Originally posted by falconeye I'd say Sony is the only good sensor source for Pentax, be it APSC or FF. Sony has a track record for not making exclusive deals. Their sensor business is rather independent. What they did though is give some customers (Nikon) a head start with some of the sensors, like the one going into the D90 which later was made available for Pentax going into their K-x. This lead time was not repeated for the K-5 sensor which Sony, Nikon and Pentax were all allowed to use at the same time.
There is little to none Nikon design expertise in the previous Sony FF sensor and I don't see this to be different now. After all, they just need to double the area of the K-5 sensor. I assume Sony offered the FF sensor to Hoya but that wasn't on their agenda (busy to sell to Ricoh).
You may be right that it may be a bit tough for Pentax to get access to a the new Sony FF sensors. But that shouldn't matter. They need to prepare a body and lens strategy too. So, a year delay is ok and Sony will then most likely give it to Pentax too.
Disclaimer: All this is purely speculative ...
Yes, all speculative.
But the dominant evidence is provided by Sony's issuance of the A850 and its sudden non-existence. This may have something to do with Nikon's ability to out-market Sony in the FF market; so Sony dedicates FF supply to Nikon and re-tools for NEX and other projects. Sony clearly had a strategic decision to make in being an industrial supplier to a competitor at large profits, or suffer losses supplying itself. Clearly someone at Sony's Head Office made that prioritization.
I can see Sony making a strategic decision to be a turnkey FF supplier to Nikon as a hedge against Canon, but not to 2 FF competitors, including a new entrant Pentax. That does not make sense. Sony did not exit its FF entry-level to make room for Pentax as a commodity CMOS FF sensor supplier; Sony likely made a partial exit to leverage an extended agreement with Nikon who can deliver. The A900 remains in production or NOS to keep some FF loyalty.
Sony will re-enter when Nikon and Canon have grown the market and driven fab costs lower through their incremental volumes. Pentax cannot do that. Sony can with a FF mirrorless, which is the speculation around Sony for 2012. Let Nikon blood the new sensors in DSLR's while Sony tries something different. The last thing Sony wants is Pentax in the mix with low volumes and separate technical demands.
Unit sales for FF are so low there is really space only for 2 players for the foreseeable future. Pentax cannot enter the FF market and make it bigger as Sony failed coming from a much larger installed base with superior distribution and marketing. There is a very limited # of consumers willing or able to spend over $2,000 for a FF DSLR body, especially when the whole future of the DSLR vs. mirrorless is a factor.
And the whole "Asian market" hype is nonsense. It's still a playing field where Canon and Nikon have huge leads already. Pentax has no competitive advantage there nor market opportunity where others have failed or been lax.