statistics... did you ever see Ricoh modules in any statistics ? yet they have no issues to make them and w/o any need to compete w/ any m43, etc...

[uccemebug]

- Developping speciality camerasThere is currently no camera optimised for shooting people (color accuracy) shootng BW, shooting IR, astrophotography etc... all are small niches. But a small engineering to optimise achitecture, bayer matrix, remove IR filter add visible light filter etc, and optimising sensor signal processing can lead to cameras much better than current solutions. And add a lot to the k-system attractivity

This sounds like GXR space to me.

(edit -- and I see that Ron made the same point some seven hours ago)

[Pål Jensen]

sure, and sensor will cost a lot less and sales will be a lot more and you still can sell sufficiently over the mass market FF cameras price because you do not need to outsell C&N&S - because as there are people who buy SD1 or Q there will be K mount diehards who will buy that Pentax FF even again as K5 it will not make any noticeable percentage numbers in any worthwhile statistics... did you ever see Ricoh modules in any statistics ? yet they have no issues to make them and w/o any need to compete w/ any m43, etc...

If it was that simple Pentax would have released an FF camera a decade ago.

[RioRico]

sure, again one niche company, buys another niche company and you think that it somehow will give it a power to take on mass market

Except that Ricoh isn't a niche company. It's a major player -- just not in cameras yet. Ricoh is the leading photocopier maker. So this is more as if HP had bought Motorola in order to gain access to the communications market, to expand their range of possibilities. BTW that is just a rough parallel -- Ricoh isn't HP and Pentax isn't Motorola, those are just examples. But Ricoh certainly has the resources to BECOME a major player in cameras.